The visit of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to China and the joint communique issued at the end of the visit make it clear that the relationship between these two countries has now entered a qualitatively new level. China has now taken the place that India occupied as the driver of this relationship for so long. India has not overlooked this development.
According to the joint communique, China has reiterated its support for Bangladesh's efforts to uphold national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity and has expressed respect for the decisions of the Bangladeshi people in choosing their path of independent development. Later, in explaining this stance in Dhaka, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen stated that China is vehemently opposed to any foreign interference in any country and stands by Bangladesh in opposing such interference.
The problem is that if the statement had been delivered in the usual ambiguous diplomatic language, which is preserved in the first sentence of the ambassador's statement, there would have been less controversy. But the ambassador proactively stated that if anyone tries to interfere in Bangladesh’s affairs, they will also intervene. In other words, to counter one foreign intervention with another, neither of which is desirable.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that this statement was made with India in mind. Not only this statement, but the agreements mentioned at the end of the visit have also not sat well with Indians. Officially, they have maintained diplomatic protocol by saying they are ''monitoring the matter.'' However, the Indian media, especially when it comes to Bangladesh, does not adhere to protocol. On social media, there has been a proliferation of comments as usual.
The new arrangements regarding the Mongla port and Teesta barrage project are seen by some as calamities for India. The Reliance Group’s CNN-News18 portal, which is close to the Modi government, has reported that the policy changes in the country after Tarique Rahman's government came to power have dealt a major blow to India's eastern security arrangements and regional border diplomacy.
They further wrote that "through a major policy shift, Dhaka has decided to hand over the prestigious Mongla development project to China, effectively canceling an allocation originally given to India in 2015. This directly challenges New Delhi’s longstanding influence in the Bay of Bengal and indicates a deep chill in bilateral relations. "
India Today's video commentary stated more pointedly that the transfer of the Mongla port to China is a huge strategic disaster for India. If a maritime port so close to its border is under Chinese control, China will have ample opportunity to monitor Indian maritime boundaries. Another commentator on NDTV, Tara Kartha, almost pointed her finger, saying that India should be ''very, very'' cautious about this.
Not only Indian but several international observers are also discussing and analyzing the significance of Tarique Rahman's visit to China. Michael Kugelman wrote in Foreign Policy magazine that this visit is not just a routine meet-and-greet between Bangladesh and its key stakeholders; its purpose is to send a message to India.
China corridor
The tri-nation economic corridor involving Bangladesh, Myanmar, and China has also come up for discussion. The proposal is not new. China presented it to Bangladesh as part of its Belt and Road Initiative during Hasina’s tenure, but the work did not progress for various reasons. Earlier, in 1999, a proposal for such a corridor including India was made by Professor Rehman Sobhan's CPD, with the aim of establishing rail and road communication from Kunming, China, to Kolkata, including Bangladesh and Myanmar. Some field surveys were conducted, but the project did not progress mainly due to the downturn in India-China relations.
Moreover, the region in Myanmar where this corridor is supposed to pass is mostly in the hands of the Arakan insurgents. Therefore, until the security situation in Myanmar comes under control, it does not seem likely that this corridor project will advance much. Furthermore, the United States does not look favourably upon China’s growing influence in this region. Keeping that in mind, Bangladesh has probably not yet agreed to China’s proposal.
Disappointed and concerned India
Indian analysts have expressed doubts about the Mongla, Teesta, and connectivity corridor projects. One of them is Veena Sikri, a former Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh. She told NDTV that Tarique Rahman has deviated from the agreements reached with India during Hasina’s last official visit before her departure from power in 2024. Sikri alleged that at the time, the Mongla port modernisation project and the Teesta water management project inside Bangladesh were both given to India. The interim government of Muhammad Yunus overturned this decision. After Tarique Rahman became Prime Minister, India expected him to come to India first as Prime Minister. That did not happen, which is also a significant change.
Veena Sikri openly indicates that the change in circumstances after 2024 has altered Bangladesh’s orientation. "We were supposed to get Mongla, but that China got it is a significant change." She understood the message Tarique Rahman sent through this visit was that India is not sitting in the driver’s seat.
On the other hand, the irritation in India over Tarique Rahman’s visit to China is being characterised as a ''big brotherly attitude'' from China’s side. Global Times, close to the Communist Party, stated that there is nothing for India to be worried about. If India wants, it can also unify with China and Bangladesh to become partners in development.
Our ‘China card’
Bangladeshi officials are undoubtedly excited about their newfound ''China card. '' Foreign Affairs Minister Khalilur Rahman stated that Bangladesh is no longer just a ''client state,'' but an equal development partner.
However, before fully binding with China, I feel it is essential to thoroughly examine the terms of the agreement. Some African countries have fallen into a ‘debt trap’ after taking large loans from China. The experience of Sri Lanka handing over its Hambantota port to China is not very good either.
The experience of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor agreement is also not very different. Like Sri Lanka, it too is burdened with debt.
There is much to learn from the experiences of these countries. Pakistani economist Kaiser Bengali has said China has not trapped Pakistan in calculations; Pakistan has proceeded without weighing the pros and cons. Security expert Ayesha Siddiqa commented that whatever projects the two countries undertake, they should be transparent so that the reality is not obscured behind secret agreements. Most importantly, the country's people must be involved, and ownership of every project should be handed over to them.
Sri Lankan experts have said almost the same thing. Ganeshan Wignaraja, a former economist at the Asian Development Bank, said that while Chinese aid is good, oversight must be kept in one's own hands. People should know what projects are beneficial and what are not, better than foreigners.
Another economist, Harsha de Silva, warned that investing in any project that is not useful, no matter how attractive it seems, is not a good idea.
Every piece of advice is worth remembering. We certainly want China to join us as a development partner. However, before we take each step, we must ensure that our sovereignty is never compromised.
#Hasan Ferdous an essayist and columnist
*The opinions expressed are the author’s own.
#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam