Bracing for Biden - New hope or false dawn

Euphoria

The recently concluded presidential elections in the United States of America has indubitably proved three things to the world - 1) No matter how archaic and convoluted the proceedings of US politics may seem to outsiders, it still rests on granite foundations of efficacious, independent institutions that provide adequate checks and balances 2) Democracy, despite the illusory Trumpian threat, is alive and kicking 3) The Americans know how to put on a show and have near inexhaustible reserves of soft power in order to sell a narrative.

Rarely has an election captivated the attention of the global audience with such thrilling twists and turns (that can be sampled in a whodunit) or provided such a display of incandescent raw emotions (that threatened to turn everyday Third World politics and the occasional violence riddled, legally murky elections in that part of the world into stodgy, stolid affairs).The news of the electoral defeat of the enfant terrible of US politics and the concomitant victory of the folksy veteran caused many around the world to heave a collective sigh of relief and exult amidst gleeful shouts of “Hosanna!”

The well-heeled elite and intelligentsia from the rest of the erstwhile globalized world who drew succor from a supposedly liberal western order, were discomfited by the antics of the Leader of the Free World. Trump’s less than palatable utterances were laced with generous dollops of racism, isolationism and exclusivism. The POTUS pursued borderline populist strongman leadership at home coupled with crass transactional diplomacy abroad. American leadership on the global arena ranged from the comical to downright farcical.

The Agenda

It is hoped that the USA, under Biden, would return to the multilateral fold and shun its “Go it Alone” confrontationist path that has emboldened its rivals and alienated allies. If the proposed cabinet pick of the President Elect is anything to go by (Antony Blinken- Secretary of State, Jake Sullivan- National Security Adviser, Linda Thomas-Greenfield- Ambassador to the United Nations, John Kerry- Climate Envoy, Janet Yellen- Secretary of the Treasury), America is getting ready to resume its proactive primus inter pares leadership on the global arena, on the basis of reviving frayed alliances, consolidating existing coalitions, co-opting new allies, containing the spread of influence of rival power blocs, and constraining their sphere of influence.

There will be a greater thrust on ensuring greater visibility and shoring up old platforms of multilateral engagement including The United Nations, World Trade Organization, World Bank, World Health Organization, North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. This will go hand in hand with the US rejoining the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and renewed focus on championing democracy, promoting the rule of law, fighting corruption, upholding human tights with special emphasis on women, labour and minority rights, reactivating and revitalizing NGOs and civil rights groups around the world, promoting free trade and investment, pursuing financial transparency, cutting down on emission and pollution and facilitating technological innovations. At least, that is what the Biden electoral agenda which promises to deliver-a foreign policy that is reflective of the aspirations of the American Middle Class to successfully compete in a global economy.

Challenges

However, the optimism and confidence surrounding active American re-engagement with the rest of the world is belied by the facts on the ground. A vacuum has been created in the global arena due to the willful ceding of space by Trump. Ground once ceded is hard to repossess. Leadership, once abdicated, is hard to win back. A group of countries, ranging from rivals to regional competitors to erstwhile partners to jilted allies have stepped into provide alternative leadership. Ironically, they have used the multilateral edifice and business models, which had been painstakingly built over the span of several decades, by the heirs of the Founding Fathers.

The success or failure of Biden’s foreign policy objectives is predicated on the relative strength and weakness of its allies and adversaries. Some of the There are quite a few are briefly outlined.

The Dragon in the Room

Despite being singled out as prime strategic competitor and subjected to a bruising Trade War and blamed for the spread of the COVID 19 pandemic, China has transitioned from being a latent to a very potent adversary under Trump’s watch. A deft combination of policies ranging from geo-economic integration such as the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), value addition and technological innovation as evident in Made in China 2025 Policy, ushering in the biggest trading bloc in the structural form of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), championing Huawei in the 5G Technology battle, visualizing a digital version of the Yuan-Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) to undermine the stranglehold of the American Dollar, and vaccine diplomacy outreach and post pandemic economic resilience. Not to mention the obvious, China has strategically positioned itself as an inextricable and invaluable clog in the global supply chain. Decoupling from a Sino-centric supply chain is prohibitively expensive for the Americans or any likeminded nation.

