Heatwaves threaten jobs and economic growth in South Asia: World Bank

Extreme heat is already causing South Asia to lose the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs annually. If the trend continues, the region’s economy could shrink by nearly seven per cent by 2050. During the same period, South Asia’s working-age population is projected to increase by another 280 million.

This means rising temperatures are becoming a major threat to employment, productivity and long-term economic growth across the region, according to a press release.

The findings are outlined in the World Bank’s latest report, ‘A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia’s Cities’.

According to the report, by 2070, around 520 million people in the region could face dangerously high temperatures for at least one month each year. At present, the number of people exposed to such risks is only about one-quarter of that figure.

Extreme heat is reducing workers’ productivity, disrupting business activity and undermining the competitiveness of cities. It is also placing growing pressure on healthcare systems and critical infrastructure. Low-income households, informal workers, women, children and older people are expected to bear the greatest burden.

Johannes Zutt, the World Bank’s vice president for South Asia, said the region’s economic future depends heavily on its cities. However, rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods and economic growth at risk.

According to him, building heat-resilient cities is not only essential for protecting people but also a prerequisite for safeguarding employment, boosting productivity, attracting investment and sustaining economic growth.

The report calls for extreme heat to be treated not merely as a seasonal disaster but as a central development challenge. It urges governments to integrate heat-risk management into urban planning, infrastructure development, public policy and private investment.

The World Bank recommends investing in heat-resilient infrastructure, strengthening heat action plans, protecting vulnerable workers, expanding sustainable cooling systems, improving early warning systems and increasing both public and private investment.

The report was prepared with support from the Resilient Asia Programme, funded under the UK government’s Climate Action for a Resilient Asia (CARA) programme of the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

It also received support from the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the City Resilience Programme (CRP).

John Warburton, climate resilience lead for the Indo-Pacific regional department at the FCDO, said extreme heat is destroying livelihoods across South Asia. It is placing greater pressure on public health while reducing productivity.

The most vulnerable communities are suffering the greatest losses and are being pushed deeper into poverty. In his view, this is not only a climate crisis but also a development crisis, making coordinated, long-term action across sectors essential.

The report also notes that several South Asian cities have already introduced measures such as heat action plans, urban greening, heat-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems and energy-efficient cooling technologies.

These initiatives are producing positive results. However, expanding them will require stronger institutions, better coordination and greater investment from both the public and private sectors.

According to the World Bank, South Asia is urbanising rapidly, and the decisions governments make today will determine the future of its cities. Whether these cities continue to serve as engines of employment, innovation and economic growth, or see their potential eroded by rising temperatures, will depend on policy choices.

The World Bank therefore urges governments to increase investment in heat resilience now to protect lives and livelihoods, strengthen economies and secure long-term prosperity.