After losing power following the mass uprising, the Awami League (AL) is unable to participate in the upcoming national parliamentary election.
Although almost all reactionary political parties in the country have publicly taken the position that the Awami League should be kept out of the election on charges of mass killing, all rival parties are seeking to win over the votes of Awami League supporters.
It has been learned that a constituency-based silent competition is underway in this regard.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, the Jatiya Party, and several other parties believe that attracting AL-supporting voters beyond their own support bases could play a decisive role in victory or defeat. As a result, parties are adopting various strategies to draw votes from the Awami League and its allies.
In some areas, former AL leaders are being brought into parties, while in others, promises of legal relief and protection from cases are being offered by rival parties contesting the 13th parliamentary election. More strategies may emerge once campaign activities begin.
From the Awami League side, a campaign has already been launched on social media saying, “No vote in an election without the boat.”
Allies of the Awami League within the 14-party alliance are also not participating in this election. In this situation, a section of Awami League activists and supporters may not go to vote.
Even so, it is believed that if silent Awami League supporters and voters can be brought to polling centres and retained in favour of a candidate, that candidate’s prospects would improve to some extent.
In Bangladesh, the elections of 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2008 are considered acceptable elections with participation from all parties. Analysis of the results of those four elections shows that the Awami League received 30.08 per cent of the vote in the 5th parliamentary election in 1991, 37.44 per cent in the 7th election in 1996, 40.13 per cent in the 8th election in 2001, and 48.04 per cent in the 9th election in 2008.
After that, the three national elections held in 2014, 2018, and 2024 under Awami League governments were widely rigged and controversial.
Following the fall of the Awami League after the student–public mass uprising on 5 August 2024, it is now impossible for anyone to say with certainty what the party’s actual vote share is. This is because the activities of the AL have been banned.
Most of the party’s leaders, including its president Sheikh Hasina, are either on the run or in prison. Leaders and activists of its associate organisations are in the same situation.
The International Crimes Tribunal has sentenced Sheikh Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to death for crimes against humanity.
In Bangladesh, the elections of 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2008 are considered acceptable elections with participation from all parties. Analysis of the results of those four elections shows that the Awami League received 30.08 per cent of the vote in the 5th parliamentary election in 1991, 37.44 per cent in the 7th election in 1996, 40.13 per cent in the 8th election in 2001, and 48.04 per cent in the 9th election in 2008.
Due to the last three controversial elections, voter resentment toward the AL has grown. Even local government elections were rife with irregularities and forceful takeovers. Taken together, many believe that the Awami League’s public support has declined significantly.
Political sources believe that who receives Awami League votes depends on several factors. First, voters may support candidates who are ideologically close to the party. Second, it will depend on the relationship between voters and specific candidates in particular constituencies. Third, consideration will be given to how hostile candidates or their workers have been toward Awami League activists since the 5 August 2024 mass uprising. Beyond these, any central directive could also play a major role.
BNP standing committee member Salahuddin Ahmed told Prothom Alo that the Awami League has proven to be a fascist force and that its top leader Sheikh Hasina has been punished for crimes against humanity.
He said Awami League supporters have surely realised that it is not right to remain aligned with the party and that it has no future. As a result, patriotic people will move toward parties like the BNP, which declared independence and stands with patriots.
Salahuddin Ahmed added that social reconciliation has already taken place at the grassroots level, though perhaps not as much in cities. With the election approaching, people from all political backgrounds are now focusing on voting.
Parties seek votes but tactically
At an election dialogue organised by The Daily Star on 23 December, National Citizen Party (NCP) convener Nahid Islam said that the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are actively competing to secure Awami League votes.
“Now whoever wants to take these votes has to show some symptoms. Then they are being told that cases will be withdrawn,” he said.
There is discussion in political circles that leaders of the anti-discrimination student movement led the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government and later formed the NCP. Naturally, Awami League supporters harbour the most resentment toward the NCP.
Jamaat-e-Islami, NCP, and other parties were vocal in demanding a ban on the Awami League. On the question of banning the Awami League, BNP leaders at various times said they were not in favour of banning any political party.
The BNP did not take part in movements demanding the Awami League’s ban. However, after the government banned the Awami League’s activities, the BNP expressed support. In various districts, Awami League leaders and activists have been joining the BNP.
Jamaat-e-Islami, NCP, and other parties were vocal in demanding a ban on the Awami League. On the question of banning the Awami League, BNP leaders at various times said they were not in favour of banning any political party.
