Dengue cases doubled every month from March to May

Sharmin, 21, was admitted to Barguna Sadar Hospital for six days suffering from dengue. She was discharged yesterday, Sunday. Sharmin said that almost all of the necessary items—including saline and medicines—had to be bought from outside the hospital.

Barguna Sadar Hospital has 50 beds allocated for dengue patients.

However, yesterday the number of dengue patients admitted stood at 192.

In June, the number of dengue cases has been increasing every day compared to the previous day. In the last 24 hours alone, 249 people were diagnosed with dengue, and one patient died.

From March to May this year, the number of dengue cases each month was double that of the previous month. In the first 15 days of June alone, the number of dengue cases is nearly equal to the total cases of the previous month.

Frequent rains and high humidity are exacerbating the dengue situation. A notable trend this year is that the spread of dengue is much higher outside the capital than in Dhaka itself. While there are at least some mosquito control measures in the capital, such measures are practically absent outside Dhaka. Additionally, there is a lack of adequate healthcare infrastructure in these areas. All these factors combined have made the current dengue situation alarming, according to public health expert Mushtaq Hossain. He suggests immediate action to control the outbreak.

As of yesterday, the total number of dengue cases in the country this year has reached 5,988. The increase in dengue cases began in March when 336 people were hospitalised with the disease. In April, this number rose to 701, and in May it reached 1,773. In June so far, the number has already more than doubled, standing at 1,643.

Last year, the country did not witness such a rapid doubling of dengue cases between March and June. In 2023—the worst year for dengue outbreaks—cases jumped fivefold from May to June. The major spike last year, however, began in August. Now, the rising number of dengue cases in June 2024 is again causing concern.

Does this rapid increase suggest another major dengue outbreak this year?

Nazmul Haider, a mosquito-borne disease researcher at Keele University in the UK and a Bangladeshi scientist, commented on this issue: “Looking at numbers or trends alone, it's impossible to predict for sure if dengue will spike massively. But the truth is, we’ve done almost nothing to prevent the spread of dengue nationwide. So it can’t be ruled out either.”

The Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) is also worried by the daily rise in cases. However, professor Halimur Rashid, Line Director of the Disease Control Division of DGHS, claims their role in preventing the spread of dengue is limited.  

“We are doing everything possible to control the disease. But unless mosquito breeding sources are eliminated, the spread will not stop. The breeding grounds will only increase. Controlling mosquito breeding is not in our hands; it is the responsibility of city corporations and municipalities,” he said.

So far, 23 per cent of the total dengue cases in the country have been reported in the two city corporations of Dhaka. The remaining cases are outside Dhaka. Notably, 45 per cent of the total cases in the country are from the Barishal division, and nearly one-fourth of the total cases nationwide are from Barguna district alone.

Mosquito infestations persist day and night across Barguna town. The mosquito problem does not lessen despite all measures. The pourashava has taken almost no initiative to reduce the mosquito menace, and many residents complain that the authorities remain indifferent despite the rising dengue outbreak.

Hasanur Rahman, Convener of the Barguna’s Public Policy Forum, recently told Prothom Alo that no effective measures to control dengue are visible in the town. Many areas are still waterlogged, and garbage is littered in various places.

The responsibility for mosquito control primarily lies with local government authorities. However, these institutions have remained without elected representatives for a long time. The kind of mismanagement seen in Barguna is almost widespread across the country.

Public health expert Mushtuq Husain told Prothom Alo that there are no strong initiatives for mosquito control. City corporations and local governments are currently without elected representatives.

“Even when they were present, the situation wasn’t perfect, but there was at least a minimum level of accountability. Now, those in charge are merely doing routine tasks,” he added.

Entomologists and public health experts believe that this year’s weather is highly favorable for dengue transmission. April is usually the warmest month of the year, but this April saw intermittent rainfall. According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, rainfall in May was 63 per cent higher than usual. Despite heatwaves in June, many areas are still experiencing rain, and a depression is also forecasted this month.

When the temperature stays between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius with 70 to 100 per cent humidity, it creates an ideal environment for Aedes mosquito breeding. Meteorologist Md Omar Faruk mentioned that on some days the humidity level reached 100 per cent.

Normally, it takes an Aedes mosquito five to seven days to lay eggs. But under the current conditions of rain and humidity, this period could reduce to four to five days, according to renowned entomologist Tawhid Uddin Ahmed.

He emphasised that mosquitoes must be eliminated at their breeding source—but that effort is not in place. Personnel responsible for mosquito control in city corporations and elsewhere have been focused on eliminating Culex mosquitoes for a long time. But the strategy to eliminate Aedes—the carrier of dengue—is different, and they lack the necessary knowledge.

This combination of favorable environmental conditions and poor management could make the situation especially severe this year, warned Mohammad Shafiul Alam, a scientist at the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b).

He said frequent rains followed by heat waves are creating ideal conditions for the spread of Aedes mosquitoes. The critical issue is the absence of an effective mosquito control system.

All these factors together could make the dengue situation significantly worse this time, he added.