‘Bangladesh needs diplomacy backed by deterrence to face Myanmar’

It has been two years since the present military junta in Myanmar took over power, impacting not only the country, but beyond. The consequences of the military rule in Myanmar have led to a critical and vulnerable situation in the region and Bangladesh is bearing the brunt.

Speakers at a roundtable on ‘Two Years of Military Rule in Myanmar: Ramifications for the Future’ made these observations, also emphasising that Bangladesh must pay more attention to the situation before things deteriorate to a point of no return. The roundtable held on Tuesday was organised by the think-tank Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) at a hotel in the capital city.

Moderating the roundtable, president of BIPSS, Maj. Gen. ANM Muniruzzaman  (retd), said the military takeover in Myanmar was a key strategic issue in the region, with ramifications that were no longer confined to Myanmar. “When the military took over power in Myanmar on 1 February 2021, the country went through a very difficult period in history,” he said, adding that 3000 Myanmar citizens had been brutally killed. This led to the Rohingya crisis. They fled their homeland in Rakhine to enter Bangladesh.

Other than the Rohingya refugee issue, the BIPSS president pointed out, there was the activities of the Arakan Army which had deep consequences for Bangladesh. But no struggle by any of the ethnic groups or forces has been able to unseat the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. It has high time to realise that the crisis had gone way beyond just the Rohingya issue, he pointed out.

It (Myanmar) was having to bear the brunt of the coup, sanctions, shortage of US dollars, cash shortage in banks, rise in food and commodity prices, with 40 per cent of the people living below the poverty line
Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor of economics , East West University

And now the Burma Act had been enacted by the US Congress, he pointed out. While this dealt with the issues of democracy, interestingly it also made mention of upholding the rights of ethnic groups not only in Myanmar, but in Bangladesh and Thailand too.  Bangladesh needed to take this into cognizance.

Parvez Karim Abbasi, assistant professor of economics at East West University, highlighted the economy of Myanmar, which had gone from bad to worse. It was having to bear the brunt of the coup, sanctions, shortage of US dollars, cash shortage in banks, rise in food and commodity prices, with 40 per cent of the people living below the poverty line and around 5 million children needing humanitarian assistance. “It is not a pretty picture,” said Abbasi, “But somehow Myanmar’s economy keeps ticking.” One reason could be because of the significant remittance, mostly coming from the workforce in Thailand, he said.

Significant investment also came in from China and Singapore. And, Abbasi added, “The ASEAN cocoon is blunting the sanctions.” These investments were propping up the Myanmar regime.

There are 1.2 million Rohingyas in Bangladesh. This has an impact on the economy, conflicts have sprung up with the locals, and the issue now affects the internal and external security of Bangladesh
Brig Gen M Sakhawat Hossain (retd), senior fellow, SAIPG, NSU

About the sanctions, he said, while the US, UK, the European Union were all quite vocal against the Rohingya genocide, most of the sanctions were unilateral with no coordination and riddled with loopholes. The US and EU, for example, had sanctioned all junta members, while the UK only 11 people. Also, several companies of western countries still were providing equipment to Myanmar, and the arms network helped Tatmadaw in its operations against the insurgents.

Brig Gen M Sakhawat Hossain, senior fellow, South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance, NSU, raised the question about why there has been so much discussion about Myanmar in recent times. “We are discussing this because we have a problem at hand, the Rohingya issue. We have tried diplomacy to resolve the issue, but this is not working as long as the military junta remains in power there,” he said.

In 1978 Bangladesh seamlessly repatriated 300,000 Rohingya refugees in a matter of just 14 days. At the time, Bangladesh has the military clout to do so
Brig Gen Shahidul Anam (retd), former associate editor, The Daily Star

“The critical problem for us is that there are 1.2 million Rohingyas in Bangladesh. This has an impact on the economy, conflicts have sprung up with the locals, and the issue now affects the internal and external security of Bangladesh.”  

Any credible foreign policy must be backed by deterrence. There must be an integrated political stand. Dysfunctional politics is not a help
Maj Gen Muniruzzaman, president, BIPSS

However, he added, for China, Myanmar is the eastern anchor of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India is investing around USD 500 million in the Kaladan project. So they have vital interests in Myanmar.

Coming to possible positives, he pointed out that the National Unity Government (NUG) were saying that the Rohingya are their people and they will take them back once they achieved their aim. Also, the question now arose as to whether the US’ Burma Act created any hope for us. The act purportedly expressed support for the people of Myanmar and the return to democracy.

Brig Gen Shahidul Anam (retd), former associate editor of The Daily Star, said it has been two years into military rule and it was still business as usual for Myanmar. It really had no concern about international opinion. It has support from China and India. India even provided Myanmar with a submarine free of cost, he mentioned, as an indication of the state of relations between these countries. Reiterating the views of the previous speakers, he said that China depends heavily in Myanmar and so would not turn away.

As for Bangladesh, Brig Gen Shahedul Anam (retd) asked, “Have we used our strategic assets? Have we used our diplomacy?” He pointed out that in 1978 Bangladesh seamlessly repatriated 300,000 Rohingya refugees in a matter of just 14 days. “At the time, Bangladesh has the military clout to do so,” he said, adding that “diplomacy must be supported by military clout.”

“Global action has failed against Myanmar. ASEAN, China and Russia are not willing to take action. Myanmar has more strategic weapons that Bangladesh,” he said. But, he added, “We have to develop our own clout. After all, accommodating the Rohingya in our society is not an option, sending them to a third country is not an option, that simply justifies the genocide.”

Winding up the discussions, Maj Gen Muniruzzaman said that while Bangladesh must deal with the problem diplomatically, “any credible foreign  policy must be backed by deterrence. There must be an integrated political stand. Dysfunctional politics is not a help.”

He said that we must be critical of our own polices too. After all, “the Rohingyas did not fall from the sky, but we did not take note. Now we have to leverage our strategic assets. Unless we play our cards right, the consequences can be disastrous.”