BNP, allies under pressure from rebel candidates in 46 constituencies

Ahead of the parliamentary election, leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have defied party decisions to contest as independent—or “rebel”—candidates in at least 79 constituencies.

Among them, rebel candidates are in a strong position in at least 46 seats, putting significant pressure on BNP’s Sheaf of Paddy candidates and those backed through electoral understanding.

Local party leaders, activists, and voters say that in many of these constituencies, rebel candidates have a realistic chance of winning. In others, vote splitting within BNP is increasing the prospects of Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamaat-backed candidates.

Voting will be held on 12 February in all 300 parliamentary constituencies. BNP has fielded party candidates under its electoral symbol in 291 seats.

As part of its joint movement, the party has left eight seats to allied parties, where BNP-backed candidates from other parties are contesting. In one constituency—Cumilla-4—BNP has no candidate due to the cancellation of nomination papers.

Initially, around 190 BNP leaders submitted nomination papers against party decisions in 117 constituencies. The party held talks to prevent them from being rebel candidate and took organisational action against others for breaching party discipline.

Some rebel nominations were cancelled during scrutiny by returning officers, while others withdrew following requests from senior party leaders. Ultimately, however, at least 92 BNP leaders did not withdraw their candidacies in 79 constituencies.

In some seats, multiple BNP rebel candidates are contesting, while in others, a single individual is contesting independently in more than one constituency.

BNP has already expelled many leaders for contesting against party decisions. In several areas, local committees have been dissolved for supporting rebel candidates.

Despite these measures, rebel candidates remain active in the race. In some constituencies, sections of BNP leaders and activists are campaigning for rebels. Elsewhere, leaders denied nominations are neither running as rebels nor campaigning for party candidates.

Analysts say BNP’s failure to control rebel candidates reflects organisational weakness and may negatively impact election results. How many seats BNP ultimately loses due to rebellion remains to be seen.

BNP Election Steering Committee spokesperson and adviser to the party chairperson, Mahdi Amin, told Prothom Alo that many party leaders played important roles in past movements and struggles and felt their contributions might be recognised through nominations. However, as only one candidate can be nominated per seat, some felt deprived. That frustration, he said, may have manifested in their decision to contest independently.

“We are taking necessary organisational measures,” Mahdi Amin said. “We believe that through coordinated efforts, victory for the Sheaf of Paddy candidates will be ensured.”

All four constituencies in Bagerhat district have BNP rebel candidates. In Bagerhat-1, 2, and 3, former MP for Bagerhat-2 and former district BNP president MAH Selim, owner of Silver Line Group, is contesting. He currently holds no position in the party.

In Bagerhat-1, Selim is joined by Sheikh Masud Rana, a former member of the district BNP convening committee, who has been expelled for contesting against the party candidate. In Bagerhat-4, Kazi Khairuzzaman, another former convening committee member, is contesting as an independent and has also been expelled.

All independent and rebel candidates are actively campaigning. MAH Selim told Prothom Alo that voters do not recognise the officially nominated BNP candidates and that they would not be able to defeat Jamaat candidates. “I am contesting independently to protect BNP’s seats and interests,” he said. “If I win, I can tell the party that I am safeguarding these seats for BNP.”

However, many local BNP leaders and activists say that having multiple BNP candidates will split the vote and benefit rival parties—a concern shared even by BNP’s official candidates.

Asked whether independent candidates would pose a challenge to the BNP’s sheaf-of-paddy symbol, BNP candidate for Bagerhat-2 constituency Sheikh Mohammad Zakir Hossain told Prothom Alo that the independent candidate contesting there is indeed somewhat harmful for the sheaf-of-paddy candidate.

“This is because he is claiming himself to be a BNP candidate, even though he does not even hold primary membership of the party,” he said.

The BNP candidate further alleged that the independent contender in his constituency is attempting to create unrest by bringing in outsiders. However, he claimed that BNP’s tested and trusted leaders and activists remain united.

In Dhaka-14 constituency, BNP candidate is Sanzida Islam Tuli. However, she is facing competition in the field from expelled BNP leader SA Siddique Saju. His father, SA Khalek, is a former Member of Parliament from the area, and many believe the family still holds considerable influence in the constituency.

As a result, the sheaf-of-paddy candidate Sanzida is under some pressure. Jamaat-e-Islami has nominated Mir Ahmad bin Qasem Arman—who was a victim of enforced disappearance for a long time—in this constituency. He is also in the race as a strong contender.

In Cumilla-2 constituency (Homna–Titas), BNP candidate is Selim Bhuiyan. Here, a rebel (independent) candidate is Md Abdul Matin Khan, who previously served as APS-2 to BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia.

