The overall opinions reflected in the Prothom Alo public survey on socio-political issues, in my view, mirror reality.
There is a lack of public confidence in the current law and order situation. People expect that an elected government will improve law and order. At the same time, they hope that the elected government will succeed in creating employment opportunities, boosting investment, controlling inflation, ensuring women’s safety and freedom of movement, and protecting freedom of expression.
The upcoming national election is extremely important. After 16 years, people will finally be able to vote—naturally, there is an expectation around that. Yet in some areas they cannot remain hopeful.
They also have doubts. Respondents are not optimistic that an elected government will be able to curb corruption or recover money laundered abroad. As a result, the survey reveals a mixed picture of public sentiment.
Nearly 73 per cent of respondents believe an elected government will succeed in controlling the law-and-order situation. However, the institutions that make up the law enforcement system have seen a severe moral decline. I do not see that these institutions have been able to overcome this crisis. It seems unrealistic to expect that public trust in these forces will be restored immediately after an elected government takes office. Rebuilding the law enforcement agencies will require a long process.
Given the political culture we have had for decades, public trust has not developed in the belief that those who come to power after the election will have the mentality to make law enforcement, the administration, and other state institutions truly free from partisan influence.
More than 69 per cent of respondents expect the elected government to succeed in controlling inflation. I do not think that expectation is unrealistic. In the past year and a half, there has been little improvement in domestic or foreign investment and in trade.
One of the main reasons is that when political instability and uncertainty prevail, business and investment do not grow. So people are hoping that the situation will stabilise after the election. Similarly, there is an expectation that employment opportunities will increase.
About 69 per cent of respondents think the elected government will ensure a safer environment for women to move freely—this too is not unreasonable. The lack of security has always existed, but after the July mass uprising, this insecurity has increased significantly. There are many reasons behind this. In particular, the groups that now consider themselves victorious in the movement, where the influence of religion-based politics is prominent, have contributed to this. Many believe that the party expected to come to power—assumed to be the BNP—will not take as strong a religion-based stance.
The reaction of a certain group to the recommendations of the Commission on Women’s Reform was outrageous. The state completely failed to take a stand against this. It was a very disappointing experience. At a time when the government needed to send a strong signal about its position on women’s rights, it failed. The forces that have grown stronger, and consider themselves victorious, now believe ideologically that “this is our time.” Therefore, I cannot suddenly become optimistic. Those who are optimistic assume that if the BNP comes to power, at least the situation for women will not worsen. Ideologically, the BNP has typically been centre-of-the-road.
About 70 per cent of respondents expect that an elected government will ensure freedom of expression—perhaps that is possible in the short term. But given our political history, there is little record of tolerance for dissent, acceptance of differing opinions, or the moral courage to withstand criticism.
Forty-eight per cent of respondents believe the elected government will fail to control corruption. I would not have been surprised if that number were even higher. There is little reason to be optimistic. One major challenge for whoever comes to power will be overcoming their own past record.
About 38 per cent of respondents think the elected government will fail to recover money laundered abroad during the previous Awami League government. This reflects reality.
Respondents believe this because a year and a half has passed, but not a single taka has been recovered. As someone who works on this issue, I can confidently say that the money already laundered is essentially our failure, we could not prevent it.
According to global experience, it takes a minimum of 7 to 10 years to recover laundered money. Only about 1 per cent of illicit flows from developing countries to developed countries is ever recovered. Bringing back laundered money is extremely difficult. However, we cannot give up. At the same time, our priority should be preventing money laundering in the first place.
* Iftekharuzzaman, Executive Director, Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB)
* The opinions expressed are the author’s own.