Eminent microbiologist Samir Kumar Saha is a professor and head of the microbiology department of Bangladesh Institute of Child Health. He is also the executive director of Child Health Research Foundation. He spoke to Prothom Alo on the recent rise in the infection rate of coronavirus and its possible causes and public awareness. The interview was taken by AKM Zakaria.
The infection rate of coronavirus is increasing again. What are the reasons behind this? Is it due to the negligence or our reluctance in maintaining health guidelines?
We are seeing that the infection rate is on the rise again and it is increasing every day. It can be assessed from the last few days’ statistics. Now the question is why the infection rate is growing anew? There can be many reasons for this. Probably the biggest reason is that we have become careless. There have been talks about the new strains of coronavirus, especially the one found in the UK. That strain was found in Bangladesh a few days back. It is not clear whether the recent rise in the rate of coronavirus infection is due to this new strain of coronavirus. You can see that nobody is maintaining the health guidelines now-a-days. Although many are wearing masks, they are not wearing it properly. And nobody is caring about maintaining social distance at all. It is also a burning question how much importance is being given on washing hands. As the pandemic is not over in the country, it is quite natural that the infection rate will increase if health guidelines are neglected.
The new strain of coronavirus has been detected in Bangladesh too. We have heard that this new strain of coronavirus is even more contagious…
We have heard different things from different places of the world. We have heard about the types of coronavirus in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. It is quite natural that this new type of coronavirus has been found in our country since we have air connectivity with the UK. The new type of coronavirus of the UK is highly infectious. However, it cannot be said that this new type of coronavirus is working in the same way in Bangladesh too. There has been no such example from which we may say the rate of infection is rising because of the new strain of coronavirus. Actually our country has some unique aspects. Our food habit and the lifestyle of most of the people in the country could be a reason behind this. We still remember that the garment factories were repeatedly closed and opened when the coronavirus situation began to spread in the country. There were speculations about a massive rise in infection because of the movements of the garments workers. However, that did not happen. The situation would be worse in the advanced country if such were the circumstances there. We have also observed that the infection rate and casualty is higher among the relatively affluent people than the common people in the rural areas in our society.
Do you mean our people have strong immunity?
That could be. Coronavirus was already in our country. The problem lies with the novel coronavirus. If we look at our lifestyle, we will see that we have grown up by swimming in the ponds which were not so clean. We played in muds and sands. As a result we have been surviving by fighting with various types of viruses. But our next generation, who were born outside the country, usually come to the country for a week and fall ill. It can be said that our environmental conditions are giving us some sort of protection.
Is it possible to detect this new strain of coronavirus with the same kits we are using now?
The kits we use in our country target two genes. There are some kits which target three genes. If any gene is absent, then the new type is detected through gene sequencing. So the existence of the new type of coronavirus can be detected by the kits we are using and gene sequencing is needed to ensure this. However, there is almost no chance of failure in detecting novel coronavirus.
What will happen if more new types of coronavirus spread in the country?
It is difficult to predict the future in advance. We are now aware of the African and Brazilian strain. We have also succeeded in detecting the new strain of the UK.
The vaccination programme has started in the country. Is it possible to determine the efficacy of the vaccine on the new strain?
The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is effective on the current type of coronavirus in Bangladesh. It is also effective on the new strains found in the UK. It is because the same vaccine is being used in the UK. We also know that this vaccine is not effective on the South African strain. It is difficult for us to use other vaccines for some financial and technical reasons. Till now, we are on the right track.
Bangladesh has not had enough detection tests compared to the population of the country. So it is difficult to assess the actual number of infections. Although not proven by data, many experts have unofficially told us that a large part of the population in the country has already been infected. How far is Bangladesh from creating herd immunity in this situation?
We really do not know the actual number of the infected people. The number of tests has been low. Besides, many have not felt the need to test due to lack of symptoms. I can talk about our office where we have around 70 employees. At first, we tested all the employees after one or two were infected by coronavirus. For those who were not infected in the beginning, we conducted tests on them every week. We have seen that 90 per cent of the infected persons did not have any symptoms. So a large community might have been infected. Since we do not know the actual number of the infected people, it is difficult to predict when we will attain herd immunity.
The vaccine that is being given in Bangladesh needs to be administered in two doses. Can we say someone safe from coronavirus after the completion of the two doses?
Actually it is hard to say something specific in this way. After the vaccination, two to three years’ observation is needed to declare the vaccine safe and effective. By then, we will also be able to know how long the antibody will work. According to the experience of the countries where the vaccination programme had started before our country, the antibody is still active in the people who had taken the vaccine six months ago. So far it is known that this antibody works well if there is a two-month gap between the two doses. After the two doses of vaccination, we have to monitor and we have to consider the data of the foreign countries. Only after this we will be able to decide.
Probably some sort of pandemic fatigue has grasped the people. It seems that no one wants to accept the coronavirus situation. How dangerous is it? As an expert what do you suggest?
If fatigue grasps us, it is very dangerous. We have to sacrifice for a few more days. We have to be strict in maintaining health guidelines which are still in effect in the European countries. The vaccination programme and lockdown is going on simultaneously there. Vaccination protects a person from the virus. At the same time, if the lockdown or health guidelines are strictly followed, the virus will not spread. In our country many are thinking the danger is over after taking the first dose of coronavirus. They are going to public gatherings and not following the health guideline. We are seeing that our meetings are no longer being held virtually. We have to be very cautious in the time between the two doses of vaccination. If we do not maintain that and get infected with coronavirus after the first dose, it will affect the vaccination programme. If the infection rate rises amid the vaccination programme, it may convey a wrong message to the people of the country. My appeal to the people is to follow the health guidelines strictly at least for two to three more months.
Thank you.
Thank you too.
*This interview appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ashish Basu