Awami League shows no sign of remorse, banks on conspiracy theory

The fall of the Awami League regime and the consequences are different this time. The 75-year-old party that led the liberation war has earned the epithet of fascism.

The Awami League leadership is facing trial for committing mass killing in the student movement. The question is how the party assesses the situation and the reason for the consequences its leaders face.

Three months have passed since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government. But no sign of any change appears in the thought process and demeanors of the leaders and activists of Awami League, let alone any sign of showing any remorse whatsoever.

They don’t even seem to bother the trust issue its leadership faces and no alternative thinking seems evident. The Awami League still sees the mass-uprising and subsequent toppling of the government as a conspiracy.

In the meantime, some of its leaders, who fled abroad have given audio or video statements on social media, while some issued direct statements. The pith of their statements is that the Awami League government has been overthrown by a local and international conspiracy.

Some phone conversations of Sheikh Hasina with grassroot leaders have been leaked on social media. If these conversations are genuine, it can be deduced that her tone remains the same with no slight change. Those phone conversations only show anger and wrath.

Other than those leaked conversations, Sheikh Hasina spoke with some other party leaders and activists. We contacted two such grassroots leaders. They said Sheikh Hasina asked them to keep their morale strong and her manner of speaking remains as was in the past.

However, it goes without saying that the party is battered. There has also been a precedent of the party’s top leadership fleeing abroad this time. 

Sheikh Hasina fled to India in the student-led uprising on 5 August, ending her 15-and-a-half-year rule. Before leaving the country, she did not even issue any instructions to the leaders and activists of the Awami League. The news of the fall of the government caught them shocked and disoriented.

After the government was deposed, the leaders of Awami League and its associate organisations scrambled to save their lives. Many of the grassroots expressed their anger at the party’s top leadership for not giving any instructions, as per media reports.

A major portion of the party’s ministers, lawmakers or top leaders fled to India and other countries. Some of them were also arrested while fleeing. Most of the leaders and activists of the grassroots have gone into hiding inside the country. Some former ministers, lawmakers and party leaders were arrested on charge of mass murder, killing and other charges.

A communication network has apparently been set up among the leaders of the party who are on the run inside the country and who fled abroad in the last one month. Their statements are now being published on Awami League’s verified Facebook page and X handle. Their efforts to reorganise are visible by these incidents.

Several Awami League leaders who fled the country in mid and late August said that the reorganisation efforts have mainly been undertaken by former ministers and party leaders who fled the country.

They are not yet considering any alternative leader of Sheikh Hasina. As a result, many statements are being issued in the name of party president Sheikh Hasina.

However, none have any contact with AL general secretary Obaidul Quader. The party also wants to avoid him at the moment. As a result, the person who used to create controversy at daily press conferences before the fall of the Awami League government is not being mentioned in any statement.

Some of them, however, question the effectiveness of the efforts to reorganise by the absentee leaders. Meanwhile they are also doubtful about the effectiveness of alternative leadership to overcome the trust issue within the country. However, there is still no indication of alternative thinking within the party.

For the first time since the downfall of the government, Awami League announced to hold protest rallies in Dhaka’s Zero Point and elsewhere in the country marking Shaheed Noor Hossain Day on 10 November. In the announcements made on social media, the party called for removal of “undemocratic force” and “reestablishment of democratic state”.

The programme could not succeed due to strong opposition from anti-Awami League parties, Students against Discrimination and the government.

Conversations with Awami League leaders of different rungs indicated that the party wanted to fathom how the interim government, political parties and mass people react about their programme.

One of the major objectives of the programme was to remain in focus in politics and media. There are plans to throw more programmes in future to get the party out of limbo and reorganise it. And, the party wants to do it by shunning the responsibility of the July-August situation.

Some Awami League leaders who are inside the country have also raised questions as to how much the leaders who fled abroad are understanding the ground reality in the country before throwing programmes.

They feel that if such programmes continue, more cases will be filed against them and drives will be started to detain them. But at the same time these leaders want to reorganise. But, they do not know how.

Over 800 people were killed in the student-led movement against the Awami League government. More than 21,000 were injured while many lost eyesight or maimed.

Such a scale of violence is unprecedented in the history of independent Bangladesh. This is the major reason behind people’s lack of confidence in Awami League and its leadership.

During the Awami League regime, opposition political parties and dissenters faced oppressions. Election and electoral institutions were destroyed. All the state institutions were politicised. The Awami League would rule the country through these institutions.

Awami League and its associate bodies were sapped organisationally and opportunists gathered around the ruling party. When many once Chhatra League leaders declared themselves as Islami Chhatra Shibir leaders, the leaderships of Awami League and Chhatra League could only gasp in disbelief.

The series of steps taken by the government to deal with the student movement were wrong, many AL leaders think now. Many of them are not sure as to how long it would take the party to turn around. But the party does not want to shoulder the responsibility for the casualty.

The Awami League is still mulling over trying to turn around by bringing forward conspiracy theories. But it can be said for sure that people would not buy this strategy.

* Qadir Kollol is the political affairs editor of Prothom Alo.

** The analysis, originally published in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Galib Ashraf