Bangladesh-India relations: Temporary tensions vs long-term interests

The government changes, political relationships rise and fall, and the language of diplomacy evolves over time; however, neighbours do not change. From this enduring reality comes a fundamental lesson in foreign policy understanding: the success of relationships with neighbours relies not only on crisis management but also on the ability to maintain long-term interests even amidst crises.

Bangladesh-India relations are once again at the centre of heated discussions. The strong reactions from Dhaka to Sheikh Hasina’s statements at a press conference in New Delhi, the subsequent diplomatic exchanges, and speculation over high-level visits collectively suggest that the two countries' relations have entered a new phase of discomfort. Such situations, however, are not new and have occurred in the past. Yet, a crucial point is often overlooked amid temporary tensions—above political disputes and diplomatic standoffs, the long-term interests and mutual interdependencies of the two countries remain.

Therefore, the most critical question today is not how the immediate tension will subside, but rather how Bangladesh’s relationship with India should be managed to ensure the best protection of our long-term national interests. The answer requires a strategic foreign policy that rises above temporary tensions to prioritise national interests over the long term, considers real differences between the two countries without accepting them as it will not accept this as the limit of the relationship; instead, it will manage both differences and cooperation in light of broader national interests.

The importance of Bangladesh-India relations does not hinge on any temporary political event. Its foundation lies in the long-term realities of the two countries’ geographical location, economic ties, and security interests. With over 4,000 kilometers of land border, 54 shared rivers, and growing trade and communication ties, an interdependence has formed between the two countries that political tensions cannot ignore. Therefore, Bangladesh-India relations are not centered around a single issue but rather a web of interconnected interests such as water, trade, energy, border management, communication, and regional security.

For this reason, even as political tensions increase, the real issues remain. The Ganges water-sharing agreement will expire in 2026. The Teesta water-sharing agreement remains unresolved since 2011. Each dry season, the farmers and the general population in the northern region face the impacts of this deadlock.

Unwanted border deaths are a concern, as is the need for continuous cross-border river management and border cooperation as matters of joint interest for both countries. These realities show that despite temporary political conflicts, the fundamental aspects of the relationship between the two countries remain and addressing them requires continuous dialogue and cooperation.

Economic relations are simultaneously a source of opportunity and challenge. India is one of Bangladesh’s major trading partners. Bangladesh imports goods worth 11 to 12 billion USD annually from India, while its exports to India have remained limited to only 1. 8 to 2 billion USD, despite duty-free access to many Indian products. This disparity has turned the long-standing trade deficit, non-tariff barriers, and market access limitations into significant policy challenges for Bangladesh. On the other hand, initiatives like the Feni Bridge, rail and waterway connectivity, power and energy cooperation, and various regional communication projects show that the economies of the two countries are becoming increasingly intertwined.

Bangladesh and India are sovereign and equal states. However, in terms of population, economic size, military capability, and regional influence, India is a larger power. Ignoring this asymmetry is pointless; however, acknowledging it does not mean that all of Bangladesh’s decisions will be trapped in a weak-strong dynamic. The real diplomatic challenge is to manage this asymmetry with wisdom and strategy, safeguard one’s interests, and seek ways to benefit from mutual interdependence.

Asymmetry does not equate to helplessness. The success of a smaller state depends on its economic capability, strategic position, strong institutions, and effective diplomacy. Bangladesh also has significant strategic assets—its geographical position, Bay of Bengal access, and the importance of connectivity with India’s northeastern region.

However, to translate these strategic advantages into effective bargaining power, Bangladesh must further enhance its own economic and institutional capabilities. Strategic importance does not automatically turn into bargaining power; it requires economic capability, strong institutions, and consistent diplomatic skills. From this reality emerges a clear policy conclusion: Bangladesh’s relationship with India should be based on strategic foreign policy, not emotions or immediate reactions. This foreign policy should be based on at least three fundamental principles.

Every policy decision regarding India should be preceded by a fundamental question—does it strengthen Bangladesh''s security, economic prosperity, and long-term development? If the answer is positive, such cooperation should not cease due to temporary political tensions. Issues like water, trade, energy, communication, and border management are matters of the state’s long-term interests, not partisan politics. If these policies break with government changes or political fluctuations, Bangladesh will suffer the most.

Mature states manage neighborly relations by keeping them outside daily political debates and as part of long-term national strategies. Therefore, institutional arrangements like the Joint River Commission, Trade Dialogue, or border-related structures need to be maintained regularly and effectively, so that the foundation of cooperation remains intact even if the political climate changes.

The goodwill of the top leadership of the two countries has opened paths for significant progress in the past—this is true. However, any sustainable bilateral relationship cannot rely on personal understanding. Political leadership changes; the state''s interests remain unchanged. Therefore, Bangladesh-India relations must be built on a framework that ensures regular ministerial dialogues, effective technical committees, permanent discussions on water and trade issues, communications between businesspeople-researchers-universities, and continued cooperation in regional platforms like BIMSTEC. Strong institutions protect relationships from the impact of political changes.

No matter how strong an institution is, the foundation of sustainable partnership ultimately lies in mutual respect and trust. India needs to recognize that a small neighboring state’s trust cannot be earned solely through economic cooperation; it must also consistently display sensitivity towards its legitimate concerns, sovereign decisions, and national interests. The responsibility of a larger state is not just to exhibit power but also to build trust.

A fundamental lesson of mature diplomacy is—one disagreement should not hold the entire relationship hostage. Bangladesh will take a firm, clear, and consistent stance on issues related to national interests, such as border killings, cross-border river water sharing, electricity prices, trade disparities, or any other matters. At the same time, it will continue working in areas like trade, energy, communication, investment, technology, education, and regional cooperation, where the interests of both countries align.

In the same way, India should not allow political disagreements to become obstacles in the path of mutually beneficial cooperation. The success of diplomacy does not lie in resolving all disputes; it lies in the ability to keep areas of cooperation active despite the presence of disputes. The goal of neighborly relations is not perfect consensus, but stable coexistence.
The importance of these three principles is greater today than ever before.

After the political changes in 2024, Bangladesh has an opportunity to reassess its India policy. This opportunity has emerged at a time when the strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal, India-China competition, shifting Indo-Pacific dynamics, and increasing fragmentation in the global economy pose new risks and opportunities for Bangladesh. As the global economy becomes more fragmented and geopolitical uncertainty grows, so does the importance of regional cooperation, connectivity, and mutual interdependence.

Bangladesh can mitigate the risks of this changing reality and seize new opportunities not by isolation, but by enhancing trade, communication, energy, investment, and supply system cooperation with neighboring and regional countries. Therefore, Bangladesh-India relations should not be viewed solely as a bilateral relationship but also in the context of broader regional cooperation and global realignment.

In this context, it is vital for Bangladesh to maintain a close and effective relationship with India, while also diversifying its relationships with partners like China, Japan, the United States, the European Union, and others. However, diversifying partnerships does not mean moving away from any single country; instead, it means broadening one’s strategic space and expanding the range of alternatives.

Simultaneously, it is essential to make regional initiatives like BIMSTEC more effective in deepening trade, communication, energy, and economic cooperation between South and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh needs to utilize its geographical location not only as a strategic advantage but also as an economic and diplomatic asset. This is because the more partners there are, the deeper the connections, and the wider the alternatives, the greater Bangladesh’s freedom to make decisions and its bargaining power.

This definitely does not mean compromising on questions of Bangladesh’s sovereignty or national interests. Instead, a confident state is characterized by its firmness in defending its interests while not allowing temporary disputes to hinder long-term cooperation. Differences of opinion among neighboring states are not unusual; what is unusual is turning those differences into the controlling force of the entire relationship. The success of mature diplomacy does not lie in building a dispute-free relationship, but rather in maintaining functional areas of cooperation even amidst disagreements.

The current tension will also eventually become part of history. However, the water of the Ganges and Teesta, 54 shared rivers, border management, trade, energy cooperation, regional connectivity, and the increasing strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal will remain. Therefore, Bangladesh’s policy towards India should be guided by long-term state vision, strategic realism, and clear national interest, not temporary political emotions or populism.

Ultimately, the success of this policy cannot be assessed by the language of joint statements or the intensity of diplomatic tensions. The true benchmark is whether this relationship makes Bangladesh more secure, prosperous, and capable of facing future challenges. If the answer is positive, then temporary tensions cannot overshadow greater national interests.

There is no option to change the neighbor; but by enhancing its capabilities, Bangladesh can decide how to manage its relationship with that neighbor. Hence, foreign policy must be based on pragmatism and foresight, not emotions; and the objective of diplomacy must be to advance national interests with patience, skill, and confidence, not to create a clamor. The future of Bangladesh-India relations will ultimately be determined not by temporary tensions, but by the strength of a long-term state vision.

#Golam Rasul is Professor, Department of Economics, International University of Business, Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka.

Email: golam.grasul@gmail.com

*The opinions expressed are the author's own.