Add to this, the more bellicose posturing in South China Sea and the intermittent border conflict with India and the emphasis on building a blue-water navy capable of global-reach power projection. Even the Free and Open Indo-Pacific' (FOIP) Strategy advocated with varying degrees of enthusiasm by American diplomats in a bid to build a coalition amongst primarily the Quad members (USA, Australia, Japan and India) to counteract Chinese ambitions was deemed to be nebulous and lacking in depth and direction.

What is increasingly galling to the American policy planners is the way the Chinese have gone about in repackaging existing US ideas and proposals and successfully marketing them around the world. Case in point, BRI itself draws inspiration from “The New Silk Road” an initiative floated in 2011 by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to economically integrate Central Asia and Afghanistan and use it as a transit hub to connect Europe to South Asia via Regional Energy Markets, Trade and Transport, Customs and Border Operations, Businesses and People-to-People contacts. Whereas, the American proposal never got off the drawing board, the Chinese one did only two years later, with much fanfare and more importantly, at least one trillion dollars in the kitty and 125 member nations.

The Chinese have mastered the art of geo-economic statecraft in expanding its sphere of influence near and increasingly far. The recent incident of tariffs targeted at Australian produce in the Chinese market is a not so subtle reminder. There is a price to be paid for vehemently opposing and criticizing the Middle Kingdom, especially if your economy is increasingly dependent on the Chinese for trade, investment and economic growth.

China is deeply wary about the intentions of the West. It knows that while a change in the Oval Office may offer a temporary reprieve from the ongoing trade war, there is bipartisan consensus amongst the Democrat and Republican legislators, regarding the serious risk posed by the rise of China to America’s pole position, in the global pecking order in the not so distant future. Criticism regarding potential debt trap issues arising from BRI or allegations of willful suppression of COVID 19 outbreak or accusations of human rights abuse in Xinjiang, Tibet or Hong Kong or security implications surrounding Chinese tech firms are seen as veiled attempts by the West to paint China as an unreliable, irresponsible emerging great power. The Chinese mandarins themselves call out the Americans for their supposed double standards and hypocrisy. A never ending vicious cycle of mutual recriminations and finger pointing seems to have set in between the West and the Middle Kingdom. The Chinese, by selectively mixing salient features of the West and the East, are on the verge of creating an alternative global order-whether the attempt will be successful or not is too early to tell at the moment as there are far too many unknown unknowns to account for.

The Bear in the Attic

Quietly slipping below the radar, the other strategic competitor of the ailing hegemon, Putin’s Russia, has managed to nurse back its economy (to a certain extent), and formidable military prowess (to a large extent), by working in tandem with China. Putin, has also revitalized the once vaunted science and tech sector and is leading the pack in cyber security innovations. An extremely effective military intervention in Syria (in conjunction with Iran) to shore up Bashar al-Assad’s tottering regime, indirect support for Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar and well-timed strategic neutrality and arbitration in the Armenia-Azerbaijanis conflict shows that the Russian Revival has begun in earnest after the spectacular implosion of Soviet Union only three decades back.

The Russians have not forgotten the economic devastation and political weakness visited upon them after the end of the Cold War, under the guise of Western-sponsored economic reform nor the ignominy of a comical caricature of the perennially drunk Boris Yeltsin as a leader. They also point out to the selective amnesia of the Western intelligentsia and media regarding the immense loss in life and material suffered by Russia during “The Great Patriotic War” where they inflicted a mortal blow on Hitler’s nearly unstoppable Nazi war machine. They argue, with some justification, that the West, despite being shaped and influenced by Russia for over three centuries, still has not made genuine overtures to integrate Russia within their framework. The image of a hostile Russia would serve the Bidenian imperative well as it will refurbish the frayed rationale of NATO and keep EU more or less on America’s side for the foreseeable future.

Regional Rivals

In terms of the lesser opponents, Iran had managed to wither, by the skin of its teeth, the economic hardship engendered by American sanctions, Israeli animosity, Gulf Arab opposition (excluding Qatar) and the odd targeted assassination attempts of its leading security and scientific personnel and remain a potent force to reckon with in the Middle East. However, the frail health of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and issues of succession may create complications in the future. Factor in the growing disenchantment and disconnect of a large segment of the youthful population in the country, the establishment in Iran may welcome resumption of diplomatic talks with the incoming American administration, in a bid to ease the onerous burden of international sanctions. This is again subject to the degree of opposition or conversely, endorsement of staunch American allies, foremost of them Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE

Nuclear armed North Korea, under the Kim dynasty, remains well, for want of a better word, North Korea – predictably unpredictable. In between oscillating from threats of unleashing Nuclear Armageddon to sending soft feelers of reconciliation to staving off an implosion from within, the hermit kingdom continues to confound friends and foes alike.

Venezuela, under Nicolas Maduro, seems most likely to succumb under the weight of a tanking economy, hyperinflation and low international oil prices, pandemic shattered health sector and the presence of a strong pro west leaning opposition, which enjoys popular support. To make matters worse, Maduro does not possess the charisma or X Factor of his larger than life predecessor, Hugo Chavez.

The Strong Man upon the Bosporus

Turkey occupies pride of place within the rank of allies, who have more often than not, clashed with the Americans as they pursue a more independent policy across and beyond the region. Whether it is pursuing greater military cooperation with Russia (acquiring S-400 air defense systems or the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant) or targeting the US backed YPG in Syria or taking on Greece, Cyprus and, Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean for the right of developing energy resources, Turkey under President Erdoğan has adopted a more muscular policy. From military interventions in Syria to providing covert assistance to the UN recognized government in Libya to giving generous substantial military arsenal support to Azerbaijan in its victorious war with Armenia or even opposing Russia from time to time, Turkey has emerged as a regional power of considerable might. It no longer looks to be embraced by the EU (which is paralysed by the fear of a refugee exodus from Syria) as it acquires greater confidence in its inherent potential and acts accordingly. Neo-Ottomanism is no longer an illusory concept. Biden led USA needs Turkey as a core member of NATO to act as a bulwark against Russia. Hence, they may downplay their support for Kurdish groups, if they do not want to antagonise Turkish sensibilities.

Probable Way Forward

Allies like Australia, Japan, India, Canada, and United Kingdom and to a lesser extent Germany and France will welcome the multilateralism of the Biden administration. They would want renewed display of willingness from the Americans to provide leadership to a coalition of strategically aligned partners to collectively solve the complex problems facing the world. Taking on a more active role in combating the pandemic by partnering with multilateral organizations (like WHO) and allied countries and engaging extensively in vaccine diplomacy through its massive pharmaceutical giants would be a logical first step. This would not only partially restore the US image as a responsible international power, but would serve to blunt burgeoning Chinese soft power. American companies, buoyed on by federal backing would aggressively compete in the renewable energy market worldwide. Expect the Americans to avoid headlong collisions with the Chinese leadership. Rather, it may be a more elliptical approach, focusing on issues such as human rights, democracy, minority rights, pollution and environmental degradation in China and other countries which boast of substantial BRI related investment. However, as often in realpolitik, the application of these sanctions would be selective, as many American allies themselves have patchy record on human rights, status of minority or democracy. There may be a detailed targeting of offshore tax havens in order to make it difficult to circumvent US financial sanctions. Indo-Pacific Strategy is the new craze with countries such as Germany, France and even Canada vying to roll out their versions. These may be synchronised under a common framework, devised by the USA. Existing initiatives like the Blue Dot Network and the BUILD Act could be used to lend greater heft to US geo-economic strategies.

Engaging, competing, constraining China seems to be the mantra of the Biden team. Challenging would be to woo many smaller states, who are intent on pursuing a policy of Strategic Equiproximity and do not want to be caught in a proxy warfare between USA and China. Besides, realistically speaking, the domestic challenges in America are formidable and with the extant level of acrimonious political polarization, Biden would have to spend more time and energy on local issues. There is also the need to reassure allies that the foreign policy direction would be more consistent and not subject to momentous changes stemming from the caprice or vanity of the new occupant of the White House, USA, under Biden has a long winding road to travel, if it wants to recreate the halcyon days of unchallenged US leadership during the Clinton era. The best that they can hope for is to recreate the Obama years. Restoring credibility, respectability and predictability in the way America chooses to reach out to the rest of the world, would be a good place to start as any.

Parvez Karim Abbasi is a geo-economics and geo-politics specialist, with an avid interest in history. He is currently Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. He can be reached at [email protected]