Exclusive Interview: ANM Muniruzzaman

We are going through a critical period in terms of internal security

ANM Muniruzzaman is a security analyst. He is the President of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) and the Chair of the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC). With the national election approaching, he spoke to Prothom Alo about the law-and-order situation, security risks, post-election security challenges, reforms in the security sector, and the role of the armed forces in the election. The interview was conducted by Monoj Dey.

Prothom Alo :

We are seeing a series of target killings in Dhaka and Chattogram. Videos of these murders are spreading on social media, creating widespread fear. Why have these criminals become so reckless, and why are the law-enforcement agencies failing to stop them?

ANM Muniruzzaman: Recently, we have noticed a number of law-and-order-related incidents in Dhaka, Chattogram, and other parts of the country. In Bangladesh, such violence is usually seen in the period leading up to elections. However, this time the trend seems more intense than before. One major reason is that the efficiency and operational capacity of the police have declined significantly. After the July 2024 uprising, the police force had practically collapsed. Since then, various efforts have been made to reorganise it. Unfortunately, even after nearly a year and a half, the interim government has not been able to fully rebuild the police force. I believe the government has had enough time to restore the police to at least close to their previous level of efficiency, but they have failed to do so. Taking advantage of this, criminal elements are becoming increasingly reckless.

Moreover, there is also a political dimension to the current situation. In various regions, we are seeing clashes among activists of different political parties, as well as intra-party conflicts that have resulted in loss of lives. Political leaders must be vigilant. They must take measures to ensure that their activists do not become involved in such conflicts.

Prothom Alo :

Around 5 August 2024, several prisons across the country were broken into and inmates escaped. Many of them were top terrorists and militants, and a significant number have still not been arrested. Many of the weapons stolen at that time also remain unrecovered. How much has this situation increased Bangladesh’s internal security risks?

We have consistently said that such events have made Bangladesh’s security situation even more fragile. A substantial number of weapons looted from the armouries of the police and other government agencies have still not been fully recovered—around 30 per cent of them have not returned to government custody. At the same time, several inmates involved in terrorist activities escaped from various prisons, and not all of them have been recaptured. In addition, after the fire at the airport cargo village, weapons stored in the vault were stolen. These incidents have further weakened and destabilised our law-and-order system. Yet, the seriousness required for recovering illegal weapons and taking action against terrorists is clearly lacking. Recently, a terrorist attack occurred in Delhi, India. This underscores the need for us to maintain vigilant attention to terrorist activities.

Prothom Alo :

Less than three months remain before the national parliamentary election. On one hand, the law-and-order situation is fragile; on the other, we are witnessing violence such as crude bomb explosions and arson attacks on buses surrounding the programmes of the Awami League, whose activities are currently banned. What do you see as the main law-and-order challenges ahead of the election?

ANM Muniruzzaman: Bangladesh always goes through a somewhat fragile situation in the pre-election period. However, this time, the situation is more complex. We are moving through a post-mass-uprising context. It can be said that, politically and in terms of internal security, we are passing through a critical juncture. In such circumstances, security challenges will naturally be multifaceted.

The unfortunate part is that the government appears weak in understanding these challenges. If this weakness persists, the law-and-order situation across the country may deteriorate further in the coming days. Murders, target killings, and terrorist activities may increase. Sabotage, such as crude bomb attacks and arson on buses by the Awami League, may escalate. Overall, the primary objective of these groups will be to create fear among the public.

Therefore, to create a proper electoral environment, the government must closely monitor the law-and-order situation. The government must also remember that if law and order do not improve, and if people cannot trust the environment, many may refrain from voting. Women and minority voters, in particular, may feel discouraged. This would be highly undesirable.

Prothom Alo :

Given the competing interests of regional and global powers, do you see any security risks surrounding the election?

ANM Muniruzzaman: In a post-revolution society, certain kinds of divisions typically emerge, and Bangladesh has experienced similar fractures. If these divisions cannot be contained within a limited scope, then regional and global powers—who often wait for opportunities to exploit unstable situations—may attempt to advance their own interests. Even if not directly, they may become indirectly involved and use the internal divisions to pit one side against another. This could potentially lead to the spread of a proxy conflict. If something like that happens, it would be catastrophic for us.

Prothom Alo :

You are expressing concern about a possible proxy conflict. Could you explain this in more detail?

A N M Muniruzzaman: We must pay particular attention to the fact that our situation is not very different from other countries that have gone through similar periods. Our analysis shows many similarities. In several countries, we have seen that a small issue or division eventually triggered a civil war. In those civil wars, internal groups were often used as proxies by different external powers.

Therefore, we must learn from those examples. Under no circumstances should our divisions create conditions that allow external forces to step in and ignite a proxy conflict. In such a fragile situation, the line between stability and instability becomes extremely thin. Once that line is crossed and instability sets in, returning to normalcy becomes very difficult—as we have seen in various regions of the world where civil wars have broken out.

Prothom Alo :

Currently, the main concern for citizens is the law-and-order situation. The army has been deployed in the field with magisterial powers. Even so, why has there been no visible improvement in law and order?

ANM Muniruzzaman: The decline in police efficiency created a gap, which the army has been trying to fill. Military personnel are deployed in various parts of the country, and they are performing well. It can be said that it is largely due to their contribution that the law-and-order situation did not completely spiral out of control. However, no other force can fully replace the scope and functions of the police. These forces can only play a supportive role. The police must return to their previous position—there is no alternative.

Prothom Alo :

Not only during Hasina’s tenure, but previous governments have also used military and state intelligence agencies such as DGFI, NSI, and DB for party interests. Under Hasina, they were involved in enforced disappearances and secret detention centres to suppress dissent. Several current and former military officers are now facing trial at the International Crimes Tribunal over disappearances. How do you view these trials?

ANM Muniruzzaman: The Hasina government used these agencies from a very narrow, partisan perspective, which led many members to become directly involved in illegal activities. The responsibility for these illegal actions does not fall entirely on the agencies themselves. Individuals lacked the necessary sense of judgment and, in many cases, acted out of personal interest. Several individuals have been brought under the law on the government’s orders, and the military has taken them into custody as directed by the government.

It is important to remember that the country’s existing laws are supreme. Actions that do not fall under military law must be dealt with under general law.

Prothom Alo :

What kind of reforms do you think are needed to ensure such agencies are not used for political purposes in the future?

ANM Muniruzzaman: These agencies need comprehensive internal reforms to prevent such actions from recurring. So far, the current government has paid no attention to this. A commission was formed solely to reform the police, but it has yet to produce any tangible results. The police do not work in isolation within the security sector. Armed forces, intelligence agencies, and paramilitary organisations all operate together.

There are clear, scientific methods for reforming these forces and agencies. In Bangladesh’s context, detailed discussions are needed to determine which steps should be taken. Above all, democratic oversight of the agencies must be paramount. In other words, civilian democratic control over security institutions must be fully enforced.

Regarding the upcoming national elections, the parliamentary committees that will operate in the new parliament must be capable of functioning independently. In some cases, new parliamentary committees need to be established. For example, there is currently no parliamentary committee in Bangladesh to oversee intelligence agencies. Such committees are necessary. Additionally, measures to ensure transparency and accountability in these agencies are essential. In many countries, white papers are published annually. A close relationship with the media must be established so journalists can report on the agencies’ activities. These practices are standard in democratic countries and need to be implemented in Bangladesh as well.

Prothom Alo :

What do you think is the way to move away from political loyalty and considerations when appointing top positions in the armed forces and intelligence agencies?

ANM Muniruzzaman: Any irregularities in appointments must be stopped, and the primary responsibility for this lies with political leaders. There must be clear written laws and policies regarding recruitment and promotions in the various forces and agencies. Appointments and promotions should be based strictly on these guidelines. Whenever political influence affects appointments, problems inevitably arise. Loyalty is necessary, but it must be professional and institutional, not personal. Unfortunately, we have seen that appointments to these positions often depended on personal loyalty, which led many in responsibility to fail to maintain professional standards.

Prothom Alo :

The Chief Adviser has requested cooperation from the army and police to ensure peaceful elections. Given the current capacity of the police, concerns about public safety remain. In this context, what role should the army play in creating a fair electoral environment?

ANM Muniruzzaman: The army has always been involved in elections and has played a significant role, but this time, the responsibility on the army is even greater. They are entrusted with a crucial duty. The army has already announced that it will deploy more than 100,000 troops during the election. In terms of numbers, this is substantial. The armed forces expect that, before, during, and after the elections, they will be able to address the gaps in law and order on the ground. The military is committed to ensuring a fair electoral environment, and we all hope they will be able to fulfill this critical responsibility.

Prothom Alo :

Bangladesh’s experience shows that post-election violence is also a major concern. What measures do you think the government should take in advance?

ANM Muniruzzaman: The post-election period in Bangladesh is often even more fragile. As I mentioned earlier, Bangladesh is in a post-revolutionary situation, making the current context more complex than at any previous time. Therefore, the post-election period could present an even greater challenge. We need to pay attention to this now.

A proper electoral atmosphere has already begun to form in the country. I hope the Election Commission will announce the schedule soon. Given the current reality, the interim government effectively acts as a caretaker government during the election. If the government can conduct the election neutrally and fairly, its credibility will be fully maintained. However, if irregularities or disruptions occur, the losing party may use them as a pretext to reject the election. The government’s neutrality must be visible so that people can trust that it is entirely impartial. The Election Commission must be fully supported in conducting the election.

The government should now commit, and political parties should declare, that no one in the interim government’s advisory council or at equivalent levels will participate in the next government. Allowing anything otherwise could create an atmosphere of distrust among political parties, which must be avoided at all costs.

Prothom Alo: Thank you.

ANM Muniruzzaman: Thank you as well