ICG report: Bangladesh at a critical juncture, political compromise required

Bangladesh is at a critical juncture. The once vibrant, if imperfect democracy will soon hold a third election without a credible alternative to the incumbent government. Sheikh Hasina’s determination to hold the election on her terms will increase the risk of violence, both before and after the polls.

Given the level of domestic opposition it is facing, alongside economic and geopolitical headwinds, the AL has reasons to seek a compromise.

The two parties (Bangladesh Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party) should engage in dialogue to chart a way out of the stalemate. Negotiations to rebuild relations between the main political forces and put Bangladesh back on to the path of democracy, peace and stability will require concessions from both sides. The country’s foreign partners, particularly the US and India, should actively encourage them in that direction.

These have been said in a latest report of International Crisis Group (ICG) on the forthcoming 12th parliamentary election of Bangladesh.

ICG published the 47-page report titled ‘Beyond the Election: Overcoming Bangladesh’s Political Deadlock’ on Thursday, highlighting the overall political situation in the country regarding the election slated for 7 January.

The study highlighted the situation that led to antagonism between the Awami League and BNP and the pathway for a reconciliation.

Speaking about key opposition BNP’s decision to boycott the 7 January election, it said, the tension increased due to the government’s repression and arresting of opposition leaders amid largely demonstrations against the government’s authoritarian attitude and economic mismanagement. This has led the opposition to boycott the election.

The ICG report said, “Since coming to office in 2009, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has worked ruthlessly to maintain her party’s grip on power, overseeing flawed elections in 2014 and 2018. But an economic crisis, shifting foreign relations and a reinvigorated opposition have made it harder for the Awami League to hold another one-sided poll.”

The Brussels-based organisation further stated, “The opposition’s boycott means that voter turnout is likely to be low. With few credible alternatives at the ballot box, discontented Bangladeshis are taking to the streets, and the risk of political violence remains high. Disturbances could also erupt between competing factions within the Awami League.”

In this context, the International Crisis Group has advised both the parties to reconsider their approach to avoid any further escalation. “While it is now too late to delay the January election, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party should work after the vote to de-escalate the country’s political tensions, including through concessions by both sides. Foreign partners should encourage them toward this goal.”

Crisis Group's Asia Director, Pierre Prakash said, “The 7 January election will not resolve Bangladesh’s political crisis. Although it’s too late to postpone the vote, a flawed election provides only more reason to redouble efforts to get the ruling Awami League and its opponents talking again after the poll.”

He further stated, “Since the 2008 election that brought the Awami League to power, the country has not held a credible national election. And while Bangladesh has made significant progress in some areas over the past 15 years, most notably on the economic front and in reducing poverty, it has experienced continued political violence and repression of civil liberties.

“A new political settlement between the two major parties would help to put Bangladesh back on to the path of democracy, peace and stability. It could avert further political violence – in the past few months alone, dozens of people have been killed. It would also help to balance Bangladesh’s international relations and improve its economic prospects,” he added.