Most populous city: How Dhaka can overcome crisis as it rises to top globally

Over the past 25 years, Dhaka has climbed seven positions to become the world’s second most populous city. Only Jakarta is ahead. And in another 25 years, that city too is projected to fall behind Dhaka. This indication has been given in the United Nations Economic and Social Council’s report “World Urbanization Prospects 2025.”

Experts believe that if this projection comes true, it will pose a major challenge for Bangladesh’s capital. They say that to avoid this crisis, preparations must begin now.

According to World Urbanisation Prospects 2025, Jakarta, Indonesia, will be the world’s most populous city in 2025. Dhaka ranks right after it. Both Jakarta and Dhaka have surpassed Tokyo. After Tokyo in third place come New Delhi of India and Shanghai of China.

The report was prepared by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and was published on 18 November. It states that Jakarta had a population of 41.9 million (as of 1 July 2025). In 2000, its population was 25.6 million.

However, the report also predicts that by 2050, Jakarta will drop back to second place. At that time, its population will be 51.8 million. Dhaka will overtake it and rise to the top position.

Meanwhile, in 2000, Tokyo had a population of 30.3 million and ranked number one among the world’s most populous cities. After 25 years, its population has reached 33.4 million, placing it third globally.

By 2050, Tokyo will rank 7th. Its population will decrease to 30.7 million.

Dhaka’s population

According to World Urbanisation Prospects 2025, the capital of Bangladesh now has roughly 36.6 million residents.

In 2000, Dhaka ranked 9th among the world’s most populous cities with 17.4 million people. Over the past 25 years, Dhaka has risen to the second position. During this period, its annual population growth rate has been 2.96 per cent.

This upward trend is likely to continue. The report states that by 2050, Dhaka will reach the top of the global list, becoming the world’s most populous city with a population of approximately 52.1 million.

According to the 2025 list, after Jakarta, Dhaka, and Tokyo, New Delhi is next with a population of 30.2 million. Shanghai, ranking fifth, has 29.6 million residents.

The report predicts that by 2050, Shanghai will surpass New Delhi to become the third most populous city.

In this year’s ranking, Guangzhou in China sits at number 6 with a population of 27.6 million. By 2050, Guangzhou may fall to 8th place with a population of 29.2 million.

Cairo of Egypt and Manila of the Philippines are currently in the 7th and 8th positions. Cairo’s population is now 25.6 million, and Manila’s is 24.7 million. By 2050, Cairo is expected to be in 6th place and Manila in 9th.

Kolkata, India, and Seoul, South Korea, are in the 9th and 10th spots this year, each with 22.5 million people. By 2050, Kolkata will move down to 10th with 23.8 million, while Seoul will fall to 12th with 21.2 million.

The report highlighted the dramatic increase in the number of people living in cities worldwide, calling it a “new trend in human settlement.”

Dhaka’s population is growing rapidly. If this population cannot be turned into productive human resources, a severe crisis is inevitable, experts warn.

Sustainable and integrated planning is required, says Uswatun Mahera, Assistant Professor in the Department of Local Government and Urban Development at Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University.

Uswatun Mahera told Prothom Alo, “Every year, about 500,000 people come to Dhaka. Arranging housing for them has become a major challenge. The increasing population is polluting Dhaka’s air and water. Services like transport and waste management are becoming ineffective. Unplanned expansion is obstructing the ability to meet citizens’ basic needs.”

“A sustainable and coordinated plan is essential to solve this. The government must take the lead,” said the urban planner.

The number of people migrating to Dhaka from villages and towns is increasing every day. Dhaka University’s former Chair of the Department of Population Sciences, Mohammad Mainul Islam, explained several reasons behind this trend.

He told Prothom Alo, “The rate of migration from rural areas to Dhaka is more than twice our population growth rate. Job opportunities in rural areas are very limited, so many come to Dhaka in search of work. People are also moving due to climate change–related environmental risks. As agricultural land shrinks, many landless people move to Dhaka. Besides, many come for education, healthcare, and other urban facilities.”

Professor Mainul Islam expressed concern that Dhaka is already overcrowded, and the situation will worsen in the future.

Recommending the formulation of a new urban policy, he said, “All institutions related to public services need to be strengthened. At the same time, commercial activities must be relocated outside Dhaka.”