'Bangladesh must prepare for a turbulent international environment'

Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) convened a high-level roundtable on “Global Trends 2025” at The Westin, Dhaka, on 23 January bringing together ambassadors, security experts, former diplomats, and academics to discuss the evolving dynamics of international relations and their implications for the world in 2025 onwards, stated a press release.

The discussion was moderated by BIPSS President Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman. Distinguished panelists included Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, former adviser at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iffat Anjum, assistant professor at the Department of International Relations in Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP), and Shafqat Munir, head of BCTR and senior research fellow at BIPSS.

Moderator of the event, Major General (Retd) Muniruzzaman started the session by emphasising the transformative changes in the international system, driven by technological advancements, shifting geopolitical alignments, and environmental challenges. He highlighted the escalating US-China rivalry as a defining feature of 2025, with implications for global stability.

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has introduced a transactional foreign policy approach that prioritises national self-interest over liberal values like democracy and human rights. This stance is expected to intensify Sino-US competition in areas such as trade, technology, and maritime security. General Muniruzzaman also pointed to the withdrawal of the US from multilateral agreements like the Paris Climate Accord, signaling a retreat from cooperative global governance.

He warned that smaller states like Bangladesh must prepare for a turbulent international environment marked by shifting alliances, protectionism, and challenges to multilateral institutions. He concluded by urging policymakers to closely monitor these developments and adapt strategies accordingly.

Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury provided an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical shifts under Trump’s second administration, which he referred to as “Trump 2.0” He outlined how this era is characterised by societal dislocations in the US, rising populism, and a transactional approach to foreign relations.

He warned of a potential miscalculation between the US and China over Taiwan, which could escalate into a major confrontation. He drew parallels between 2025 and historical periods of instability, suggesting that the current geopolitical climate mirrors the interwar years analysed in EH Carr’s "Twenty Years' Crisis."

Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury also discussed how rising nationalism and populism are eroding multilateral institutions, leading to a fragmented international order where "might is right." He highlighted three dominant schools of thought shaping international relations: Francis Fukuyama’s end of history thesis, Samuel Huntington’s clash of civilisations, and John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism. He concluded by stressing that nations must prioritise their own interests while preparing for an increasingly Hobbesian world order.

Assistant Professor Iffat Anjum focused on South Asia's economic and political landscape, describing it as being in a transitional phase marked by uncertainty. She identified key challenges facing South Asian countries, including inflation, unemployment, political instability, and climate-induced displacement.

For instance: despite being recognised as an emerging economy with a 6.4Per cent growth rate, Bangladesh faces inflationary pressures, energy shortages, and underutilisation of its demographic dividend. ‘The Modi government’s third term has brought both opportunities and challenges, including heightened tensions with Pakistan. The Taliban regime continues to grapple with legitimacy concerns. Economic crises persist under its newly elected left-leaning government.

Iffat Anjum also highlighted gender disparities in employment across South Asia and called for greater regional cooperation through platforms like SAARC to address shared challenges such as migration policies and climate-induced displacement. She emphasised that South Asia must leverage its youthful population while addressing systemic inequalities to achieve sustainable growth.

Shafqat Munir provided a comprehensive analysis of how technological advancements are reshaping geopolitics in 2025. He identified key trends such as digital sovereignty, artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy, cyber warfare, and techno-nationalism. The competition between the US and China in AI development was flagged as particularly significant for global power dynamics.

He also warned about the risks posed by non-state actors leveraging disruptive technologies for malicious purposes. He emphasised that countries like Bangladesh must prepare for these shifts by investing in technological capabilities and understanding the implications of AI on national security. Additionally, he highlighted the growing influence of tech giants on global policy-making and warned about the ethical dilemmas posed by emerging technologies like autonomous weapons and gene editing.

The roundtable concluded with an interactive session where participants delved into a vibrant discussion on the readiness of Bangladesh to face emerging global trends and the need for a strategic framework to guide its foreign policy. Panelists emphasised that social media, while a tool for national unity could also deepen divisions if not managed wisely.

They highlighted Elon Musk's revolutionary advancements in rocket science and "Muskonomics," which are reshaping global industries and economies. The conversation turned to Bangladesh’s hesitance in openly discussing its military capabilities, with suggestions that the nation should embrace transparency and chart a clear direction for its military modernisation.

The exploitation of hydrocarbons in the US was also noted as a significant driver of global energy markets, underscoring the interconnectedness of economic and geopolitical trends. A critical point of debate was whether the US views Bangladesh through the lens of India, with panelists urging Bangladesh to craft its own narrative to assert its unique identity on the global stage. This led to calls for a well-defined foreign policy framework that considers geopolitical realities while prioritising national interests.

The session concluded with an urgent appeal for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive approach in navigating these challenges, leveraging its strategic position, and fostering balanced relations with major powers. By addressing these issues with clarity and foresight, Bangladesh can better position itself as a resilient and influential player in an increasingly complex world order.