Awami League allies confused over alliance
Partners and allies of the Awami League are currently facing uncertainty regarding their participation in the 12th National Parliament election, with confusion over whether they will contest as part of a coalition or individually.
Although the ruling party has already announced candidates for 298 seats, formal discussions with the 14-party alliance and other allies have not taken place. This has led to ambiguity about whether the partners will be granted the boat symbol of the Awami League.
According to sources within the Awami League, 14-party members have received informal instructions to submit potential candidates' nominations, followed by discussions about the settlement. However, the partners are emphasising the need for consensus before proceeding.
Some leaders from participating parties have already submitted their nomination papers to the Election Commission, while others are awaiting assurances of negotiations before doing so.
Last Sunday, Awami League announced party candidates for 298 seats, excluding nominations for Kushtia-2 and Narayanganj-5 constituencies. According to several central leaders of Awami League, Hasanul Haque Inu, the president of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), has already submitted nomination papers for the Kushtia-2 seat, leading to the absence of an Awami League nominee for that constituency. In Narayanganj-5, Salim Osman is a Jatiya Party candidate, but the Awami League considers him as their own, and he may receive the boat symbol if required.
The Jatiya Party (JaPa) has been participating in every election since 2008 based on some form of compromise with the Awami League. Although the party announced candidates for 287 seats recently, it has been reported from reliable sources that no agreement has been reached yet.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina conveyed two key messages to all party nominees during a meeting at Ganobhaban last Sunday. Firstly, she emphasised that nobody should win uncontested. Secondly, she asserted that independent candidates cannot be pressurised. Subsequently, on Monday, many leaders of the Awami League who were not nominated across the country declared themselves as independent candidates.
In addition, Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader stated to reporters, "Awami League does not need any companions. A party has to adopt new strategies in new times. The party leader has undertaken the strategy necessary at this time.”
Sources from the 14-party coalition members and allies of the Awami League suggest that it will be challenging for Jatiya Party (JaPa) candidates to secure victory without an agreement with the Awami League. The 14-party partners may find it difficult to win without the boat symbol. Some individuals perceive that the Awami League is strategically applying pressure to ensure its partners are content with fewer seats than before.
Rashed Khan Menon, the president of the 14-party alliance, stated to Prothom Alo that there has been no discussion about the polls since the announcement of the schedule.
While Awami League leaders are making various statements, the Prime Minister mentioned the possibility of going to the election in a coalition. Menon added that if she declares there will be no alliance, the Workers' Party will participate in the elections independently.
On July 20, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina assured top leaders of the last 14 parties at Ganabhaban about participating in the elections as part of a coalition. However, there has been no official meeting of the leaders of the 14 parties with her since then.
Over-demanding alliance partners
Out of the 44 parties registered so far, 26 have announced their decision to participate in the upcoming elections. These include Jatiya Party (JaPa), 14-party alliance parties, some Islamist parties, and the recently registered 'King's Party'. Almost all of these parties are seeking negotiations with the ruling party to secure votes.
Sources within the Awami League suggest that this time, the alliance and allies are aiming for approximately 200 seats. However, in informal discussions, the Awami League has learned that at least 80 seats may need to be negotiated.
With the exception of JaPa, most other companions and allies desire to contest with the boat symbol. The Awami League is not inclined to concede more than 30 seats to its allies if a coalition is to be formed.
A senior leader of the Awami League informed Prothom Alo that compromising on seats in an election without BNP may result in lower voter turnout and participation. Therefore, policymakers within the Awami League are not keen on forming an alliance.
In the current parliament, the 14 parties hold eight seats. However, this time, the Awami League is reluctant to allocate more than four or five seats to them. Rashed Khan Menon, a leader of the 14 parties and president of the Workers' Party, has been a three-time member of parliament from Dhaka-8. This time, Awami League's joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim has received the party's nomination for this seat.
Sources within the Workers' Party express concerns that the nomination of a central leader like Nasim has raised fears about whether the Awami League will vacate this seat or not. The party also believes that Rashed Khan Menon may not contest elections from this seat if he does not receive the boat symbol.
Additionally, the Awami League has issued a nomination for the Rajshahi constituency where Workers' Party General Secretary Fazle Hossain Badsha was previously elected.
JSD general secretary Shirin Akhtar is a two-time member of parliament from Feni-1 cConstituency. However, Alauddin Ahmed Chowdhury Nasim, a former executive member of central Awami League, has been nominated for the seat by the Awami League this time. Consequently, individuals close to Shirin Akhtar are somewhat worried about the possibility of a compromise in this seat. The only member of parliament from the Jatiya Party (JP) is the party president Anwar Hossain Manju. Awami League has fielded a candidate for his Pirojpur-2 seat.
Tariqat Federation president Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari has served as a Member of Parliament for three consecutive terms from Chattogram-2 Constituency. This time, his cousin's son Syed Saifuddin Ahmed aspires to contest in this seat and leads the recently registered Supreme Party. However, Awami League has nominated Khadijatul Anwar for this constituency.
Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari shared with Prothom Alo that the Prime Minister has mentioned the possibility of an alliance. Now, they are eager to hear directly from the Prime Minister regarding the status of the alliance.
Samyabadi Dal General Secretary Dilip Barua is aspiring to contest for the Chatotgram-1 seat. The current Member of Parliament for this constituency is Awami League senior leader Engineer Mosharraf Hossain. However, Awami League has nominated Mosharraf Hossain's son Mahbub ur Rahman for this seat.
Despite these developments, the president of JSD, Hasanul Haque Inu, maintains a positive outlook regarding the potential for an alliance. Inu expressed to Prothom Alo that the members of Awami League and the alliance have informed the Election Commission about their intention to participate in the election with the boat symbol. He believes that the decision for the election will be based on the alliance and anticipates a meeting of the 14 parties with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina very soon.
Complications with JaPa
There are currently 23 MPs from JaPa in the parliament. According to sources within Awami League, JaPa has communicated through various channels that they must be allocated at least 40 seats in the upcoming election. The party intends to contest openly in other constituencies. However, Awami League prefers JaPa to contest the elections independently and is willing to support them by fielding relatively "weaker" candidates in seats held by JaPa's prominent leaders. Despite these discussions, there has been no formal agreement reached.
Mujibul Haque, the Secretary General of JaPa, stated to Prothom Alo that there has been no discussion about negotiations with Awami League at this time. JaPa has already announced its candidates and is gearing up for the election, emphasising the importance of a fair vote.