DUCSU election: 2 surveys put Shibir ahead, candidates question neutrality
Two different surveys on the upcoming Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) and hall council elections have been released over the past two days, both showing Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, in the lead.
Other panels, however, have rejected the report, questioning the neutrality of the surveys. They allege that the polls were carried out by individuals linked to Shibir. In fact, one of the survey organisers’ Dhaka University unit president is contesting the DUCSU elections as a candidate from Shibir’s panel.
The platform, Narrative, presented its findings at a press conference in Madhur Canteen on Saturday, saying it surveyed 526 students between 30 August and 3 September.
The survey focused only on the three top DUCSU posts, vice president (VP), general secretary (GS), and assistant general secretary (AGS). Data was collected through random sampling from students of 14 halls, with an average of 38 students surveyed per hall.
Dhaka University has 19 residential halls, 14 for male students and five for female students. The survey covered 10 male halls and four female halls. Non-residential students, who actually form the majority of voters, were not included.
The results were presented at a press conference by Abdullah Mohammad Ruhel, founder of Narrative.
He said about 95 per cent of students expressed interest in voting in the DUCSU election, while the remaining 5 per cent were not interested.
Non-residential students, who actually form the majority of voters, were not included.
Around 25 per cent of students said they had not yet decided whom to vote for in the VP race. The other 75 per cent had already made their choice.
According to Narrative, among those who had decided, about 42 per cent said they would vote for Abu Shadik Kayem of the Shibir-backed Oikkyaboddho Shikkharthi Jote panel. Independent candidate Shamim Hossain received support from 16.5 per cent of respondents.
The survey also showed that 14 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal’s VP candidate Abidul Islam Khan, while about 9 per cent backed Umama Fatema of the Swatontro Shikkharthi Oikya panel.
While the survey results did show Shibir candidates far ahead, the margin should not have been so wide.Mohiuddin Khan, AGS candidate from the Chhatra Shibir-backed panel
Apart from this, 8 per cent expressed support for Abdul Kader of the Anti-Discrimination Student Council, and 11 per cent said they would vote for other candidates. (Some percentages in the report have been rounded to whole numbers.)
In the GS race, 66 per cent of students said they had already decided on their candidate. Among them, Shibir’s SM Farhad received support from 32.5 per cent, Chhatra Dal’s Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim from 16 per cent, independent candidate Arafat Chowdhury from 16 per cent, and Abu Bakar Mojumdar of the Anti-Discrimination Student Council from about 14 per cent.
These two surveys have already created a lot of doubt among students. We hear that students don’t trust them at all.Abu Baker Mojumdar, GS candidate from the Anti-Discrimination Student Council
Meghmollar Basu of the left alliance Protirodh Parshad (Resistance Council) was backed by 9 per cent. The remaining 12.5 per cent favoured other candidates.
For the AGS position, 59 per cent of students had made their decision. The survey claimed that Shibir’s candidate Muhammad Mohiuddin Khan was leading by a wide margin, with about 53 per cent of the vote.
Chhatra Dal’s Tanvir Al Hadi Mayed was supported by 16 per cent, Ashrefa Khatun of the Boishommobirodhi Chhatra Sangsad (Anti-Discrimination Student Council) by 9 per cent, Jabir Ahmed Jubel of the Resistance Council by 4 per cent, and Fathea Sharmin (Annie) of the Combined Student Council also by 4 per cent. The remaining 14 per cent supported other candidates.
Four halls were excluded from the survey—Kabi Sufia Kamal Hall, Masterda Surjo Sen Hall, Dr Muhammad Shahidullah Hall, and Salimullah Muslim Hall. The surveyors said they were unable to collect data from these halls due to the absence of local representatives.
When asked about the neutrality of the survey, Narrative founder Abdullah Mohammad Ruhel said they had tried to conduct it as impartially as possible, though he admitted all surveys have some margin of error.
Earlier survey on VP solely
Before this, on Friday, an organisation called Sochchar published another survey, conducted online through Google Forms between 1 and 20 August with responses from 991 students. That survey focused only on the VP race.
The surveys lacked consistency. Some sections of students were included, while others were left out. The logic behind that is unclear. If everyone had been represented on a random basis, the results would have been more credible. Such surveys, conducted just before an election, usually aim to influence voter psychology. The purpose is political.Touhidul Haque, associate professor at DU’s Institute of Social Welfare and Research
According to the results, 32 per cent supported the Shibir-backed candidate, 22 per cent supported an independent candidate, and 7 per cent supported the Chhatra Dal candidate. About 34 per cent said they had no opinion, while the remaining 5 per cent were not accounted for in the summary.
Abidul Islam Khan, Chhatra Dal’s VP candidate, questioned the impartiality of both surveys. He told Prothom Alo that Shibir-affiliated people had conducted the surveys to show their candidates in the lead.
“Dhaka University students will not be misled by such surveys. They will give the real verdict through the ballot box,” he said.
Who conducted the surveys?
On campus, discussions have circulated about the ties between Narrative and former Shibir activists.
After the July mass uprising, the organisation hosted several discussion events under its banner. The first event, held on 14 September at Dhaka University, was titled “The July Mass Uprising and the Interim Government: Gains, Expectations, the Future of Bangladesh, and Beyond.”
One of the panelists was Ali Ahsan Junayed, former president of Shibir’s DU unit.
Another Narrative discussion took place on 16 October, 2024, titled “Student Politics After the July Revolution: The Case of Shibir.”
Speakers included SM Farhad, current president of Shibir’s DU unit and now a GS candidate, as well as former activist Mohammad Ishraq.
Commenting on the allegation of Shibir influence, AGS candidate Mohiuddin Khan of the Shibir panel told Prothom Alo that the claim was false.
He said while the survey results did show Shibir candidates far ahead, in his opinion the margin should not have been so wide.
Meanwhile, the DU chapter president of Sochchar, Anas Bin Munir, is himself running as a member candidate from the Oikyaboddho Shikkharthi Jote.
Munir told Prothom Alo that the survey had been conducted by Sochchar’s Bangladesh chapter.
He said, he is the DU president, but he was not involved in this survey.
Other reactions
Criticising the methodology, Sheikh Tasnim Afroz (Emi), VP candidate from the left-backed Resistance Council, told Prothom Alo, if you go online, you only see Chhatra Shibir everywhere. They have so many bot IDs. But the real picture is very different.
Abu Baker Mojumdar, GS candidate from the Anti-Discrimination Student Council, also questioned the neutrality of the surveys.
“These two surveys have already created a lot of doubt among students. We hear that students don’t trust them at all,” he said.
The DUCSU election is scheduled for Tuesday, 9 September, with campaigning ending on Sunday.
Touhidul Haque, associate professor at Dhaka University’s Institute of Social Welfare and Research, said the surveys lacked consistency.
Some sections of students were included, while others were left out. The logic behind that is unclear, he explained.
According to him, if everyone had been represented on a random basis, the results would have been more credible. Such surveys, conducted just before an election, usually aim to influence voter psychology. The purpose is political.