It has been nearly two years since the mass uprising of 2024. During this long span of time, a kind of transformation has taken place across the country's political landscape as well as in the arts and cultural sphere, educational institutions, and many other areas. These are changes of a kind not seen before.
Although negative changes have outweighed positive ones amid the rise of mob culture, the possibility of a democratic path forward for the country has opened up.
As a result, many are now asking: Is Awami League, which was removed from power during the mass uprising and whose activities remain banned, making a comeback?
Whether the Awami League returns or not will depend on the party's leadership and the people of this country.
However, before a party that remains legally banned can rejoin the democratic process, we must ask how much change the party, widely labeled as authoritarian, has actually brought about within itself over the past two years. Only then can the people of this country decide whether to create a platform for its return to politics.
Before asking whether the party's popularity is declining or increasing, we need to understand how politically active the Awami League has been over the past two years.
This historic political party, the country's oldest and one that led the Liberation War, moved away over the last decade from the principles and ideals that once formed the foundation of its organisational structure.
Becoming members of parliament through elections lacking voter participation, along with the distribution of ministerial positions, effectively dismantled the party's grassroots structure.
Under a bureaucratic system of governance, the framework of political government faded away. As a result, Awami League''s period in power became marked by political alienation at the grassroots level.
Through corruption, enforced disappearances, killings, and the exercise of oligarchic power, the party became increasingly disconnected from the public, eventually facing the mass uprising of 2024. The government of Sheikh Hasina was subsequently removed from power.
The question now is whether Awami League has truly understood the reasons why it is facing the greatest crisis in its history. How much self-correction has the party actually been able to achieve?
While Awami League government was in power, reports of corruption and the accumulation of illicit wealth by the party’s members of parliament and ministers regularly appeared in newspapers.
The Awami League leadership, which failed to stop bank looters even after such reports were published, has surely now taken note of those issues.
During this period of crisis, when thousands of the party’s leaders and activists have been in jail, newspapers have reported that those accused of embezzling money have been living cushy lives abroad.
Many of those Awami League MPs and ministers who failed to stand by the party’s leaders and activists have now gone into “mute mode.” Once-powerful political figures have largely disappeared from public discussion.
For many, political careers are also coming to an end. Among the leaders who speak on online platforms, some have quietly acknowledged certain mistakes and shortcomings, but there has been little visible evidence of any significant structural change on their part.
A large segment of the younger generation had developed a negative perception of Awami League, yet there has been little in the party’s activities or rhetoric that appears aimed at improving that image.
Questions remain about how much the party has been able to cultivate leadership capable of attracting young people after its downfall. At the same time, it is worth considering how receptive young people are to political narratives built around the ideals of the Liberation War and Bangabandhu.
In the period following 1975, Awami League experienced internal divisions and organisational fractures, but during the current crisis we have not seen anything similar to that extent.
Although there has been speculation about a “refined Awami League,” the party’s leaders and activists do not appear to have responded enthusiastically to that idea. Instead, they seem intent on moving forward centered around Sheikh Hasina. This has become fairly clear.
We do not know to what extent former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been able to reorganise the party’s leaders and activists, but clips of her regularly participating in virtual meetings have been circulating online.
The rhetoric in these clips still contains harsh attacks and denunciations. Alongside criticism of various irregularities of the interim government, there is also a tendency toward “settling scores” or “getting even,” which people are unlikely to view as normal or acceptable.
A wave of politics driven by revenge and retaliation is currently underway. Amid this trend, messages calling for “revenge” are being regularly communicated through social media by leaders of Awami League. This suggests that the politics of the future could become increasingly conflict-ridden.
Yet what ordinary people expect is for the party to move away from this politics of threats and intimidation. Although the failures of the interim government and the rise of mob violence may have created an opening for Awami League’s return to politics, the party still has not been able to convey a message of internal reform.
Unless the Awami League can abandon corrupt figures and looters and develop a political strategy centered on ordinary people, it will not be able to emerge from its current crisis.
Awami League must understand that a large segment of the younger generation has turned away from it, and overcoming this situation could make the party’s re-establishment in the politics of the future considerably more difficult
Since being removed from power, a noticeable change has been observed among the party’s grassroots leaders and activists. Many members who had been sidelined by influential “hybrid” leaders have come forward to support the party during this difficult period.
A large number of them had been dissatisfied with the previous leadership. Through this period of decline, the Awami League may be rediscovering its dedicated grassroots workers.
Yes, it is true that the Awami League has not been able to engage in street politics over the past two years. Since the 2024 movement, the party has not been involved in any major acts of violence.
As a result, despite rhetoric about taking revenge, the more important question is whether the party can sustain what appears to be a tendency toward creating a political arena free from bloodshed.
On the other hand, it cannot be dismissed that attacks on Liberation War memorials and incidents of persecution and harassment against the party’s leaders and activists in different parts of the country have generated a degree of public sympathy for the party. However, claiming this as evidence of growing popularity would be problematic.
The public will remain interested in whether thieves, opportunists, and corrupt individuals continue to find shelter within the party’s leadership.
Awami League must understand that a large segment of the younger generation has turned away from it, and overcoming this situation could make the party’s re-establishment in the politics of the future considerably more difficult.
How successful a new democratic journey for Awami League in Bangladesh will be, after addressing the allegations surrounding the killings of students and civilians during the 2024 movement and overcoming the legal complications stemming from the ban on its activities, will depend largely on positive changes in leadership.
The key question, however, is how much opportunity its political opponents will allow for such a process.
* Dr. Nadim Mahmud is a researcher at University of California
Email: [email protected]
* The opinions here expressed are solely those of the author.
* This article appeared on Bangla in Prothom Alo online and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir for Prothom Alo English Online.