Why has BNP suddenly turned around?

'BNP can't drum up a movement.' 'It is organisationally weak.' 'The party hardly has any public support.' Awami League has been spreading such vitriol about BNP continuously. But BNP has stood up against all such criticism and has turned around quite adroitly. It is more confident than before and a new spark has been added to its movement. There is a change in its words and actions. The deliberations of the party leaders reflect self-confidence.

This sudden turn around by BNP has been spurred on by its strategic programmes and the rise of its grassroots. The various programmes held over the past few months have seen a boost in strength at the grassroots. While there may be dilemma and clashes of interests among the central leaders, the message from the grassroots leaders and activists is clear. They want to be active in the movement. Even the killing of four BNP men in police fire has not lessened their enthusiasm to join in processions and rallies. Quite to the contrary, attendance at these events is steadily swelling.

The involvement of the general people is increasing in particular. At its various programmes, BNP is highlighting the problems and crises of daily life. Albeit late, BNP is arranging programmes focused on the pitiful predicament of the economy. Two BNP men were killed in Bhola in a procession protesting against the hike in power prices. It is not only BNP men who join these processions, but the general people too. It can be noted that wherever BNP holds these rallies, general people hang around at the periphery, listening. After all, they are at a loss with the spiraling prices of rice, lentils and oil. They are struggling to make ends meet.

Development rhetoric doesn't fill their stomachs. Their stomachs are rumbling. They want change to emerge from this plight. They want an end to the sad state of the economy. They want an end to money laundering and looting. They want the price of power to go down. They want shorter lines of people wanting to buy rice and lentils from the TCB trucks. They want security back in their lives. They do not want to be killed on the way home like Samia Preeti. They want relief from this suffocating situation.

The government is in dire straits with inflation, the dollar crisis and the fall in import revenue and remittance. The people can hardly bear the burden of increased fuel prices and the cost of everyday living. That is why more and more of the common people are joining BNP's processions.

Shawon Prodhan, the Jubo Dal activist who was killed in Narayanganj, would work in a garage. Shawon Bhuiyan who was killed in Munshiganj, would ride a 'mishuk' (rudimentary auto-rickshaw). The two activists killed in Bhola were also from very ordinary families. It is the participation of such ordinary people that ushers in change through movements and struggles. There are the foolish who believe that the participation of the middle and upper classes is important for political change. But the middle class is caught up in all sorts of tensions. A host of considerations keep them away from actually joining movements and struggles. And it hasn't been heard that the upper class ever carried out any revolution anywhere in the world. This wealthy class is washed away in the tide of the poverty-stricken people.

Alongside the involvement of the common people, another significant aspect of BNP's ongoing movement, is that it has managed to generate people's confidence without even any hartals (general strikes) or blockades. BNP has not taken up any fiery or violent movement. It is carrying out programmes openly in the day time. The BNP leaders and activists at various places are joining in these programmes, carrying national flags. During the Arab Spring, we saw in Cairo's Tahrir Square or in the Tunisian capital Tunis, people in processions, demanding democracy with national flags in the hands. The protagonists of the Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, wrapped themselves in the national flag and joined rallies. In Turkey, Erdogan's supporters thwarted a coup, taking to the streets with the national flag at night. We saw the people with flags in hand during the demonstrations in Chile. The Iraqis are still waging a movement in Iraq, flags in hand. The national flag gives the people a boost when waging a movement against any misrule. It inspires their desire for democracy.

It is clear that BNP is not resorting to violence, but is endeavouring to add a different dimension to their movement. Till now, BNP has not taken up any vengeful programmes. They are being assaulted, exposing the violent nature of Awami League and the police. As the election approaches, all sorts of violent incidents will be instigated. It is difficult to tell how far BNP will be able to distance itself from violence and begin its movement along with other political parties.

BNP must keep up the pace of this movement and the support of the grassroots and the common people. At the same time, BNP must be cautious about the speculations of a compromise with the government. Such speculations dampen the spirit of the activists. It pulls the reins on the pace of the programmes. At the recent meetings held to exchange views at a division level, the grassroots leaders warned the central leaders against any sort of compromise. They said they were unwilling to take part in any election under this government. Even if BNP agrees to join the election, they will be resisted by the grassroots leaders and activists of the party. The BNP grassroots activists said that there is no alternative to elections under a non-party government. It seems that BNP's grassroots do not have full confidence in the central leaders. They directly blame the central leaders for the past failed movements.

The grassroots BNP leaders and activists have misgivings about several central leaders of the party. BNP will have to assuage their doubts and misgivings from within the party. Caution must be exercised concerning the leaders who are suspected to have compromised with the government in the past or who had gone against party interests. It must be kept in mind, the BNP activists who have died, have given their lives for the party, to bring a halt to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killing. The grassroots BNP workers are not coming to the processions for any election of compromise. That is not why they are giving their lives.

* Dr Maruf Mullick is a political analyst