How realistic is a New World Order under China?

Two weeks ago the grand palace in Moscow where the Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Chinese president Xi Jinping, is officially called Bolshoi Dvorets, and in English, Grand Kremlin Palace. Xi came forward from one end of the beautiful hall and Putin from the other. Both have long been in power and both very recently had laws passed by their loyal legislative assemblies to make them life presidents.

The International Criminal Court has levelled war crime charges against one of them. The other one is accused of violating the human rights of the Uighur Muslims and other minorities in their country. The international human rights organisation Human Rights Watch has compared this to genocide.

Shaking hands with President Putin, President Xi smiled and said 'zhiji' means 'dear friend'. In reply, Putin said 'dorogoy drug' means 'dear friend'. Before the visit, Xi had said he was taking a peace proposal to halt the war in Ukraine. Some many have thought that he would remain neutral in the war and play the role of a mediator, but that was not to be. From the very first 'hello', President Xi made his stand clear.

China is now the second superpower in the world. It is forging ahead rapidly not only economic terms, but militarily too. Its technological advancements are unimaginable. This China now wants to sidestep the world order build up after World War II under American leadership, and establish an alternative global order. Rather than alone, it wants Russia by its side in this endeavour. The two countries, in the meantime, have declared their 'never-ending friendship'. China wants to use this friendship to build up a New World Order.

Russia-China relations have been through a fair share of ups and downs over the past 70 years. The friendship which began with the Chinese Revolution in 1949, changed into enmity with the death of the Soviet dictator Stalin. In 1969 a border war broke out between the two nations. After the fall of the Soviet Union in the nineties, relations between the two countries changed again. Over the next two decades, the two countries gradually became strategic allies. They both  have common foes -- the US and the western military alliance. In this new alliance, China is the leader, and Russia the 'junior partner'.

Russian's dependence on China has increased since the Ukraine war. In the face of western sanctions, it has to rely on China to sell its oil and gas. China stands to gain more. It is getting oil cheap. Also, Russia has agreed to sell its oil in renminbi instead  of dollars or rubles, giving a boost to China's efforts to make its currency an alternative to the dollar.

China has benefitted too by getting a long term commitment for oil and gas supply. The leaders of these two countries in Moscow, agreed to construct a new gas pipeline of around 1500 miles from Siberia to the Chinese border. As a result, it will be possible to export a minimum 50 billion cubic metres of gas.

Russia is not only interested in selling oil and gas, but also wants to procure arms from China. China is not too eager about supply arms. Its economy is in closely linked, even dependent to a large degree, with Europe and  America. If it faces sanctions for selling arms to Russia at this juncture, it may stand to lose in many ways. In such circumstances, Xi did not make any commitment to supply arms to Moscow.

President Xi did not go to Moscow merely in search of oil and gas. His aims are far deeper. He wants to present himself and his country as an 'alternative' superpower against the US. As China grows in economic and military strength, its competition with the US steadily grows stronger. Washington very openly, diplomatic terms, considers Beijing as its competitor.

The Biden administration has said it is China, not Russia or Islamic militancy, which is the main threat to their national security. Around a month ago, a top American general even went as far as to say that within two or three years, a war between China and the US is inevitable over Taiwan.

China is fully aware of the scenario. It is fully aware that just as the US did not allow Russia to arise, it will do the same with China. Keeping that in mind, it is building up its own sphere of influence, aiming to consolidate its military presence, its maritime presence in particular, in Southeast Asia. It also wants to keep Taiwan in its fold. This effort has not escaped the US' eye and as a counter move it has stepped up its military strength and alliances in the region. It has created a new military alliance along with Japan, Australia and India. In recent times, it has drawn UK into its ambit too.

In searching for allies in face of this competition, China has reached out to Russia. Russia maybe nowhere near the US or China economically, but it is no less formidable than anyone else as a nuclear power. If it can also get countries Brazil, North Korea, South Africa and Iran by its side, then it will not be impossible for China to establish the 'alternative' world order.

In the meantime, China trumped the US last  month by mediating between two sworn enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia, and reestablishing diplomatic ties between the two countries. Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia had remained severed since 2016, centering the Yemen civil war. Iran backed the Shia houthis in the war, while Saudi backed the Yemeni sunnis. This bloody competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia was damaging for both the countries and both want an end to the situation.

So long it had been the US who had the monopoly of manipulating things in the Middle East, but things are changing now. Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman does not trust the US, the Biden administration in particular, at all. And Iran had an old enmity with the US and the two countries have no official diplomatic ties. So it is impossible for the US to adopt the role of a mediator in stopping the Yemen war. China has come forward to fill that diplomatic vacuum. It was through China's diplomacy that Iran and Saudi Arabia has agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties with each other.

China wants to see itself as a big player not just in the Middle East, but all over the world. It wants Moscow by its side too in this new project, but as a 'junior partner'. Back in the day, China and the US had joined hands to isolate Russia in the backdrop of Bangladesh's liberation war. Now China and Russia are joining hands against the US and western military alliance. In the Soviet days, China had been a weak and incapable neighbour and Moscow could dominate and suppress it.

Things have changed. Now China will call the shots and Moscow will carry out the order without a murmur. This was very evident in Putin's subdued looks in front of Xi.

The famous Russian analyst Alexander Gabuev of the US research organisation Carnegie Endowment, writes about this change of guards in history that while it is true that China was Russia's little brother at one time, now it is the big brother. As the second superpower in the world, its global influence was much more compared to Russia. Also, in a fix with the Ukraine war, Russia has no other alternative but to accept China's leadership.

Alexander Gabuev says that Russia's dependence on China will increase in the coming years. China will be Russia's main market for its oil and gas. Russian consumers too will become dependent on Chinese commodities. With Russia agreeing to trade in Chinese currency, the renminbi will gain more acceptance as a regional and international currency. More importantly, this Russia-China alliance will become an effective weapon for Beijing in its competition with Washington.

Gabuev feels that Putin is now in Xi's pocket. Xi wants Putin to remain in power so as to maintain Russia's subservience. It will be a headache for China if he is removed and replaced by a pro-western element.

The Global Security Initiative is interested in establishing itself as an alternative to the US-controlled global order and this is evident in the Global Security Initiative. Xi Jinping first makes mention of this initiative in a speech delivered in April last year.  In the speech he proposed that all countries live together in harmony because "we are all indeed passengers in the same boat, we all want security." The 'white paper' published on 21 February this year by Beijing to explain this initiative in detail,  made it clear that China wanted a change to the prevailing hegemonic, unilateral and protectionist global order of the West.

The picture of how this change will come about is not very clear, but it is clear from the words of Chinese leaders that they want national sovereignty, rather than western interventionist politics, to be at the centre point of international relations. China wants an end to US' repeated castigations regarding human rights and imposition of sanctions. The source of this proposal is probably the 17th century Westphalian model which has the principle of inviolable sovereignty at heart. But China has not condemned the manner in which Russia is violating the sovereignty of its neighbour, and so it is obvious these proposals are not unconditional.

Certain American experts term this initiative as an autocrat's manifesto. Michael Schuman of the Atlantic journal writes that the objective of this new order is to ensure that the autocrats of the world can enjoy their power in peace. The US secretary of state Antony Blinken said that what China actually wants is to destroy the rule-based order that has been there for the last 75 years and establish an order where authoritarian rules like China will be considered legitimate.

It is no secret that China does not consider the prevailing western-style multilateral democratic system as the only legitimate system. President Biden did not invite either China or Russia to his Democracy Summit. In response, China remarked, who said that the US calls democracy is the only democracy model? No matter how democracy is, what matters is whether it gives results. China claims its democratic model certainly yields results.

Therein lies the fear. China is an authoritarian state system where it is not just a one-party rule. Constitutionally, the head of state there can remain in power till death. It is clear from the stance of the Chinese leadership on persecution of the Uighurs and on the Covid pandemic, that no form of criticism of the ruling party or the government is acceptable. In this 21st century can we accept that such an authoritarian system is the best system in place?

Undoubtedly, people have their reservations about the US. If China manages to sidestep the US and form an alternative global order, it certainly will have no lack of countries and leaders that will support it. If China's motive was to establish peace, then it would be beneficial. But if it is just a part of its competition with the US, or to protect its 'zhiji' Putin, then perhaps same people can be fooled some of the time. But all of the people cannot be fooled all of the time.

* Hasan Ferdous is a columnist and writer

* This column appeared in the print an online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir