AL concerned if BNP lay siege in Dhaka

Ruling Awami League apprehends that the BNP and like-minded opposition parties might besiege Dhaka at one stage of the ongoing anti-government movement.

If they can lay siege to Dhaka, the opposition parties may call nonstop sit-in programme in the capital city demanding ouster of the government. Awami League has been taking to streets with counter programmes out of this apprehension.  

AL thinks their presence in the streets has so far thwarted BNP to create such a situation. It is not yet clear whether BNP would take part in the next general election. If the BNP drags its ongoing street agitation till the next general election, Awami League will also reciprocate. The ruling party thinks that such counter movement would keep its activists buoyant and help them prepare for the next election.

Alongside the party, the government too has its internal assessment on the current political situation. According to its evaluation, BNP’s failure to take control of Dhaka’s streets in last 14 years is one of the most determining factors behind AL’s prolonged and uninterrupted stay in the power.

If BNP can take position in Dhaka ahead of next general election, the confidence of the civil-military administration on the government’s capability might face a blow. Such a sit-in can also debilitate the government’s position on the mass people’s eyes. In such a case, mass people exasperated by price hike of commodities might join BNP’s anti-government agitation. If such a situation arises, the government would face stiff challenge controlling the situation.

Moreover, AL has noticed some influential foreign countries took interest in the BNP’s recent agitation. Perhaps these countries want to see BNP and the other opposition parties’ prowess. This is a reason AL wants to show its strength through counter movement.  The party’s leadership said such counter programme is keeping BNP under pressure while it also shows ruling party’s strength in the streets.

When asked to AL leaders as to why the government is worried about a possible street agitation by BNP—a party which failed to roil the streets in last 14 years.

AL two central leaders, on condition of anonymity, told Prothom Alo that the government is now a bit under pressure for arranging a credible election, not obstructing the democratic movements of the opposition parties and ensuring participation of BNP and other opposition parties in the next general election. This is the reason the government is not using law enforcers to quell the BNP’s agitation just now. Moreover, the US sanction on RAB officials and talks about a possibility of more sanctions in the future play a role behind not using the law enforcers in quelling the opposition agitation. That’s why the government stresses on facing the opposition parties politically as much as possible.

The two leaders said if BNP still put the government in any uncomfortable situation, the government would use the law enforcers effectively alongside continuing counter programme. For example, ruling party men and law enforcers were used simultaneously when BNP created a fearful environment centering its mass rally on 10 December.  US assistant foreign secretary Donald Lu during his Dhaka visit did not exert much pressure to the government which testifies the AL’s strategy has worked.

Asked about the situation, AL’s presidium member and deputy leader of the parliament Matia Chowdhury told Prothom Alo that people has not forgotten the past misdeeds of BNP including arson attack. How can AL remain lax letting BNP loose? Also BNP is propagating falsehood relentlessly which needs to be answered.

She added that AL is organising its rallies maintaining a distance so there is no chance of any conflict if BNP does not initiate one.

AL sources said the party mainly has two strategies. Firstly, they will throw counter programmes everywhere but put highest emphasis on Dhaka. Secondly, the AL would not initiate a conflict. The law enforcers would be used when use of force is required. AL’s activists would remain active in the streets only to keep BNP under pressure and intimidate. The policymakers think AL has so far advanced in keeping with this strategy. That is why AL general secretary Obaidul Quader announced to keep on the programmes till the next general election.

AL thinks BNP could not succeed in its agitation in 2013-15 despite cutting Dhaka off many parts of the country as it failed to take control of the capital. Meanwhile, the law enforcers have kept BNP under pressure in big cities outside Dhaka. While AL’s focus would be on keeping BNP at bay in Dhaka, they would also try to ensure supremacy in other cities.

An AL leader on condition of anonymity told Prothom Alo that the counter programmes may turn violent if BNP does not participate in the polls. Because, BNP might be thinking of launching tougher movement after the next Ramadan (Arabic month of fasting). In such situation, a chaotic situation may erupt.

AL has many decision making bodies such as presidium, executive body, national committee and advisory committee to take internal decisions. As per the party’s constitution, these committees supposed to discuss before taking any important decision. But AL leaders are not aware of any discussion in party forums regarding the programmes countering BNP’s ones. They maintain these forums only discuss and approve the programmes taken centering different important days. There is a few instances of discussion on issues centering political strategy. The party leaders try to get ‘message’ out of speeches of the party chief.

Only a handful of leaders would know about the recent counter programmes. Party’s general secretary Obaidul Quader coordinated among the different units to organise these programmes.

A senior AL leader on condition of anonymity told Prothom Alo that the party leaders have been embroiled in internal conflicts in various forms. They now find an opponent after BNP took to the streets.

Moreover, some AL leaders think BNP enjoyed massive media coverage as it started its divisional rallies in November. But as AL started to throw counter programmes, the media coverage got divided. Now the AL’s programmes get more coverage. This would not be possible if counter programme was not announced.

The counter programmes were started as  AL men take to the streets alongside law enforcers on 10 December centering BNP’s Dhaka divisional mass rally.

AL presidium member Kazi Zafrullah told Prothom Alo, “Keeping the control of streets is a norm in politics. BNP is trying to take the control and we are not letting them the chance.”