No sheaf of paddy, no boat, yet a neck and neck contest

If you head north-east from Kuakata, the political landscape will begin to change. The salty sea breeze fades, giving way to riverside settlements, markets, canals and fields of crops.

Getting down at Shakharia in Amtali upazila of Barguna, travelling through Amkhola Bazar, then along the riverbank past Suhari Bazar, crossing the river by trawler, we finally reached Galachipa. Just as we arrived, it was immediately clear that the electoral picture here is different.

Patuakhali–3, comprising Galachipa and Dashmina upazilas, has long been known as an Awami League (whose activities are currently banned) stronghold.

From the June 1996 national election through to 2024, candidates carrying the boat symbol won every single election here. This time, however, the Awami League is not contesting. As a result, the constituency’s electoral landscape has changed completely.

After crossing the Galachipa River from Haridebpur, banners of four candidates bearing four different symbols came into view.

BNP’s consensus-backed candidate, Nurul Haque Nur, president of Gono Odhikar Parishad and former DUCSU vice-president is contesting with the truck symbol while, BNP rebel candidate Hasan Mamun is running with the horse symbol.  

Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidate, Professor Md Shah Alam is contesting with the weighing scale symbol, and Islami Andolan’s candidate, Hafez Maulana Mufti Abu Bakar Siddique is in the race with the hand fan symbol.

Hasan Mamun was an executive member of BNP’s central committee. He was expelled from the party for defying its decision and contesting against the consensus candidate Nurul Haque Nur.

This election sees neither the boat nor BNP’s sheaf of paddy symbol on the ballot. This vacuum has created fresh heat in the Galachipa-Dashmina electoral field, leaving even the BNP supporters divided.

Despite the absence of the Awami League, the constituency remains tense due to the speeches and activities of Nurul Haque Nur, Hasan Mamun and their supporters.

Most recently, clashes broke out between supporters of the two candidates in front of Chatra Government Primary School in Dakua Union of Galachipa around 11:00 pm this Saturday. This left at least 15 people from both sides injured.

The situation has escalated to such a level that the administration has imposed restrictions on several campaign programmes of Nurul Haque Nur and Hasan Mamun to avoid potential violence.

The district returning officer issued related directives on Saturday, and several programmes announced by the two candidates on the same day at the same locations have also been cancelled.

To understand how candidates are calculating votes in this traditionally Awami League-influenced area, at least 30 people across villages, neighbourhoods and remote areas of the constituency were spoken to.

Some said that both the truck and horse candidates are creating trouble and trying to woo Awami League supporters behind the scenes. Others said they would not vote for anyone who had worked against the Awami League.

Due to these dynamics, some believe the Jamaat candidate could perform well. However, most people were reluctant to disclose which symbol they would vote for.

The picture is also broadly similar in the other three constituencies of Patuakhali. Locals say Awami League supporters’ votes will determine victory or defeat.

For this reason, the number of risky polling centres in the area is also high. According to police headquarters data, of the 513 polling centres in Patuakhali district, as many as 453 are considered risky.

The familiar electoral equation in Patuakhali–3 (Galachipa–Dashmina) has changed this time. This correspondent visited Galachipa for another election before. Previously, vote calculations revolved around Awami League candidates, rebels and those denied nominations.

This election has broken that pattern. With the boat absent, many voters are undecided. The entire contest now hinges on who can attract these floating votes.

A long-time observer of local politics said that Awami League factions hostile to either Nur or Mamun are being wooed to back one candidate over the other as a tactic to weaken rivals and draw votes.

For example, two influential figures in local Awami League politics are former Chhatra League leader Muhammad Shaheen Shah and Wana Marjia Nitu. Nitu’s father was once the mayor of Galachipa municipality. The two contested the 2024 upazila parishad election, which Nitu had won.

Previously, Shaheen Shah had also been the upazila chairman. During the Awami League’s time in power, Shaheen’s followers once attacked Nur at Ulania port, added the observer.

There is widespread discussion in the area that although these two Awami League factions are not openly campaigning for anyone, they are quietly extending support through third-tier leaders.

Campaign narratives also focus on who was more opposed to the Awami League in the past. Speculation over which former MPs and senior leaders support whom is rife across the constituency.

Patuakhali–3 has 124 polling centres and a total of 373,403 voters with 187,174 men and 186,226 women.

On the ground, discussions mostly revolve around the truck and horse symbols. In Ward no. 2 of South Kailkapur Union, a 50-year-old man who has voted for the boat all his life paused when asked whom he would vote for this time. “The voting situation is a mess now. You can’t tell where to put your vote,” he said.

The man added that Nur is believed to have strong local support, but a large section still remains undecided. “Many didn’t take it well that Nur chased Sheikh Hasina away,” he said.

This comment reflects the current reality. While, Nur is able to attract a section of the voters, memories of past politics brings him face to face with challenges before voters of another section.

Commenting from the side, another local resident summed it up succinctly, “In this area, Awami League votes are decisive. Whichever way those votes go, the result will follow.”

Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islami Andolan, led by the Charmonai Pir, have drawn particular attention in this constituency. Early on, there were talks of seat-sharing between the two, with this seat being a preference for the Charmonai group.

Jamaat candidate Professor Shah Alam had significantly limited his campaign during that period. After talks failed, he has intensified campaigning, though their presence remains relatively low.

At a shop in Kailkapur, locals said that Jamaat and the Islami Andolan would have fared better together. Seventy-something local resident Fazlu Fakir remarked, “The weighing scales and hand fan campaigns are running quietly. With Nur and Mamun pushing each other so hard, others might slip through. You never know what people will do.”

Shamim Dafadar, a Galachipa upazila Sramik Dal member, earns his living by riding a motorbike and has long been associated with Hasan Mamun. At a tea stall in Ward no. 1 of Galachipa municipality, he said, “We will vote for whoever Tarique Rahman has chosen. We don’t go against party decisions.”

He added, however, “This is an Awami League-favouring area. Vote calculations are tough this time.”

Near government-owned khas land in Ward no. 1, local residents speaking were among themselves. They said 230 families live on that land under government allocation.

Nur has strong support in the area, but one person, speaking anonymously, claimed, “I’ve been threatened to vote for the truck. Otherwise, I won’t be allowed to go to the polling centre.”

Due to threats and counter-threats from the two candidates, some voters are considering staying away from polling centres altogether, further complicating the situation.

Amid all this, a whole different scene was found in Galachipa. A group of young people are running an awareness campaign on the referendum under the banner “Oikkoboddho Tarunno (Galachipa)”. They distribute leaflets in remote areas and screen documentaries at local bazars in the evenings.

One of the organisers of this initiative, Md Shahed Hossain, said many marginalised people lack understanding of the referendum. “Misinformation is being spread—that voting ‘Yes’ will remove the word ‘Bismillah’ from the constitution or erase Liberation War history. When we clarify these issues, people say they support reforms,” he said.

This Barishal University student added that a former UP member in Adani Bazar told them that while he understood voting ‘Yes’ would be good, he could not speak publicly due to party directives.

The dynamics are almost the same in Patuakhali’s other three constituencies as well. Historically, Patuakhali–1 (Mirzaganj, Dumki and Patuakhali Sadar) has mostly been won by the Awami League and its allies. From the June 1996 election to 2024, only once, in 2001, did Altaf Hossain Chowdhury of the BNP win there.

This time, BNP’s candidate is again Altaf Hossain Chowdhury, facing Dr Abdul Wahab of the AB Party (eagle symbol) and Islami Andolan’s Md Firoz Alam (hand fan symbol).

A motorbike rider from Patuakhali Sadar, Md Ashraf said Altaf Hossain Chowdhury is in a good position, while Abdul Wahab is a good man but has been less visible in the locality.

A slightly different picture was noticed in Patuakhali–2 (Bauphal), where Jamaat’s weighing scales symbol has a stronger presence. Here, BNP’s Md Shahidul Alam Talukdar faces Jamaat’s Md Shafiqul Islam Masud. Also in this constituency, the boat won nearly every election since 1996 to 2024, except for in 2001.

In Patuakhali–4 (Kalapara-Rangabali), locals say BNP’s ABM Mosharraf Hossain faces strong competition from Islami Andolan candidate and former upazila chairman Mostafizur Rahman. Meanwhile, Jahir Uddin Ahmed of the 11-party alliance is a former Rangabali upazila chairman.

As in other seats, boat candidates won every election in this seat since 1996 to 2024. So, Awami League supporters’ votes are expected to be decisive here as well.

Ultimately, across all four constituencies in Patuakhali, the biggest calculation revolves around Awami League supporters’ votes. Which way will the supporters of this party go? In search of that answer, people in riverine and char villages are weighing their choices of votes, politics and the future.