During Awami League rule, top Jamaat leaders were executed on charges of war crimes. Just before the government fell, Jamaat itself was banned. The Awami League considers Jamaat an enemy. On 1 January, former MP from Chapainawabganj-3 (Sadar) and Jamaat central committee member Latifur Rahman announced that Jamaat would take full responsibility for those joining from the Awami League.
He said, “You come to our party from the Awami League. We will take all responsibility—jail, police station, any liability—we will bear it, Insha’Allah.”
Earlier, Jamaat leaders went to a police station in Sitakunda, Chattogram, to secure the release of an Awami League leader. In Gazipur, Jamaat leaders and activists held protest marches to free an Awami League leader.
In Sunamganj-2 (Dirai–Shalla) constituency, Jamaat candidate Shishir Monir collected nomination papers accompanied by people from various professions and religions, including several Hindus. In this constituency, the late Awami League leader Suranjit Sen Gupta had long served as MP. Shishir Monir is attempting to attract Suranjit Sen Gupta’s supporters ahead of the upcoming election.
NCP senior joint convener Ariful Islam Adeeb does not view attempts by the BNP and Jamaat to attract Awami League votes negatively. However, he believes the process being used is not appropriate.
He told Prothom Alo that leaders of various parties are making controversial statements to attract Awami League votes, with some even talking about withdrawing cases against the party.
He said this amounts to legitimising the July massacre. The NCP supports attracting votes through candidates’ work, but attempting to win votes by patronising criminals is a dire warning sign for democracy.
Strategy in nominations
There has long been a belief that a large portion of Hindu voters support Awami League candidates. Awami League leaders also largely relied on minority voters, including the Hindu community. In the 13th parliamentary election, the BNP and Jamaat have adopted a strategy of nominating Hindu candidates to attract minority votes.
In the past, Jamaat was not known for including people of other religions. However, after the 5 August 2024 mass uprising, committees including minority members have been formed.
In Khulna-1 constituency, Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidate is Krishna Nandi, president of the Dumuria Upazila Hindu Committee. Initially, Jamaat had declared Sheikh Abu Yusuf, the ameer of Jamaat’s Batiaghata upazila unit, as its candidate for the seat. The constituency has a large Hindu population, and in the past, Hindu candidates have frequently been elected as MPs, both from the Awami League and as independents.
In Kishoreganj-3 (Karimganj–Tarail), Jamaat has nominated retired Colonel Jihad Khan, brother-in-law of former president Abdul Hamid. Although he has long been involved in Jamaat politics, many believe the move may be aimed at attracting Awami League votes.
Jamaat-e-Islami secretary general Mia Golam Porwar told Prothom Alo that the Awami League is now an unfit party for elections and cannot participate.
However, he said its supporters should have the right to vote. He added that political realities have changed after the July mass uprising, and considering that reality, Awami League supporters are expected to vote judiciously for their preferred candidates.
After the fall of the Awami League, there was discussion about a ‘refined’ Awami League. It was thought that relatively clean leaders might contest as independents, but that has not materialised.
The BNP has nominated Kapil Krishna Mandal in Bagerhat-1 (Fakirhat–Mollahat–Chitalmari) and Somanath Dey in Bagerhat-4 (Sharankhola–Morelganj). Both were previously associated with Awami League politics.
Kapil Krishna Mandal is also general secretary of the Matua Bahujan Samaj Oikya Jote, secretary general of the Bangladesh chapter of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, and president of the Bangladesh Ashwini Seva Ashram. Local Awami League and BNP leaders said he previously served as vice president of the Kalatala Union Awami League. Somanath Dey is president of the Matua Bahujan Samaj Oikya Jote and formerly served as president of the Bangladesh chapter of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, as well as a member of the Morelganj Upazila Awami League executive committee.
In Chattogram-14 (Chandanaish–Satkania), BNP nominee businessman Jasim Uddin Ahmed is known as an Awami League-aligned businessman, drawing criticism even from within the BNP.
After the fall of the Awami League, there was discussion about a ‘refined’ Awami League. It was thought that relatively clean leaders might contest as independents, but that has not materialised. As a result, parties participating in the election are trying in their own ways to attract Awami League voters. Success in this effort would increase vote shares on the one hand and further weaken the Awami League’s political position on the other.
Nagarik Okya convener Mahmudur Rahman Manna believes that if the Awami League makes a political decision to vote collectively, it would be a major factor. However, he doubts that will happen. Awami League supporters may vote in a fragmented way, which could be decisive in constituencies where results are determined by narrow margins.
He added that similar efforts were made to attract Muslim League votes after independence and Jatiya Party votes after Ershad’s fall. These are not new phenomena, as political parties focus on numbers rather than values. It is therefore natural that Awami League votes are being contested this time as well.