An eye must be kept on the military government

Other than the five years following the 2015 election, Myanmar has been under direct military rule since 1962. And even though Bangladesh is a close neighbour, relations with the country have remained on formal footing. That is why there is no reason to believe that Monday’s military coup in Myanmar will have any impact on these relations. However, Bangladesh needs to stay alert about whether Myanmar’s military government takes up any fresh measures.

The western world may be expressing their dismay about the end of democracy here, but the fact remains that democratic rule never existed there. The authority of Aung San Suu Kyi’s government was very limited. One fourth of the parliament members were from the military. They would attend parliament in uniform.

The Myanmar constitution provides the army chief authority to appoint a vice president. Military officials would hold important posts such as that of defence minister and home minister. Over all, the military was much in charge of running the country. The government did not have an iota of control over the army chief. The military would run the country under the façade of democracy.

The Rohingya issue occupied much of the space in Bangladesh’s relations with Myanmar over the past four decades. After the massive influx of Rohingyas into Bangladesh in 2017, there have been talks between the two countries, but nothing achieved. Before talks with Bangladesh, Myanmar’s civilian government inevitably took cue from the stance of the armed forces. And it must be kept in mind that the last spate of brutalities against the Rohingyas took place while the government of Aung San Suu Kyi was at the helm. So there is no reason to see any difference between the mindset of the civilian government and that of the military in Myanmar.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s stance was proven when she spoke in defence of the military’s brutalities at the hearing in the international court regarding the Rohingya genocide. So there is not going to be any difference in the Rohingya issue because of the military rule.

Perhaps the talks regarding Rohingya repatriation will be postponed. Perhaps the military government will set a new date. More importantly, will the Rohingyas want to return in these new circumstances? No such environment has been restored in Rakhine that will encourage the Rohingyas to return to their homeland.

Reviewing recent geopolitical developments, it is obvious that India and China have both been maintaining good relations with Myanmar. In their own interests, these two countries will maintain their cordial ties with the new government. However, Myanmar will become more dependent on China. In that case, we may appeal to China for a solution to the Rohingya crisis. Also, taking the values of good governance, democracy and human rights into consideration, the US may also place some embargoes on Myanmar. It is to be seen, over the next few days, what stand the western countries adopt.

* Touhid Hossain is a former foreign secretary of Bangladesh. This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir