Ruling Awami League and its archrival BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) are facing the same disquiet centring the upcoming upazila election. Frail internal disciplines of both the parties have appeared centering this election.
Political analysts think both parties might pay the price in the long run due to this situation. Although both parties are taking the similar measure of handing out disciplinary action, the question remains as to how fruitful these measures are going to be.
The situation in ruling Awami League is particularly complex. The upazila election has exposed the extent of personal and coterie interests that have intensified so much in the party which has been in power for four terms on the trot. The party’s leadership repeatedly asked ministers and lawmakers not to interfere in the upazila elections, a call largely unheeded in the ground. Around 50 close relatives, including children and siblings of ministers-MPs, became candidates in the first phase of the elections. Other than close relatives, many lawmakers made the leaders of their choice candidates.
Effort to withdraw candidacy went in vain
The Awami League leadership has failed to keep the relatives of ministers-lawmakers away from contesting the elections except one in Natore. Abduction of a contestant in Natore’s Singra upazila was the major factor behind withdrawal of a candidate who is close relative of a state minister. Allegation of abducting a rival candidate came against state minister Junaid Ahmed Palak’s brother in law Lutful Habib. This incident put the Awami League in an uneasy position. At one point Lutful Habib was forced to withdraw his candidacy. No other relatives of a lawmaker backed away from the race.
Meanwhile, lawmaker Shajahan Khan and party’s general secretary Obaidul Quader engaged in heated exchange openly on 24 April over the issue of withdrawal of candidacy. The incident took place at the Awami League president’s office in Dhanmondi. Shajahan Khan made his son Asibur Rahman Khan a candidate in Madaripur Sadar upazila. His brother Pavelur Rahman Khan is also contesting in this upazila.
BNP’s expelled leaders have become candidates in some upazilas. But Awami League candidates are pitted against one another in most of the upazilas. The election commission also expressed its apprehension over the interference of the ministers and lawmakers. Some top leaders of both the parties acknowledged that the chain of command has become flaccid.
Is solution lies in punishment
Upazila election is a local government election which has no role in forming a government. Awami League also did not nominate any candidate officially and kept the race open. One of the main reasons behind this strategy was to minimise internal feud in the party. As BNP and many other opposition parties boycotted the last general election, Awami League opened the race for the party’s independent candidates to increase turnout. This strategy of the ruling party increased the internal rift in the party’s grassroots. Now the strategy of not nominating any candidate in the upazila polls might also become ineffective. The leaders of the party themselves have this apprehension.
Awami League said it would take organisational action to prevent chaos at the grassroots of the party. But there is a question as to how strict the party can become against the party presidium members or central leaders and lawmakers. And there is a doubt whether punishment will be enough to decrease the chaos at the grassroots level.
Former election commissioner and political analyst M Sakhawat Hossain told Prothom Alo that already there are members of 15-families at the national parliament. So preventing the relatives of the lawmakers would be difficult for Awami League.
He thinks chaos in Awami League can only increase no matter what steps it takes.
Aimless BNP
After its boycott of the last general election, BNP has also boycotted the upazila election. BNP, however, failed to prevent some of its leaders for contesting the elections. The party has already expelled its 75 members for contesting in the first phase of upazila polls. This list would surely grow bigger in the four phases of the elections.
BNP is actually failing to fathom how it should advance with the next course of action after its anti-government movement failed. This indecision also appeared in its decision-making centering the upazila elections. The BNP decided to boycott the upazila polls in the first phase at the last moment. By that time, many of its leaders had started election campaigns.
There is a discussion in the party that to what extent the BNP leadership has actually taken into account the reality of the grassroots leaders and activists. Appearing to the court has become a new normal for the party leaders and activists who have been entangled in legal cobwebs during the protracted movement. Also, there is the financial question of dealing with the cases.
The burden of cases and the frustration emanating from the failure of the movement has made a large part of the grassroots leaders inactive. But there was an opportunity for the leaders of the party to bounce back by winning in the upazila elections where the party has a strong vote bank.
BNP has been boycotting the local government elections since 2021. The party, which has been out of power for 17 years, now has no representation at any stage of the local government. This factor also has also contributed to the party's organisational weakness at the grassroots. This organisational weakness is also seen as a reason behind the BNP’s failure of the anti-government movement. Some leaders of the party acknowledge this situation.
However, if the list of expelled leaders of the party grows, BNP’s grassroots will further weaken. Some of the BNP leadership also has this feeling . Yet the top leadership of BNP clings to a stern stance.
Former election commissioner Sakhawat Hossain thinks that both Awami League and BNP may have to pay the price politically in the long term due to their stance in the upazila election.
*This report appeared on the print and online versions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Galib Ashraf