IILD survey finds BNP and Jamaat locked in tight election race

In the upcoming 13th national parliamentary election, the alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) may secure 44.1 per cent of the vote, while an electoral alliance of 11 political parties led by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami could receive 43.9 per cent.

These findings emerge from a public opinion survey conducted by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), with technical support from Projection BD and Jagaran Foundation.

The survey results were presented at a hotel at Purana Paltan in the capital on Monday.

According to the findings, 1.7 per cent of voters expressed support for the Jatiya Party (JaPa), while 6.5 per cent said they had not yet decided whom they would vote for.

Speakers at the event said the survey was conducted among 63,115 voters nationwide. Of them, 36,634 were men, accounting for 57.59 per cent of respondents, while 26,981 were women, representing 42.41 per cent. In terms of age distribution, 27.48 per cent of respondents, 17,481 voters, were between 18 and 29 years old.

The survey findings were presented by IILD executive director Shafiul Alam, who said the survey was conducted over a period of 16 days, from 21 January to 5 February.

The survey commenced after candidate lists had been finalised and political parties’ electoral alliances confirmed.

Shafiul Alam said the survey covered all 300 parliamentary constituencies across the country. In each constituency, five to six unions and holdings were selected through a lottery-based sampling method.

According to the survey, 92 per cent of respondents said they intend to cast their vote. Meanwhile, 4.4 per cent said they would not vote, and 2.5 per cent said they remain undecided.

While the BNP-led alliance is clearly ahead in terms of overall vote share, the Jamaat-led electoral alliance is leading in constituencies where victory appears assured.

The survey suggests that the Jamaat-led alliance could secure a definite victory in 105 constituencies, whereas the BNP-led alliance could be assured of victory in 101 seats.

The findings also indicate a closely fought contest in 75 constituencies between candidates of the two alliances. In addition, candidates from other parties may win in 19 constituencies.

Regarding the referendum, 74.9 per cent of respondents said they are aware of it, while 25.2 per cent said they are not.

Among those surveyed, 89.6 per cent said they intended to vote “Yes” in the referendum, while 9.1 per cent said they would vote “No”.