A significant portion of the public believes that Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has the highest likelihood of becoming the next prime minister following the upcoming national parliamentary election. Nearly one-quarter of respondents also view Shafiqur Rahman, amir of Jamaat-e-Islami, as a potential future prime minister.
These findings emerged from a survey conducted at the initiative of Prothom Alo. The survey was carried out by the private research organisation, Keymakers Consulting Limited, under the title “National opinion poll on key socio-political issues, 2025.”
One of the survey questions asked: Among various leaders in Bangladesh, who do you believe has the highest chance of becoming prime minister after the next national election?
In response, the largest share, 47.5 per cent, expressed the opinion that BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman has the strongest prospects.
Tarique Rahman has never contested a parliamentary election. Since 2008 he has been living in exile in the United Kingdom. However, due to Khaleda Zia’s imprisonment and prolonged illness, he has been managing the party.
BNP leaders have also stated that if the party wins the next election, Tarique Rahman will be appointed the next prime minister.
Regarding former prime minister Khaleda Zia, around 19 per cent of respondents believe she has a chance of becoming prime minister again.
She has been seriously ill for an extended period and is currently hospitalised in critical condition. Khaleda Zia previously served as prime minister three times and as leader of the opposition twice.
Combining the support for Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman, the total exceeds 66 per cent. Meanwhile, 25.4 per cent of respondents believe that Jamaat-e-Islami amir Shafiqur Rahman could become prime minister. He has participated in previous national parliamentary elections but has never been elected.
Sheikh Hasina, who was removed from office by the July mass uprising after serving consecutively for 15 and a half years and becoming prime minister five times, left for India following her ouster on 5 August last year.
Many political analysts believe that considering her age, the death sentence handed down by the International Crimes Tribunal and other factors, her return to politics is unlikely.
Nevertheless, just over 7 per cent of respondents said she could still become prime minister after the next election. (It should be noted that the survey data were collected before Sheikh Hasina was convicted for crimes against humanity in connection with the killings during the July uprising.)
Additionally, 0.6 per cent of respondents believe that Nahid Islam, convener of the National Citizens Party (NCP), has a chance of becoming prime minister, while 0.2 per cent believe the same about Jatiya Party (JAPA) chairman GM Quader.
The survey collected opinions from 1,342 adults (aged 18–55) across five urban areas and five rural or semi-urban areas.
Of them, 674 were men and 668 were women. Respondents came from various income levels, classes and professions. Data were collected from 21 to 28 October.
The survey organisation stated that this was an opinion poll. It is nationally representative but does not represent any specific electoral constituency.
The sample reflects individuals who read online or print newspapers and who are likely to vote in the next election. The confidence level of the results is 99 per cent.
Who becoming prime minister would be best for the country?
Another question asked in the survey was: Among different leaders in Bangladesh, who would be best for the country if they became Prime Minister after the upcoming national election?
In response, around 37 per cent said the country would benefit most if Tarique Rahman became prime minister. Nearly 32 per cent expressed support for Jamaat-e-Islami amir Shafiqur Rahman.
Approximately 21 per cent of respondents believe that Khaleda Zia becoming the next prime minister would be best for the country. In the case of Sheikh Hasina, 8.6 per cent expressed such support.
Meanwhile, 0.7 per cent think that the country would be better off if Nahid Islam became prime minister.