The July movement was short-lived, but its impact was immense. Through this movement, students ousted Sheikh Hasina—who considered herself indispensable to the country—and took control of national power. The young leaders of the movement quickly experienced power: some gained institutional authority, while others acquired unrestricted influence. In this context, they eventually formed a political party called the National Citizen Party (NCP).
From the beginning, many referred to this student-formed party as the 'King’s Party', and with reason. Today’s 'kings' in the country owe their positions to these students. The NCP not only formed a political party but also placed their representatives in government, influencing many bureaucratic decisions. Some have even called it a 'government within the government'.
Centre of power and politics of pressure
In Bangladesh, people usually support students during movements but push them aside once the struggle succeeds. As a result, seasoned politicians often take the lead. The young leaders who raised the flag of independence later formed Jasad and gradually became irrelevant in national politics.
The challenges faced by NCP leaders during grassroots outreach appear to have strengthened their determination. From the outset, the NCP has practiced pressure politics, forcing the government to accept many of its demands. Most recently, the election commission had to redesign the Shapla (water lily) emblem under pressure from the NCP, who insisted on the party’s symbol being recognised.
From its inception, the NCP had two clear objectives: to remain at the centre of power and to continue practicing pressure politics. The party has never hidden its intentions, openly stating that it must remain in government to protect the interests of the July movement. NCP convener Nahid Islam has said that the two student advisers in the caretaker government were representatives of the people’s uprising. On multiple occasions, they have publicly exerted pressure to advance their demands. In this way, from its very beginning, the NCP has progressed with significant influence and official recognition.
NCP searching for its path
Elections are scheduled for February. The current government will step down, and a new government will take office. Without the shadow of the existing government, the NCP will have to navigate politics on its own. How prepared they are and their efforts to maintain influence have become a central topic in current political discussions. From its inception, the NCP assumed it would become the country’s second-largest party and challenge the BNP. In line with this, the NCP formed various alliances with Jamaat, believing that with Jamaat’s support, it could pose a significant challenge to the BNP.
However, Jamaat has benefited the most from this collaboration. Their anti-liberation war role has been largely erased, and university students have cast votes for Jamaat as a complement to the NCP. Due to organisational weaknesses and the immaturity of its leaders, the NCP has not progressed far. Many of its activities remained limited to the personal influence of certain leaders.
Through its alliance and organisational structure, Jamaat received a significant 'boost' as the second party. The NCP is now perhaps realising that Jamaat has overshadowed them as the second party; at best, the NCP may now be the third-largest party. Another shift is gradually becoming visible in politics. After losing in DUCSU-RACSU elections, the BNP suffered a significant setback in the political arena. However, it has now recovered and returned to a top position.
Recently, Nahid Islam stated, “One must think carefully before forming an alliance with someone who bears historical responsibility.” Nasiruddin Patwari explicitly said that the anti-liberation Jamaat can never come to power in Bangladesh. The NCP may now be realising that remaining aligned with Jamaat could increase its losses. It likely wants to stay close to power without being labeled a right-wing party. Many observers suggest that it may now prioritise a compromise with the BNP.
The question now is: how likely is it for the Shapla Koli (bud) to bloom under the Dhaner Sheesh (sheaf of paddy) symbol? At this moment, the situation is unclear. The NCP leaders—Nahid, Akhtar, Hasnat, and Sarjis—have already announced the constituencies they wish to contest, but the BNP has already declared its candidates in those areas. Conversely, BNP has left constituencies of JASAD, Ganasamhati, Gana Adhikar, and Manna open. Moreover, BNP is now searching for young leaders outside the NCP who represent the spirit of the July movement. It is no coincidence that Snigdha, the brother of July martyr Mughdho, has joined the BNP.
Meanwhile, newspapers reported that the NCP requested 20 constituencies and three ministries from the BNP as a condition for contesting elections in cooperation. BNP has not commented on this. NCP leader Nahid Islam, however, denied these reports, stating that the party will contest all 300 seats. Which of the two accounts is accurate remains debated. In politics, nothing is ever final, and discussions continue.
Pros and cons of an alliance between the two parties
If an alliance is formed and the BNP wins the election, the NCP’s gains are easy to predict. They will be able to continue operating according to their current political model. They will have people in government, some seats in parliament, and, if necessary, they can continue exerting pressure from outside. Being part of the government will increase the NCP’s visibility and influence, helping expand the party’s reach.
What about the BNP? If they form the government, they will, at most, enjoy a short period of relative calm—what Western democracies call a 'honeymoon period'.
If the NCP remains in opposition, Jamaat’s movements against a potential BNP government would intensify, meaning the BNP would not find it easy to govern, even if they win. The July movement has established that it is not easy to suppress an opposition party through violence or imprisonment.
What losses might the BNP face if it forms an alliance with the NCP? In the short term, having a 'government within the government' will create complications. The NCP will put pressure on the BNP in many areas, and its younger leaders will make significant demands. In the long term, the NCP could enhance its party’s image and reach while in government. In the next election, they may surpass Jamaat to become the second-strongest party competing with the BNP. As the second party, the NCP could eventually pose a greater challenge to the BNP than Jamaat.
This election will be challenging for the NCP. They will need patience. Given the age of its leaders, the NCP has the potential to be active in Bangladeshi politics for another 50 years. They should avoid rushing into power like JASAD did and instead focus on practicing the positive aspects of politics.
Simply invoking the 'July spirit' will not give them any additional advantage. By engaging in politics like established politicians, they will be able to communicate their differences to the public. Moreover, pressure politics alone is not popular with voters. If the NCP works on these aspects, it is likely to achieve good results in future elections.
*Saleh Uddin Ahmad is a writer and political analyst
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#Opinion is the author’s own.