World Order changing patterns

Ping pong diplomacy melted the antagonistic relations between the US and China, changing the scenario of the global political landscape in the Cold War. In 1971, after friendship grew between the US and China, the USSR became more vulnerable in world politics. From 1949 to 1971, there had been no relationship between the two countries, not even political, economic or even cultural. The visit of former US President Richard Nixon to China changed the scenario. That is the first time when relations between the countries changed and the US granted China free and open space and even acknowledged the One-China Policy. After this, the bipolar system of world politics had been changing, and finally the US got the world under their unipolar hegemonic control. In recent times, the world order has taken another turn where regional powers are gaining more power and superpower dominance, also introducing a new dimension.

In 1991, the dissolution of the Soviet Union made Russia go from a struggling country to a superpower in the bipolar international system. Relations with the US made China one of the most powerful regional powers in East Asia, and they used that to develop themselves. China demonstrated tremendous development performance and had become a developed country despite having a population of thousands of millions.

With economic and military development, China is now a technologically sound and market-controlling power in this world as well. This dramatic development of China put the US in a security dilemma in the world order system and forced them to take steps against China, for instance, arming business with Taiwan, establishing the Quad, building relations with South Korea, etc. Those activities turned that relationship hostile. The United States tried to make China weaker and force them to look for new allies. Tt was not difficult for China to revive its relationship with Russia.

In the unipolar world system, the US took control of the whole world order and made decisions as it saw fit. The United States has unabridged advantages to do that, including control over the IMF and UN, immense military development, technological advancement, and control over the world trade system. When the US proclaimed war against terror by invading Afghanistan and started the war against Iraq, the world community became insecure of having hostility with the US. In the time, Russia got a new president, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, who is a former intelligence officer. He came forward to make Russia 'great again' by slowly developing the economy and reviving its military power.

However, in the US unipolar world order system, it had influence and control over every region of this world, like the Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, the European Union, the Pacific region, etc. But for the last 10 years, that grasp has been weakening. China, becoming a world power, and Russia coming back by expanding their wings over the formal Soviet nations to other allies’ like India, Saudi Arabia, Germany, England, and Australia, are steadily developing. Today, economic development and fiscal security are getting more attention than military development.

The nature of current international politics reveals that the hegemonic world order is emanating to other countries too, whether it be a bipolar or multipolar system. China is gradually developing economically and technologically, and right now it’s the largest economy in the globe. In addition to this, they are increasing their military budget every year, which is 7.2% more than last year. Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic, economic safeguards are becoming more important than armaments. Almost every country, including the United States, is experiencing a financial crisis, with the United States experiencing the highest inflation rate after the Second World War. In this situation, China is getting more priority than the US in world politics because they have a swift financial aid system.

Russia is also not compromising their security dilemma, which they didn’t do since 1991. After a successful mission in Crimea, now Russia is at war with Ukraine. The US allies and the European Union are against Russia, even collectively imposing a series of sanctions, but Russia does not care. On the other hand, Russia is getting help from China and doing business with China, Germany, and India.

In the international games after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it is crystal clear that a very interesting love-hate equation exists between the US, Russia, China and the world community. With the effect of economic sanctions and the unrest of this traditional world order, the price of everything has touched the sky, especially the price of petroleum and fuel, which has increased dramatically after collective sanctions against Russia from the US and EU. India and China have been buying crude oil from Russia while both countries have shared border conflicts for years. Interestingly, EU country Germany is the 2nd largest fuel buyer from Russia after China since 2022.

In February, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s three-day Beijing visit and warm welcome from Chinese authorities indicated more than just bolstering bilateral relations. As a result, the US will face new challenges from China, Russia, and Iran even in the Middle East. Just after one month of this historic visit, Iran and Saudi Arabia are reviving their bilateral relations after 7 years of a totally broken relationship as they agree to keep the contents of the lengthy agreement confidential. Although publicly billed as a bilateral agreement, the deal’s key points reportedly focus on ensuring regional stability in the Gulf and the Middle East more broadly. According to reports, China was the mediator and the agreement was reached in Beijing.

However, the style of international politics has been changing for decades, especially after the Arab Spring and the Orange Movement. But after the COVID-19 pandemic, the pattern showed a swift turn. Almost all countries, including regional players also trying to cover their economic drawbacks, suffered during the pandemic. It’s quite difficult now for superpowers to use their allies in any conflictual issue where China and Russia are taking advantage of this opportunity because the US is also facing economic drawbacks and internal pressure from its citizens regarding economic drawbacks, high inflation, and bankrupting. The president’s visit to China is also triggering a new international security dilemma for the US.

The US will not easily leave their possession of the unipolar international system, and they are also trying to play shoulder to shoulder with the Russia and China. US President Joe Biden’s sudden visit to Ukraine and economic and military aid proclamation showed that the US was trying to sustain the war, and they rejected the 12-point peace plan of China. Even the US is boasting the power of quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad) by organizing a Quad Plus dialogue that includes New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam. As of now, the United States, Australia, Japan, and India account for 33.9% of global GDP. March 2021, quadrilateral joint statement, ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific, also triggering the China-USA international antagonism. Also increasing military equipment and showing power in the South China Sea, continuing arms sales to Taiwan is also showing that the US is trying to put pressure on China by involving them in more internal and regional issues.

The US, China, and Russia are trying to restore and hold power in world politics. China is trying to put pressure on the US by running its international trade and politics simultaneously. Russia is also trying to play head-to-head with the US and EU by securing itself from NATO and its security dilemma. But recent attitudes of regional powers and superpower countries present a new and fresh world order where the US is not the only player and decision maker of the present world order. Now regional powers and other allies are taking their decisions and proceeding very carefully because economic protection and international businesses are getting more attention than strengthening military power.

* Syed Mohammad Arfatur Rahaman is a research associate, WATERWEF project , Department of Anthropology, University of Dhaka