It was Christmas Day when the current Prime Minister Tarique Rahman returned to the country. He delivered a brief speech titled, themed “I have a plan.” At that time, aside from a few extremist groups, most concerned citizens wanted a government elected through elections to come to power.
Tarique Rahman was able to grasp this public sentiment, which is why he promised a “safe Bangladesh.” Capturing the collective aspirations of the people is the greatest measure of success in politics. In this regard, Tarique Rahman has demonstrated maturity and wisdom. However, people still do not have a clear understanding of his “plan.”
Ensuring a safe Bangladesh and building a cautious economy should be the central objective of that plan. Creating scattered historical controversies pushes urgent economic considerations to the back seat. If such actions continue, even the tenure of a “global celebrity” can ultimately endanger the economy, something we have witnessed over the past year and a half. If BNP proceeds down that path from the outset, it will make a mistake. If driven by vengeance, the number of cases might even surpass the population, but this will not deliver justice or accelerate business activity. Investment will stall, and unemployment will rise.
BNP can learn from the final “dervish era” of Awami League, but it can learn a hundred times more from the “mob era” of the interim government. The former eroded the economy from within, while the latter attacked it from the outside, openly. Both are to be avoided. In the economy, oligarchs should exist as collaborators, not as policymakers.
China’s tycoons have been key players in the country’s manufacturing revolution, but the communist rulers keep them aligned on the tracks of state policy. If they act against national interests, their passports are revoked; if they default, their photos are displayed on billboards at street corners. South Korea and Vietnam have also benefited from this firmness in policy.
In 2024, Vietnamese billionaire Truong My Lan was sentenced to death for embezzling money from a bank, sparking global uproar. I heard a discussion about it on US public radio, where a Vietnam expert said it was a strong message to deter others from looting banks. My Lan said, “I do not wish to die in this beautiful world.” She handed over all her assets to the state. The judge, showing compassion, commuted her sentence to life imprisonment, allowing her to live on “red rice.” Justice and the effective enforcement of law are prerequisites for a cautious economy. Since then, no other major “My Lan” has emerged in Vietnam, and its economy has been performing well.
Before Narendra Modi came to power, that is, before 2014, India was the world’s tenth-largest economy. There, tycoons may accumulate wealth, but they cannot dominate policymaking. Former IMF Chief Economist and current Harvard professor Gita Gopinath believes that by 2028, India will become the third-largest economy after the United States and China. This progress has been made possible by politicians’ policymaking capacity, guided by legal and economic experts. BNP must demonstrate the same.In policymaking, there should be no place for mystics, bank looters, or land-grabbers. This is the foundational lesson in building a cautious economy.
Had Professor Yunus’ period in power not occurred, we might never have understood what shortsightedness truly means. Sheikh Saadi said that one learns manners by observing the ill-mannered. There is a proverb: all’s well that ends well. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Yunus did hold an election, but he did not make it inclusive of all parties. He shifted the risk onto others’ shoulders. Just a few days ago, the hastily concluded US trade agreement undermined the country’s sovereignty in commercial decision-making under the veil of secrecy.
Professor Yunus’ unusual eagerness regarding port-related agreements is questionable, and it is not beyond doubt that the self-interest of his own group may be involved. At a time when poverty is rising in the country, his enthusiasm for arms deals resembles the behaviour of a restless stock market speculator. The BNP government will have to move in the opposite direction of such careless and imprudent steps.
The current prime minister must demonstrate through action whether he has learned from modern economies and Western democracies during his 17 years in exile. A slightly unconventional approach will inspire the younger generation
During its 15 years in power, the Hasina government increased foreign debt by about $82 billion. With these funds, it undertook numerous mega projects, many of which are now visible, although inefficiency, waste, and corruption were involved. Over the past year and a half, the interim government has increased foreign debt by more than $9 billion but has failed to present any major visible projects in return. Nearly the entire budget has been spent on operational expenses, with development spending being negligible—an indication of inefficiency and wastefulness.
After completing his tenure, the Yunus government’s economic adviser claimed in the newspaper Bonik Barta that “the interim government avoided populist decisions and focused on stable, long-term sustainable development.” Some say he is prone to self-praise.
Building a necessary bridge reduces public suffering and enhances national growth capacity—what is wrong if that is considered “populist”? The BNP is considering constructing a second Padma and Jamuna bridge, which would both satisfy public demand and support long-term sustainable development. It is the responsibility of a government elected by the people’s vote to undertake people-oriented projects.
Had the Yunus government truly considered public satisfaction or the nation’s long-term interests, it would not have entered into secret agreements. High inflation and rising poverty are evidence that the government did not care about accountability. Frequent speeches alone do not constitute accountability. A government incapable of solving short-term problems cannot keep a nation content by offering long-term dreams.
The BNP government’s first task should be to carefully identify and address short-term problems. A task force is necessary for this, with the inclusion of economists. The BNP government should, even if it requires payment, appoint a group of economists to prepare a research report evaluating the economic period of the interim government. This would assist the new government in policymaking and increase caution in the course of the economy.
The expectation is that the BNP government elected in 2026 will be different from the BNP governments of 1991 or 2001. The current prime minister must demonstrate through action whether he has learned from modern economies and Western democracies during his 17 years in exile. A slightly unconventional approach will inspire the younger generation, reinforcing the belief that the government is moving toward a developed nation. For example, in this technological era, no one reduces weekly holidays, rather, they increase them.
To address the energy crisis, work-from-home systems should be introduced where necessary. Clock time should be permanently advanced by at least half an hour. The fiscal year should be aligned with the calendar year. A separate revenue ministry should be established. Traffic congestion cannot be resolved without expanding the metro rail system. Appeasing extremist attitudes has not enriched any economy in the world. Women must be fairly included in all areas of work. By defining a clear national vision and strengthening foreign relations based on strategic and trade interests, progress can be made. These are the fundamental principles of building a cautious economy.
* Dr. Birupaksha Pal is a professor of economics at the State University of New York at Cortland, USA.
* The views expressed here are the author’s own.