Economy can’t be revived without containing the virus

A favourable environment is necessary for investment. Earlier, Bangladesh was facing various problems and now the situation makes it clear that there will not be a lot of new investment in next one year or more.

However, new opportunities and possibilities will emerge. Investment can be made in those areas. The health sector may be an area for investment. I think a fundamental change will come about in the health sector. We spend a lot of money for treatment abroad. It would be very good if we can ensure better treatment locally and the business remains here in Bangladesh. I think investment trends will not become normal unless a new normal situation sets in. We have to use the new opportunities which will emerge ahead. Those, who will do better and utilise new technology and business strategies, will progress. If anyone thinks that everything will return to its previous situation, that would be a mistake.

The demand for commodities may decline in the days to come. We can adopt some short and mid-term policies so that the demand remains strong. The government can undertake some low-cost projects to create higher employment opportunities. This can resolve unemployment problems. Moreover, this will provide money to those who have lost their purchasing capacity and thus demands will increase.

Foreign investment will come if we can play a significant role in the changing global situation. Foreign investment will increase if we can attract Chinese investment. However, everything depends on how we contain the health risks. We have to keep in mind that it is not a separate issue. It is very much related to the economy and businesses.

Employment opportunities will decrease in the days to come. Factories will be shut. We see some signs of this already. Coronavirus is behind this situation. We should have realised that the economy could not be revived without containing coronavirus. Still there is time to protect a major portion of the economy. Coronavirus infections may increase in Dhaka and Chattogram. But there is time to protect the other parts of the country.

Around 2.2 million people newly enter the labour market. If employed people lose jobs, how will the new people get jobs? Those who will lose jobs will stay in the villages. They will be in crisis. They will be provided with cash or employment opportunities will be created for them. The social safety net programmes have to be expanded. Employers are not likely to terminate skilled workforce.

After losing employment, there may be an unstable situation. We do not want such a situation in public life. There must be a strong plan to address this situation.

KAS Murhisd is director general at Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

*This piece, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.