BNP expelled him from the party for contesting the election independently against party decisions. Despite this, he remains active on the campaign trail. Disgruntled BNP leaders and activists who were denied party posts are actively campaigning in Matin’s favour. Several clashes have already occurred between supporters of the BNP candidate and the rebel candidate.

Md Shariful Islam, a resident of Asadpur area in Homna upazila, said voters believe the contest will essentially be a fight between the BNP candidate and the rebel candidate.

In addition, rebel candidates are in strong positions as contenders against BNP’s official nominees in Dinajpur-2 and 5, Pabna-3, Sylhet-5, Narayanganj-2 and 3, Brahmanbaria-5, Habiganj-1, Kishoreganj-1, Tangail-3 and 5, Sunamganj-3, Panchagarh-2, Gopalganj-2, Barishal-1, Narail-1, Jhenaidah-4, Naogaon-1, 3 and 6, the hilly constituency of Khagrachhari, Satkhira-3, Chattogram-16, Rangpur-3, Munshiganj-1, Rajbari-2, Manikganj-1, Jashore-5, Noakhali-2, Chandpur-4, Madaripur-1, and Mymensingh-1, 2, 6, 7 and 9 constituencies.

Although the BNP did not formally announce an electoral alliance in this election, it reached seat-sharing arrangements with parties involved in the joint movement. The BNP left eight constituencies to top leaders of these allied parties and extended its support to them. However, in four of those seats, BNP leaders have contested as independent or rebel candidates.

Under the electoral arrangement, the BNP left the Dhaka-12 seat to the Revolutionary Workers Party. In this constituency, the party’s general secretary Saiful Haque is contesting with the kodal (hoe) symbol.

At the same time, former convener of BNP’s Dhaka North city unit, Saiful Alam (Nirab), is contesting as an independent candidate. The BNP expelled him for running as an independent candidate. BNP leaders and activists believe that his presence in the race has put the BNP-backed candidate under pressure in this seat.

In Patuakhali-3 (Galachipa–Dashmina), the BNP’s seat-sharing candidate is Nurul Haque Nur, president of the Gono Odhikar Parishad. In this constituency, former president of the Dhaka University unit of Chhatra Dal and former executive member of the BNP central committee, Hasan Mamun, is contesting as a rebel candidate. He was expelled from the party on 30 December. A section of the local BNP supports him.

In this context, for defying party decisions and working against Nur, the BNP dissolved two unit committees of Galachipa and Dashmina upazilas, and expelled Dashmina Upazila Chhatra Dal convener Kazi Tanzir Ahmed Rizwan.

However, a section of the BNP is working in support of Nurul Haque Nur. Tension prevails between the supporters of Hasan Mamun and Nurul Haque Nur over the election, and several incidents of attacks and clashes have taken place.

In Brahmanbaria-2 (Sarail–Ashuganj and parts of Bijoynagar), the BNP’s seat-sharing candidate is Maulana Junaid Al Habib, joint secretary-general of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh’s central committee.

In this constituency, BNP's rebel candidates include Rumeen Farhana, a former lawmaker from a reserved seat as well as the party’s former assistant secretary for international affairs, and SN Tarun Dey, former vice-president of the central committee of Chhatra Dal. Both were expelled from the party for contesting as rebel candidates.

Many grassroots BNP leaders and activists are campaigning in support of Rumeen Farhana. As a result, the party has suspended the full 71-member Shahjadapur union committee. In addition, the general secretary of the Shahbazpur union committee, along with six other leaders and several grassroots activists from different party-affiliated organisations at the union level, have been expelled.

Many BNP leaders and activists from Ashuganj upazila who support Rumeen Farhana have also been expelled. Despite these organisational measures, party leaders and activists continue to campaign openly for Rumeen Farhana.

Similarly, in Narayanganj-4, the party’s seat-sharing candidate, Monir Hossain Kasemi, joint secretary-general of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh, is under pressure due to rebel candidates. In this constituency, expelled BNP executive committee member and business leader Mohammad Shah Alam and Muhammad Gias Uddin are contesting as independent candidates.

Political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman told Prothom Alo that it had been foreseeable that the tendency of BNP leaders to contest as rebel candidates would be high, given that the last three elections were not genuine. However, he said, the presence of 92 BNP rebel candidates in 79 constituencies is astonishing and reflects the party’s organisational weakness in failing to control them.

Zahed Ur Rahman added that as the election draws closer, the strong position of rebel candidates is likely to weaken. Many voters, he said, tend to vote based on which party they believe is likely to win. He also noted that some voters consider the fact that rebel candidates often fall out of favour with their parties, and that development in an area may suffer if such candidates are elected.

[The report was prepared with contributions from Prothom Alo correspondents in the respective areas.]