Uncertainty mounts over Ukraine situation

The eventful year of 2022 may have drawn to a close, but its impact lingers on. The Ukraine-Russia war, one of the most destructive conflicts in European history, has left the post-Covid world reeling. On 24 February 2022, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. One year has passed since then. Political scientists maintain that since 1945, this Ukraine-Russia war has been the most destructive among all conflicts in Europe.

At the orders of Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Russian troops stormed into Ukraine's Donbas region on 24 February last year. In 2008 when NATO took into consideration the matter of making Ukraine a member, Russia felt this was a threat to their existence and consequently took the decision to attack Ukraine. While, with the help of western forces, Ukraine managed to resist this attack to an extent, in September last year Russia carried out the annexation of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions through a referendum. From the very outset, Ukraine's position was somewhat boosted by financial and military support from the countries of the West and hired troops from Africa and the Middle East regions. Meanwhile, Russia has used the hired militia of Wagner Group to consolidate its position further.

The Ukraine war has basically become a war of establishing global dominance. On one hand the United States is endeavouring to maintain its unilateral global dominance, while on the other, the consideration of making Ukraine a NATO member is pushing Russia into a corner. This has resulted in Putin leading the attack on Ukraine which, in turn, has created a sense of insecurity among European nations and so they have opted to take a stand against Russia, under US leadership.

It is winter in Ukraine now, the ground is covered in ice, the soft and slippery soil making mobility impossible for tanks and other heavy military vehicles. But the beginning of March ushers in spring in Europe. The weather undergoes a transformation then and it is expected that Russia will take up its 'spring offensive'. Already 50,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed on ground. Around another 250,000 are being trained and prepared to join the war. Under the present circumstances, as part of its winter war strategy, Russia is using its fuel as a weapon. The European power sector was hit hard after Russia cut down on supplying gas. Now Russia's main target is to crush the morale of the Ukrainians by destroying the power and energy infrastructure all over Ukraine. This Russian offensive has led to unbearable human suffering.

Russian president Putin has threatened that Russia will use all weapons it has to protect its own territory. Russia has accused Ukraine of using the 'dirty bomb', warning that it would counter this by launching tactical nuclear weapons. The US, however, has warned that the use of nuclear weapons will have disastrous consequences. America issued this warning directly to Russia, but it cannot be said for certain whether this warning will have any effect or not. If for any reason nuclear weapons are used in this post-World War II world, warfare will be transformed completely and there is no saying whether it will be possible to contain the stark danger of such conflict. There is also the fear that this conflict may not remain confined to Ukraine, but spread over countries of Europe.

The US, the European Union and other countries have imposed broad diplomatic and economic sanctions against Russia in response to the attack. The European Council has cancelled Russia's membership and Russia's veto power has been suspended in the UN Human Rights Council. But Russia has tackled these economic sanctions better than expected. Despite these economic sanctions, the Russian economy has only shrunk by a little over 3 per cent. IMF says in 2023 Russia economy will see near to a 0.3 per cent recovery. The sanctions of the US and Europe against Russian have failed to deliver optimum results.

Historically it has been observed that Russia has the state capacity to withstand the pressure of sanctions. And so it has not been possible to isolate Russia from the global economy completely. While Russian trade with the West may have collapsed, its trade with Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and African countries continues to expand.

In the meantime, in its efforts to tackle the war situation, Ukraine's economy has almost collapsed. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia's extensive attack is a challenge to the collective security of Europe. He has termed this war as a war of the entire Europe. The US, Germany and UK are supplying Ukraine with tanks in this war. Zelensky, however, has asked NATO not only for tanks, but for fighter aircraft. No clear commitment has been received in this regard as yet. Ukraine officials feel that Russia may launch a fresh offensive in order to extend the territory it has occupied in Ukraine. Alongside resisting this move, Ukraine also wants to retrieve its lost territory.

Analysing the Russia-Ukraine war one year since its inception, it will be noted that Russia has adopted several strategies during the war. From the outset it has made an effort to fully utilise its cyber strategies. Ukraine could not stand up against these strategies of Russia. Russia has effectively managed to assert its influence on the people of the eastern parts of Ukraine it has occupied. Overall, other than conventional warfare, there has been extensive use of hybrid warfare, known in war terminology as the Gerasimov doctrine.

New divisions have emerged globally as a result of the Ukraine war and for countries like Bangladesh which maintains friendship with all, it has become difficult to strike a balance. This will become ever more difficult in the days ahead. In the case of international relations, this war poses as a serious threat, particularly to the rules-based global order.

It is still not possible to predict the future consequence of the war. However, it will certainly have an extensive impact on global politics. Already significant changes have been visible in the European security sphere. The assertion made by France during Donald Trump's presidency in the US, that Europe will always ensure its own security, is now under threat. European security is now dependent on the US to a great extent. This exposes a fragile picture of the European security sphere. Russia may have started the war, but its future depends largely on America. Many are of the opinion that this has now become a proxy war. While America has not been directly harmed by this war, Europe and Asia have been extensively harmed. But all indications are that the Ukraine war may prove to be the longest lasting war of the 21st century.

* Major General ANM Muniruzzaman ndc, psc, (retd) is the founder and the president of the security think-tank Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies. [email protected]

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir