Why do we fail in gas exploration and solar power

Massive load shedding, which started due to the acute energy crisis in July 2022, could not be decreased much even in the winter in December and January. Load shedding may increase again from April. Diesel-run power plants have been halted in a bid to save diesel import costs.

Although there is a capacity of generating 26,000 MW electricity, 10,000-11000 MW is being generated daily. Rampal Power Plant and Payra Power Plant could not operate fully due to the crisis of coal as import had been restricted.

Imported LNG fuel and the power generation policy are mainly responsible for this crisis. People concerned said this import-dependent LNG is just to benefit some influential importers. As a result, gas exploration has been ignored intentionally and power generation from renewable energy like solar power has not been given priority. This policy may have been adopted as the price of LNG in the international market was cheap, but this excessive dependence has put us in danger.

In 2020, there was huge outcry across the country as the price of LNG in the international market shot up. The situation turned worse due to the Ukraine war in 2022. However, the price of LNG has decreased. The price of oil also started increasing from July 2022.

It is very significant that oil and gas fields could not be found except some small gas fields in the last 14 years. Although it was said Bhola is floating on gas, steps have not started so far to transform that gas into LNG or CNG and bring it to the mainland. Winning cases against Myanmar and India in 2012 and 2014, Bangladesh got control of a huge maritime territory. But exploration was not launched in the last 9-11 years.

News has recently been published that US company ExxonMobil has shown interest in exploration of 15 offshore blocks. The matter should be given priority. In the past Myanmar opposed a Korean Company to explore gas within the maritime boundary of Bangladesh. They would not be able to do that in the case of the US company. Myanmar in their maritime boundary near St. Martin Islam is lifting gas over five TCF.

Overlooking solar power is in no way acceptable. I was inspired by an article by Simon Nicholas, Energy Finance Analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 'Why Bangladesh shouldn't count on a fossil fuel future' published on 3 February 2021 in the Daily Star. Simon Nicholas, Energy Finance Analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), wrote this article.

In the article, Simon Nicholas mentioned that Vietnam is already leading the way in the region by installing rooftop solar panels, generating an astonishing 9,000 MW of power within the past 12 months.

However, the production of solar power in Bangladesh was 300 MW. Bonik Barta, in a report on 26 March 2023, said in China 45 per cent of total 1100,000 MW power comes from renewable energy source, solar power. The amount was 33 per cent in India, and Pakistan claims that they received 13,943 MW from renewable sources. In Bangladesh in 2022, only 966 MW power was generated from renewable sources.

The price hike of LNG has hit the power sector in Bangladesh. More unfortunate is that the government contacts with diesel and furnace oil-run rental and quick rental power plants have ended log ago, but the tenure of agreements is being extended through corruption. If the government does not purchase power, the government has to pay capacity charges.

If we want to get remedy from the dependence on fossil fuel for power, our solar power policy has to be changed in light of the success of China, India and Vietnam.

Bangladesh's 'Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) in its roadmap recommends generating 30,000 MW electricity from solar power, and of this, 12,000 MW from rooftop solar panels. Why weren't any activities taken despite the passage of several years since the declaration of the road map?

Simon said of the 12,000 MW, 5,000 MW can be generated by using the rooftop of RMG factories and 2,000 more MW can be generated by using the rooftop of different government buildings. It is not impossible to generate the remaining 5,000 MW power by using rooftop of private commercial and house buildings.

It should be determined why the generation of 1000 MW solar power could not be achieved in 2022. China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Philippines and Germany have achieved tremendous success in rooftop-based solar power. Specific subsidies in solar panel and battery installation and providing incentive in installing net metering in subsidy price have been identified as the main elements of their success. Rooftop-based solar power was popularised in these countries as under the 'net metering' system the monthly bills of power users from the national grid could be brought down to zero and additional power can be sold to the government.

'Net metering' technology can easily be imported from China. However, our progress in this case remains very low. We have invested over Tk 1130 billion for establishing the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. We will get 2,400 MW power by 2024. I did not support this dangerous nuclear technology in a populated country like Bangladesh.

My opinion is that the government subsidy would not be half of the investment of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant to generate 2400 MW power if rooftop-based solar power generation would get priority. Solar power is the most environment-friendly and risk-free technology. According to a study, it requires less than Tk 10 in generating one unit solar power in China, Vietnam and Thailand.

This means ahead of the recent price hike of LNG, the expenditure of solar power generation decreased compared to gas-based power generation. After the high price hike of LNG, solar power has become cheaper further.

It is not true that wide open spaces are required for generating solar power and which is not possible in Bangladesh. Let us look into the possibility of installing solar panels on the banks of canals, rivers and the sea coast across the country. I will request the government to give priority to solar power in the power sector as the source of renewable energy.

*Moinul Islam is an economist and former professor at the Economics department at Chittagong University. 

 *This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.