Trump’s special envoy due in Dhaka to sound out Bangladesh’s foreign policy direction

Sergio Gor, the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, is set to arrive in Dhaka on 30 July to have a clear understanding of Bangladesh's foreign policy priorities and direction.

Diplomats consider this visit significant in the context of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's Beijing visit, Bangladesh's recent engagements with various countries, and recent regional diplomatic activities.

On the first day of the three-day visit, Sergio Gor will meet with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman.

During his visit, he may also exchange views with political party leaders, professionals, and representatives of civil society.

On the final day, he is scheduled to visit the Rohingya refugee situation in Cox's Bazar firsthand. A high-level government official has confirmed this information.

According to diplomatic sources, the current priorities of Bangladesh's foreign policy, regional strategic positioning, and the future of Dhaka-Washington relations will be the focus of discussions during Sergio Gor's visit.

Particularly after the Prime Minister's visit to China in June, the Foreign Minister's visit to Moscow in the same month, and the visit of Turkey's Foreign Minister to Dhaka, there is growing international interest in Bangladesh's strategic position, and Washington's assessment may be reflected in this visit.

Since the BNP government took office in February, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Paul Kapoor, visited Bangladesh in March, and in May, Brendan Lynch, Assistant Trade Representative for South and Central Asia, also visited.

When asked, Muhammad Sufiur Rahman, former permanent representative of Bangladesh at the UN mission in Geneva and Senior Research Fellow at North South University's South Asia Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG), told Prothom Alo that since the new government took office, Sergio Gor is likely to try to get a clear understanding of Bangladesh's engagements with various countries and future foreign policy plans during his visit to Dhaka.

Based on this understanding, the US foreign policy direction regarding Bangladesh might be redefined during President Trump's tenure over the next two years. In such a context, Sergio Gor’s visit to Dhaka holds special significance.

During the current government's tenure, Bangladesh's engagements with countries and coalitions such as China, Russia, Turkey, and the European union have become visible. After the new government took office, there were initial indications of Bangladesh advancing positively with India. However, discomfort remains in the relationship between the two countries.

International relations analysts believe Sergio Gor, through this visit, will want to understand the overall direction of Bangladesh's future diplomacy in bilateral and international relations.

From the US perspective, there may be special emphasis on three issues:

Firstly, the discomfort of the US regarding China is no secret. Thus, he will try to understand how Bangladesh’s relations with China will evolve in the short and long term.

Secondly, the effectiveness of the agreement on reciprocal trade or ART with Bangladesh is important. This agreement stipulates that Bangladesh cannot enter into free trade or preferential economic agreements with countries not fully market-based. If it does, the US can cancel the agreement and reinstate previous mutual tariff rates. Hence, this visit holds economic, political, and strategic significance when considering bilateral relations.

Thirdly, questions may be raised about Bangladesh’s plans for its short and long-term relationship with India. Since government-level communication with India has decreased, the U. S. might want to understand which direction the future of the two neighbours’ relationship is heading through this visit.

Security analyst and President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), Major General (Retd.) ANM Muniruzzaman, told Prothom Alo that Sergio Gor's first visit to Bangladesh as the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia is significant.

Especially considering the Prime Minister's recent China visit and Bangladesh's links with various countries, he will seek to understand the new government’s foreign policy direction in Bangladesh.

Based on understanding Bangladesh's future plans on the international stage, he has the opportunity to play a role in the scope of relations between the two countries as a special envoy.