Hussain Muhammad Ershad’s Jatiya Party (JP) has once again split. Ahead of the election following the July uprising, a new Jatiya Party has emerged under the leadership of Anisul Islam Mahmud, bringing together several “heavyweight” leaders. Separately, another faction of the Jatiya Party is being controlled by Ershad’s brother, GM Quader.
Meanwhile, Awami League, whose activities remain banned, cannot take part in the election. However, there is no bar on its ally, the Jatiya Party, contesting the polls. So now there is now discussion over which Jatiya Party, the one led by Anisul Islam Mahmud or the one led by GM Quader, will outdo the other in the upcoming election.
Jatiya Party broke up several times while Ershad was still alive. Each time, however, the faction under Ershad’s leadership stood as the main Jatiya Party. In the 2008 election, Jatiya Party became the third-largest party in parliament. After the 2014 election, it assumed the position of the main opposition in parliament, but also joined the government, a move that drew considerable attention at the time. Ershad’s party played a role in lending “legitimacy” to three controversial elections held under Awami League governments.
Jamaat-e-Islami, National Citizen Party (NCP) and Gono Odhikar Parishad have been demanding a ban on Jatiya Party, describing it as an ally of Awami League that was ousted from power in the July mass uprising. However, while the interim government has imposed a ban on the activities of Awami League, it has not taken any such decision regarding Jatiya Party.
There is discussion in political circles that the parties calling for a ban on Jatiya Party on the grounds that it supported fascism are, in fact, aiming to draw the party’s vote bank into their own fold. On the other hand, with the opportunity to participate in the election, both factions of Jatiya Party have now set their sights on attracting Awami League voters.
Awami League’s top leadership is either in jail or on the run. The party’s chief, Sheikh Hasina, has been sentenced to death on charges of crimes against humanity. She fled to India on 5 August last year in the face of the uprising and remains there. In the 2008 election, Awami League secured 48 per cent of the vote, while in the 2001 election it received 40 per cent. What its actual vote share is now remains a major question. A survey conducted by Prothom Alo last month found that 28 per cent of people favour allowing the Awami League to participate in the next election unconditionally. A large portion of this group can be considered Awami League supporters.
The interim government has made it clear that the Awami League will not be able to participate in the upcoming election. Attempts to allow a “cleansed” Awami League to contest, excluding Sheikh Hasina, have not succeeded. The government had also assumed that relatively “moderate” Awami League leaders might run as independent candidates, but no such signs have appeared. In fact, there are reportedly no such plans or discussions within the party at present. Many parties, including the BNP and Jamaat, now aim to use this opportunity to draw in Awami League votes. The emergence of both factions of the Jatiya Party as claimants to the Awami League vote has drawn additional attention.
Political analysts note that historically Jatiya Party has maintained good relations with the Awami League. During Ershad’s rule, the BNP boycotted the 1986 election, but the Awami League participated. In 1996, after 21 years, the Awami League returned to power with the support of the Jatiya Party. In 2006, the Jatiya Party sided with the Awami League in the anti-BNP–Jamaat government movement. Later, in the 2008 election, it reached an understanding with the Awami League and participated in the vote, joining the government. This long-standing association makes it reasonable for the Jatiya Party to expect some share of the Awami League vote.
Will the new JaPa surpass the old one?
GM Quader, chairman of one faction of the Jatiya Party, served as a minister in the Awami League government from 2009 to 2014. The new Jatiya Party, led by Anisul Islam Mahmud with Executive Chairman Mujibul Haque Chunnu, also had leaders who served in the Awami League-led government, back when the party was still united. Currently, almost all top leaders are with Anisul Islam Mahmud, many of whom have been ministers and members of parliament at different times.
Many leaders who had previously split Jatiya Party to form new parties have now joined this new faction. Among them is the Jatiya Party (JP) led by Anwar Hossain Manju, who was a minister twice under Sheikh Hasina’s government. This alliance has been named the “National Democratic Front (NDF),” which includes 18 registered and unregistered political parties. Notable parties in the alliance include JaPa, JP, Janata Party Bangladesh, Trinamool BNP, Bangladesh Jatiyatabadi Andolan, Bangladesh Sangskritik Mukti Jote, and Gono Front. The alliance has allocated party nominations in 119 constituencies.
