Gold price expected to surpass $7,000 this year

Analysts expect spot gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday, to climb further toward $6,000 this year ​on mounting global tensions as well as strong central-bank and retail demand.

Gold raced to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled markets. ‌The safe-haven metal is up more than 17% this year, after soaring 64% in 2025.

The London Bullion Market Association's annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900.

Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375.

"The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands," Norman said.

Gold's recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, ‌from the U.S.–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, among others.

"With the upcoming US ​mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold," said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus.

"After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside," he added.

Central-bank gold buying, a key driver of prices in ‍2025, is expected to stay strong this year.

Goldman Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold.

Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month.

These plans reaffirm the view that the key driver behind the spike in gold is ⁠central banks "looking to de-dollarise ... and where else could you go except into gold?" Norman said.

China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December.

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which store bullion for investors and account for a significant amount of investment demand for the metal, are also underpinning prices as markets expect ‌further U.S. ‌rate cuts this year.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.