Russia's blockade of Ukraine is a threat to global food security — and Bangladesh should take note

At a time when 7.8 per cent of the world’s population faces hunger, one of the world’s most important grain routes is again under attack. Russia is choking off Ukraine’s ability to export food through the Black Sea, the Danube River and overland corridors. Its deliberate strikes on ports, warehouses, inland logistics, shipping and agricultural infrastructure are an assault on global food security, disrupting trade, energy and fertiliser markets.

This is a hard economic and humanitarian fact: when grain cannot leave Ukraine, global markets tighten, prices rise and vulnerable countries pay the price.

The timing could hardly be worse. As Ukraine entered the harvest season in August, attacks on transport routes and export facilities trapped grain, oilseeds and other agricultural products inside the country. Grain exports in August were cut by half compared with 2025. International prices have already reacted. And the pressure may intensify in the months ahead.

In October, Ukraine risks running out of storage capacity. By November, more than 9 million tonnes of grain, oilseeds and meal could remain outside available storage. A harvest capable of feeding millions could instead be left stranded. If farmers are unable to sell this season’s crop, they will have less cash for the next sowing season, reducing future production and compounding the crisis into next year.

That matters in a world where an estimated 645 million people already face hunger. Disruptions to maritime routes, energy markets, trade flows and humanitarian logistics do reverberate far beyond the immediate conflict zone as the concurrent crisis in the Middle East demonstrates. The most exposed countries and communities are the least able to absorb another shock to food prices and supplies.

Bangladesh is one of the countries that should be watching particularly closely. Wheat is this country’s second-most-consumed cereal, and Bangladesh relies on imports for more than 80 per cent of its wheat-based food needs.

That dependence leaves Bangladesh exposed to disruptions in major wheat-producing regions and to instability along global trade routes. It is not a theoretical risk. When the war disrupted supply starting four years ago, Bangladesh felt the consequences quickly through higher import costs and rising domestic prices for wheat and wheat-based foods.  Inflation has remained high. 

Russia has understood this from the start. Weaponising food insecurity has been part of its broader strategy since the beginning of its full-scale war of aggression. By targeting Ukraine’s export routes, Russia is not only trying to weaken Kyiv. It is also testing how much pressure the rest of the world will tolerate when food becomes collateral damage. Bangladesh is part of the collateral damage.

Ukraine’s role in world food markets explains why this matters so much. Before February 2022, Ukraine supplied 15 per cent of global corn exports, 10 per cent of wheat exports, 15 to 20 per cent of barley exports and fully 50 per cent of sunflower oil exports. It has long extended its agricultural reach deep into Asian markets. A strong harvest is again expected this year. But harvests only contribute to food security if they can reach the ports, the ships and, ultimately, the people who need them.

International efforts to ease the pressure have become a critical alternative route for Ukrainian exports and a lifeline for Ukraine’s economy.

But while overland and river alternatives can mitigate the damage, they cannot substitute for safe maritime navigation on the scale global food markets require. Indeed, freedom of maritime navigation is a global security concern, including to Bangladesh.

Open and predictable international food trade is not an abstract concern but an issue on which responsible partners need to take a stand. That is why we call for an urgent moratorium on attacks against grain export facilities, infrastructure and civilian shipping in the Black Sea. It would protect critical infrastructure, restore some stability to food markets and give farmers, traders and import-dependent governments the predictability they need.

The world must not allow food to become yet another weapon of war. A ceasefire leading to a just and lasting peace is necessary to end the daily suffering of Ukrainians and to stabilise a global food system on which millions depend. If Russia ends its war and stops attacking Ukraine’s trade lifelines, the benefits will be felt far beyond Europe — including in Bangladesh, where food security depends not only on what is grown at home, but on what can safely move across the sea.

*The opinion is written by the ambassadors and high commissioners of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Spain to Bangladesh: Michael Miller, Sarah Cooke, Ajit Singh, Christian Brix Møller, Jean-Marc Séré-Charlet, Rüdiger Lotz, Antonio Alessandro, Joris van Bommel, Håkon Arald Gulbrandsen and Gabriel Sistiaga Ochoa de Chinchetru.