Analysis of the NDF’s nomination list shows that at least 18 individuals have served as members of parliament one or more times, and seven of them have held ministerial or state minister positions at different periods. Many of them have been regarded as “heavyweights” in politics. In comparison, the Jatiya Party led by GM Quader now lacks such well-known leaders. As a result, the focus of discussion is currently on the new Jatiya Party.
According to government and political sources, the Jatiya Party led by Anisul Islam Mahmud is receiving support from the government and various influential quarters in multiple ways. Some are even considering positioning the new party as an alternative to Jamaat.
However, the question has again arisen: who will get the plough symbol? Although this has not yet been resolved, most political analysts believe the plough is likely to remain under GM Quader’s faction.
Jatiya Party has been a leader-dependent party from the start. Its organisational structure outside greater Rangpur is not very strong, and its support base has shrunk. In the most recent survey conducted by Prothom Alo, only 0.1 per cent of people believe that JaPa can form the government in the next election. However, the NDF alliance, led by the experienced and familiar leaders Anisul Islam Mahmud, Anwar Hossain Manju, Ruhul Amin Howlader, Kazi Firoz Rashid, and Mujibul Haque Chunnu, is expected to have the potential to make a political impact.
Fewer prominent leaders in GM Quader’s JaPa
Even while Ershad was alive, there was conflict between Raushan Ershad and GM Quader over the leadership of the Jatiya Party. Ershad had run the party in coordination with his younger brother GM Quader and his wife Raushan Ershad. However, after Ershad’s death, that arrangement no longer exists. Although Raushan Ershad is unwell, another faction of the Jatiya Party continues under her leadership. In the 2024 election, the Awami League drew GM Quader forward as the main leader, which pushed Raushan largely into the background. Meanwhile, senior leaders under Anisul Islam Mahmud are now challenging GM Quader.
GM Quader’s Jatiya Party has announced plans to field candidates in all 300 constituencies for the upcoming 13th parliamentary election, and party nomination forms are being sold. However, unlike previous elections, the number of nomination forms purchased is low
Currently, the secretary general of GM Quader’s faction is the comparatively younger Shamim Haider Patwary. Beyond him, the party lacks other well-known leaders. Last September, former secretary general Mashiur Rahman Ranga was expelled from the party. On 14 December, he rejoined after seeking forgiveness. At the same time, former MP of Rangpur-6, Noor Mohammad Mondal, has also returned to the party. These moves are part of an effort to revitalise a fragile party.
According to political analysts, in the northern districts, including Rangpur, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, and Nilphamari, there is still some residual sympathy among the general public for Ershad’s Jatiya Party. This support is expected to lean toward GM Quader’s faction under Ershad’s brother’s leadership. Additionally, the party’s co-chairman and former mayor of Rangpur, Mostafizur Rahman, has a strong local position. Overall, considering the plough symbol and lingering affinity for Ershad, GM Quader’s JP may be able to maintain some standing in the greater Rangpur region, though they are unlikely to have any significant influence nationwide.
After the July uprising, the central office of the Jatiya Party in Kakrail was attacked and set on fire several times. GM Quader’s Jatiya Party has announced plans to field candidates in all 300 constituencies for the upcoming 13th parliamentary election, and party nomination forms are being sold. However, unlike previous elections, the number of nomination forms purchased is low, and interest appears limited. This raises the question of how many qualified candidates the party will be able to nominate nationwide.
During the interim government’s 16-month tenure, GM Quader’s Jatiya Party was unable to conduct substantial political programmes due to its past role. While the government and the Election Commission engaged in dialogue with various political parties, GM Quader’s faction was not invited. In other words, although they can contest the election, they will not receive any official support.
In contrast, the Jatiya Party led by Anisul Islam Mahmud and Anwar Hossain Manju, along with the alliance they have formed, has not faced such obstacles in pursuing their program. In fact, in some cases, they have even received assurances and sympathy from different sections of the government. As a result, discussion is growing over whether the Anisul Islam Mahmud–Anwar Hossain Manju alliance might take the place of the old Jatiya Party.
Voting for the 13th parliamentary election will be held on 12 February. It is believed that those factions able to capture the portion of the Awami League vote that would otherwise go to Jatiya Party are likely to gain an advantage.