Sudan: A lost cause?

While browsing through internet on the eve of 15 April, I saw a video from Al Jazeera with the title ‘Gunfire eruptions in Sudan’. At first I didn't pay the title much heed, thinking it to be a trivial shooting incident from some random criminal in the street. Few hours later, however, I saw another video with the title ‘Clashes and heavy fighting reported in Khartoum’.

Khartoum is the capital of Sudan which is why I immediately got triggered. Having kept a very close eye on the daily news and updates of the Russia-Ukraine war and other geopolitical matters, this obviously heightened my interest. My knowledge on African countries prior to this was relatively poor even though Africa remains a key interest for the current global superpowers - America, China and Russia.

As the days dragged on, so did the violence in Sudan. Later, from various reports and articles, I came to understand that this is no ordinary street fight but a power struggle between two Sudanese generals - General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemdti’ Dagalo.

General Burhan is the current president of Sudan and the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces while his nemesis General Dagalo is the head of the paramilitary of the country known as ‘Rapid Support Forces (RSF)’. At present, there is a war going on between the Sudanese Army and RSF, following disputes between the two generals on issues regarding their conflicting views on running the country.

The conflict in Sudan started basically after the country’s dictator Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in 2019. After Bashir was ousted from power, the two generals - Burhan and Dagalo who actually orchestrated this coup - filled the resulting vacuum. Bashir had ruled Sudan for nearly three decades. During the last years of his presidency, growing unrest was perpetuated among the civilian population.

The country was already under overwhelming sanctions by the United States, due to accusations regarding Bashir’s several violations of human rights. Chief among such violations is the ‘Darfur genocide’. Darfur is a region west of Sudan which rose in rebellion against Bashir’s administration from 2003. With Sudan being a divided country with Arab and non-Arab factions, many of the non-Arabs happened to dwell in the Western region of Dafur - which is a considerable chunk of land in proportion to the size of the country.

With the Arabs being in power, there were several allegations against the government for practicing apartheid against the black skinned non-Arabs, as well as discrimination of various other sorts. This led to several rebel factions forming in Darfur against the Sudan’s Arab regime and these groups began arms insurgency in 2003. During the successive years that followed, the Sudanese leader Bashir ordered mass killings of the people in Darfur in order to root out the insurgents, and the generals - Dagalo and Burhan - were a significant part of such operations.

As a result of the overwhelming sanctions placed upon the country for performing such barbaric acts, Sudan’s economy became crippled and the discontent within people for the government grew. Finally, in 2019, the Bashir administration was taken down in a coup d'état by the military under the joint leadership of the generals Burhan and Dagalo who themselves dubbed this as a ‘revolution’. They then appeared to establish a joint civilian-military government, as per the demands of the Sudanese people for democratic reforms over a large number of years.

However, all hopes blew out like a candle flame when Burhan and Dagalo revealed they had no intention of sharing of power with the civilian administration and instead ensured a full military regime. Therein, a second coup followed in 2021, when the part civilian government was driven off and full military leadership established via Burhan and Dagalo.

Burhan and Dagalo finally managed to get what they wanted all along - to share the power between themselves. Yet, as time went on, the two generals appeared to be disagreeing over various issues, mainly about how to run the country.

In addition, Dagalo’s Rapid Supporting Forces (RSF) was becoming very popular as the days went on and member countries of the Arab League approved the paramilitary’s past involvement alongside the Saudi Forces in the Yemeni Civil War against the Houthis. General Burhan wanted RSF to be integrated with the Sudanese Armed Forces (something that Bashir previously wanted too) but Dagalo desired RSF have its unique identity.

This ultimately proved to be the fatal blow to the two generals’ relationship. Dagalo - a very popular leader - did not want to hand out RSF to Burhan (because integrating with the military would exactly lead to that) and wanted full authority over the paramilitary. He certainly did not have any intention to be Burhan’s subordinate. This ultimately resulted in the war that is happening in Sudan right now.

This war has killed around six hundred people and injured thousands so far. Tens of thousands of Sudanese have fled the country and the UN fears a high refugee crisis in neighboring nations like Egypt and Chad. There is inadequate food medical facilities in the capital, with electricity cut off from many hospitals in addition to a lack of sanitation. Overall, it is a humanitarian crisis. However, this mass suffering of their people does not seem to stop either of the generals from escalating further bloodshed.

The three superpowers - America, China and Russia - are all eyeing this conflict with acute interest. China loans to a lot of African countries - Sudan among them- and has much investment. China has initialised many development projects in African countries, like railroad development projects, solar energy production systems, windmills and more. In this way, China wants to assert its own influence in Africa.

For America, the gold and uranium are major sources of attraction. The US spends a lot on its nuclear energy programmes so obviously a region rich in uranium will be an eye catcher. Moreover, installing pro-Western regimes in various nations has been a part of American foreign policy and African countries are no exception.

Russia is actively playing a part in the ongoing Sudan conflict. Its paramilitary group - Wagner - is supporting the RSF against Burhan’s administration. Wagner has also supported the Libyan National Army (LNA) in the second Libyan Civil War and right now, the LNA controls the bigger portion of land in Libya. All in all, it is pretty evident that Russia has ambitions in Africa.

Under the current circumstances, many countries are worried about the safety of their embassy people in Sudan and have expressed urgent need to evacuate them. The US has even deployed a good number of its troops close to Sudan in a base in East Africa. The purpose of these troops - as they claim - is to perform an urgent evacuation of its embassy people if need be. The UN has urgently called for a complete end to the violence, to no avail. Many in the international community fear the war might even spread to other countries in Africa.

Reality and reminders

Since its independence from British clutches in 1956, the political crisis in Sudan has been an endless succession of coups, counter-coups, rebellions, violent protests, dissent, civil wars and mass killings. There have hardly been any genuine attempts to form social and democratic reforms within the country.

The stark reality of Sudan should serve as a harsh reminder to any authoritarian regime about the long-term consequences of exploitation and abuse of power. Dictators may die or be ousted one day but what they leave behind for their successors is a bloody mess -- a mess that ultimately creates an environment of chaos.

* Chowdhury Taoheed Al Rabbi is a student of Bangladesh University Of Professionals (BUP)