No immediate risk of fuel shortage even if Strait of Hormuz closes

After the United States and Israel carried out strikes, a warning was broadcast over maritime radio on Saturday night advising vessels to stop sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The announcement has created uncertainty in import-export trade that relies heavily on the Middle East. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Sunday that currently there is no plan to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Businesspeople and energy sector insiders say that even if the strait were closed, there would be no immediate fuel shortage. However, if the situation continues for a prolonged period, pressure could mount on supply chains.

Bangladesh conducts trade with seven countries through the Strait of Hormuz: Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Because of the ongoing conflict, transport risks have also increased through the Gulf of Oman, which lies beside the strait.

Ships travelling from the Persian Gulf pass through the Strait of Hormuz and then the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal before reaching Bangladesh.

Although the radio message warned of a closure, Iran has not officially announced such a move. Data from ship-tracking organisation MarineTraffic on Sunday showed that while some vessels had changed course, limited shipping through the strait was still continuing. Concern increased further the same day after an attack on an oil tanker named Skylight.

According to Bangladesh Bank, imports from countries dependent on this route amounted to nearly 6 billion US dollars in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Data from the National Board of Revenue shows that exports to those countries during the same period were worth 750 million dollars. Although exports are comparatively smaller, a large portion of essential imports such as fuel oil, gas and LPG comes from this region.

Sources at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) said that a vessel carrying 100,000 tonnes of crude oil is scheduled to be loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port between 1 and 3 March. The ship is expected to reach Chattogram after passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, uncertainty has arisen over whether the voyage will begin on time. About half of BPC’s crude oil imports come through this route.

BPC officials say there is no fuel shortage in the country at present. But if the situation in the strait persists, it could disrupt supply planning. Bangladesh currently has 201,610 tonnes of diesel in stock, which can meet demand for about 14 days. Daily demand is around 14,000 tonnes. Another 380,000 tonnes of diesel are expected to arrive this month. Petrol stocks are sufficient for about 20 days, octane for 30 days and furnace oil for 93 days.

BPC director (commercial) AKM Azadur Rahman said crude oil is imported through the Strait of Hormuz, but refined oil does not usually arrive directly through that route. Discussions have already been held with companies in the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Indonesia and several other countries, and none has indicated any negative developments regarding supply.

Bangladesh is heavily dependent on Qatar for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to National Board of Revenue data, customs clearance for 2.337 million tonnes of LNG imports was completed by February of the current fiscal year. About 65 per cent of this came from Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz.

Petrobangla Chairman Md Erfanul Haque told Prothom Alo that four LNG-carrying vessels had already passed through the strait before the conflict began. As a result, there is no major concern until 12 March. However, two vessels scheduled to arrive on 15 and 18 March are expected to travel through the same route. If they are delayed, some supply pressure may arise. Alternative sources for LNG imports, such as Australia and Malaysia, are also available.

There is also no immediate shortage of LPG, although businesspeople in the sector say there could be risks in the long term. Amirul Haque, president of LPG Operators of Bangladesh, said three ships waiting to enter the Hormuz region had changed course. However, the country is not expected to face LPG problems immediately.

According to the National Board of Revenue, 171,000 tonnes of LPG were imported through Chattogram and Mongla ports and the Sitakunda jetty in February, about 30 per cent higher than that in January.

In addition, LPG carriers scheduled to arrive during the first two weeks of March are already on their way to Chattogram and Mongla ports. Of the nearly 57,000 tonnes of LPG imported by Meghna Group of Industries (MGI), a large portion has already reached port and the rest is on its way.

When asked, MGI Chairman Mostafa Kamal said the LPG carriers heading towards Chattogram port are continuing their journey. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were closed, there would be no immediate problem. However, deliveries of future shipments could be delayed.

In the previous fiscal year, about 75 per cent of LPG imports came through the Strait of Hormuz. However, during the first two months of this year, the share dropped to 21 per cent. A large portion, about 67 per cent, came from the US, reducing overall dependence on the route.

Experts associated with the energy sector say Bangladesh’s capacity for long-term fuel storage is limited. Therefore, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for more than two weeks, pressure could arise on supplies of oil, gas and LPG alike. While there is no immediate crisis, a prolonged disruption could put Bangladesh’s energy security to a serious test.

State minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit told Prothom Alo, “There is no immediate concern regarding energy imports and supply. Plans have been prepared to address any potential crisis resulting from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or conflict in the Middle East. We are working on all possible sources for importing fuel oil and LNG.”