Ukraine crisis spells bad news for us too

There are many Marxists and Leninists who idealise the Soviet Union and China as the pioneers of socialism and still hold on to their convictions. After its disintegration, not a single part of Lenin's Soviet Union follows his ideology. As for China, it is amassing wealth through new forms of capitalism. However, many believe such contentions are nothing but western propaganda. So they are thrilled when Russia or China poses a challenge to the head honcho of western capitalist countries, the United States. The Ukraine crisis is no exception.

The US and its allies are at the nadir of credibility following their unwarranted military interventions and incursions into Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya, which have left behind a trail of human destruction. Under such circumstances, it may seem justified to take a detached stance regarding Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. However, the fact is that none of us can ignore the possible fallout of this crisis.

Other than the possible loss of lives and humanitarian disaster, the world has begun to feel the direct and imminent impact of the Ukraine crisis. As part of Bangladesh going global, there are over a thousand Bangladeshis living in Ukraine and their families are gripped with anxiety and alarm. And outside of this humanitarian concern, the other impact of the Ukraine crisis being felt by the rest of the world is the hike in fuel oil and gas prices.

With Russia being the third major fuel oil and gas producer in the world, there are apprehensions of further unrest in the market. Around 65 per cent of Germany's gas supply is from Russia. However, though construction of the second gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2, is complete, Germany has halted the project due to the Ukraine crisis. Reacting to this, Russia has said that now fuel costs for European consumers will double. And it is not that this will just affect Europe. We will all be impacted. Those who are already floundering under the high costs of gas and electricity will feel the pinch even further. If fuel costs go up, transport costs and prices of essentials will go up too.

This crisis will also affect the food grain market because Ukraine is the world's top producer of wheat, corn, maize and other food grains. Given the war circumstances, Ukraine's exports have almost come to a halt. Wheat prices have gone up in the global market, the Indian suppliers have hiked the price for export to Bangladesh. That spells bad news for those who are turning to 'ruti' (flattened bread) due to the rising price of rice.

The political dangers of the Ukraine crisis are no less daunting. President Putin has given his recognition to the declaration of independence by the insurgents of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk and has sent Russian troops there as peacekeepers to stop what he calls the genocide there. He has called Ukraine an imaginary state. Now, 33 years after its independence in 1991, Putin is denying Ukraine's sovereignty and is forcing it into subservience. The UN secretary general has said that Russia's stance regarding Ukraine is a violation of the UN declaration.

Russia's threat to Ukraine's sovereignty sets an alarming precedent for countries that are relatively militarily and politically weak. Ukraine's helplessness proves that economic self-reliance is no guarantee for independence. It may become impossible for others to avoid the threat emerging from the contest among the big powers to spread their influence globally. The political ambitions of certain extreme nationalist groups, not just in ancient or mediaeval history, but even in colonial times, are examples. There are no permanent friends or foes in politics. Ukraine is realising only too well that relations with neighbours do no always remain the same. The Baltic countries are worried if they will be Russia's next target after Ukraine.

Bangladesh's relations with its large neighbour are warm and cordial at the moment and the general hope is that this will remain so. But can unforeseen apprehensions be dismissed? There are the extremist religious groups in India, which are reflected not just in marginal political players, but in certain remarks of the mainstream too. During the launch of a book on 26 November last year, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leader Mohan Bhagwat spoke of reviving undivided India. Then the national general secretary of India's ruling BJP, Ram Madhav, speaking in 2015 in Al Jazeera's show hosted by Mehdi Hasan, said he believes that India, Pakistan and Bangladesh would merge together and become undivided India once again. BJP's Rajya Sabha member Subramanian Swamy promotes an even harder line. On 1 October 2018 in Agartala, he called for an attack on Bangladesh in order to protect the Hindus from repression there.

The Ukraine crisis is bad news not just for peace-loving anti-war elements. It is bad news for pro-democracy elements too. With the international community focused on such a global crisis, attention shifts away from the authoritarian rulers. In fact, in order to create their respective blocs and consolidate strength, the opposing powers often give leeway to the leaders of many undemocratic countries. After the Al-Qaeda attack on the Twin Towers in New York, the US had no qualms in striking up a deal with Pakistan's military ruler Pervez Musharraf. In fact, the US, UK, France and other countries of the West have often taken help from autocrats around the world. The wave of democracy that had swept the world towards the end of the last century, has subsided under the military and political initiatives to quell Al-Qaeda and Islamist militancy.

And democracy continues to regress. Civil rights are shrinking the world over. After coming to power through majority votes of the people, politicians are becoming authoritarian. The space for different views and criticism is shrinking. Monopolisation of power is rendering institutions ineffective. Lack of accountability, along with impunity, is driving justice and the rule of law into exile.

At the same time, amidst this series of unfortunate events, civil society is building up resistance. There are signs of global integration in support of democracy and fundamental human rights. However, there is also fear that this support may falter due to the Ukraine crisis. That is why if the Ukraine-Russia conflict takes shape of a full-fledged war, the international community supporting either side will face huge losses in life and resources. This is very bad news for supporters of democracy.

* Kamal Ahmed is a senior journalist.

* This column appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ayesha Kabir