Jamaat’s major surge, highest-ever vote haul

Long known in national politics as a coalition-dependent party, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has demonstrated its own strength in the 13th Jatiya Sangsad (national parliamentary) elections.

In the election, where voting was held in 299 of the 300 constituencies, official results show the party won 68 seats independently, the highest in its political history. Including coalition partners, the total rises to 77 seats. Although short of forming a government, Jamaat is set to sit in the opposition benches.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured 209 seats independently and 212 with allies. However, Jamaat’s 68 single-handed victories carry significant political weight. In 1996, when it contested independently, it had won only three seats.

Previously, Jamaat won 18 seats in 1991, 17 in 2001 and two in 2008. Compared with those results, this year marks a historic turning point for the party.

After 17 years, Jamaat formed an alliance under its own leadership and directly contested against the BNP in the 13th national parliamentary elections. Although it did not secure enough seats to form a government, analysts view the coalition’s 77-seat tally as a major rise.

In the past, Jamaat had never won a seat in the capital. This time, however, it secured six of the 15 seats in Dhaka metropolitan area including Dhaka-4, Dhaka-5, Dhaka-12, Dhaka-14, Dhaka-15 and Dhaka-16. In addition, alliance candidate and NCP convener Nahid Islam won in Dhaka-11.

Apart from that, there was close contests in five other Dhaka constituencies. Jamaat or their allies lost in Dhaka-7, Dhaka-8, Dhaka-10, Dhaka-13 and Dhaka-17 constituencies by narrow margins.

In Dhaka-10, the margin was just 3,300 votes, while in Dhaka-7 it was 6,183 votes. In many other constituencies across the country, Jamaat secured a significant number of votes despite overall defeat.

A geographical analysis of the election results shows that Jamaat’s strongest gains came particularly in the Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions to the north along with Khulna division to the south-west. It won 25 of 36 seats in Khulna, 16 of 33 in Rangpur and 11 of 39 in Rajshahi.

Victories in all constituencies of Satkhira, Meherpur, Chuadanga, Nilphamari and Chapainawabganj demonstrate the depth of its regional influence. All seats in Rangpur and Kurigram were won by the alliance, including two by ally NCP.

However, the BNP remained ahead in Dhaka and Chattogram divisions. Jamaat won eight of 70 seats in Dhaka division and three of 58 in Chattogram division on their own. In Sylhet division, only one of the 19 seats was secured by alliance partner Khelafat Majlis.

There is discussion that a section of the youth and the women voters shifted towards Jamaat in this election. Some observers link this to the success of Islami Chhatra Shibir in student union elections at various universities.

The electoral alliance with the NCP, a party led by young figures associated with the 2024 mass uprising, also created a new political equation.

Election analyst Professor AKM Waresul Karim of North South University came up with several points in his observation. He told Prothom Alo that Jamaat has attempted to reposition itself from a conservative right-wing identity to a centre-right party, and has been largely successful.

Previously, the BNP was regarded as the principal claimant of nationalist and Islamist votes, with Jamaat seen as its associate. This time, Jamaat appears to have secured a share of that vote bank. The party also tried to present itself as a force “not power-seeking but in favour of change”, which is believed to have resonated with young voters, added the professor.

However, there are alternative interpretations of Jamaat’s rise. Speaking to journalists at his residence in Thakurgaon on Friday, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said the country had experienced 15 years of fascist rule.

“Whenever democracy is suppressed and people’s voices are stifled, extremist forces begin to emerge, that is what has happened here,” said Mirza Fakhrul. According to him, Jamaat’s rise occurred because of the Awami League’s repressive governance, which restricted opposition activities and prevented fair elections.