Bangladesh faces heightened risks from energy dependence and remittance flows

Bangladesh faces significantly greater risks than many other developing, least developed and emerging economies as a result of the crisis triggered by the Iran war.

The country's vulnerability stems from its dependence on energy imports from the Gulf region in the Middle East.

At the same time, a large number of Bangladeshi migrant workers are employed in member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where they play a vital role in supporting Bangladesh's economy through remittance inflows.

Jin Liangxiang, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies and Senior Fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), made these observations.

On Friday, he delivered a keynote address titled "The Iran–US Conflict and the Emerging Security Landscape" on the opening day of the two-day Bengal Delta Conference 2026 in Dhaka. The international conference has been organised by the Dhaka Institute of Research and Analytics (DIRA).

The opening day of the conference featured discussions on economic planning and investment, energy security, media rights and responsibilities, atrocity risks and prevention strategies.

Participants also examined regional cooperation, post-revolution history and politics, women and work in South Asia, trade and commerce, as well as a special session reflecting on the July mass uprising and its future trajectory.

In his approximately 10-minute address, Jin Liangxiang outlined the background to the Iran war, which has had a profound impact on the global community, and discussed its consequences.

Referring to Bangladesh, he said the country's energy sector remains deeply connected to the economies of the GCC member states. Disruptions to oil supplies and rising international oil prices have already begun to affect Bangladesh.

He noted that Bangladesh, as part of the Global South, has a far more vulnerable economy than countries such as China, the United States or Japan. He added that Bangladesh also remains comparatively less resilient in dealing with global crises of this nature.

According to the Chinese researcher, another major source of Bangladesh's vulnerability, alongside energy dependence, is the large number of Bangladeshi migrant workers employed in GCC countries.

The remittances they send home play a crucial role in sustaining Bangladesh's economy. If the economies of the GCC countries were to face a severe downturn over time, many of these workers could lose their jobs.

Jin Liangxiang said "Bangladesh must prepare for every possible scenario and take steps to minimise potential losses as much as possible." He added, "The Iran war could have even greater global consequences than the war in Ukraine."

Rejecting the assumption that Iran would collapse easily, Liangxiang said "Iran has achieved significant self-reliance in military capability, which has enabled the country to sustain a prolonged conflict."

Steve Ross, senior fellow at the Washington-based security think tank Stimson Center, said Bangladesh must continue to maintain an uncomfortable balance between Myanmar's government and the Arakan Army over the Rohingya issue.

In his keynote address titled "Myanmar at Crossroads: Conflict, Governance and Regional Future," he said that even if a ceasefire is reached in Myanmar, there remains a strong possibility that conflict will resume.

Therefore, even if the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army agree to a ceasefire, it is highly unlikely to endure indefinitely.

Such instability would directly affect efforts to repatriate the Rohingya. "For that reason, Bangladesh must continue to maintain this uncomfortable balance," he said.

According to Steve Ross, resolving the ongoing conflict in Myanmar remains extremely difficult. He said it is impossible to place confidence in the military after it overthrew the democratically elected government, and the armed forces have shown little interest in engaging in meaningful dialogue.

Meanwhile, armed groups opposing the junta have also realised that control of territory is essential to securing international recognition and political legitimacy.

The American researcher said the likely trajectory of the conflict in Myanmar carries several important implications for Bangladesh. A durable resolution to the conflict is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Consequently, much of the international community's attention and resources will remain focused on addressing Myanmar's broader conflict, meaning that the Rohingya crisis may not receive the same level of separate international attention.

On the second and final day of the international conference, scheduled for Saturday, discussions will focus on transboundary water sharing, institutional reform and democratic consolidation, the transition from the ICT Act to the Cyber Security Ordinance, post-uprising state experiences, Rohingya repatriation and sustainable peace, Nepal's democratic journey, and several other related issues.