IMF questions delay in inflation data release

The visiting delegation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a meeting with the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) on Tuesday, has asked why there had been a delay in releasing the inflation data of August.

The BBS officials put the blame on the delay in receiving field level data and approval of the policymakers for the scenario. The global lender also suggested reforms in the calculation method of inflation and gross domestic product (GDP).

The IMF team, led by its Asia and Pacific division chief Rahul Anand, held the meeting with the BBS at the latter’s office in the capital’s Agargaon area. BBS director general Matiar Rahman and other senior officials attended the meeting.

All commodity prices shot up soon after the rise in the prices of fuel oils in the first week of August. The transport fares also followed suit. The economists feared a high inflation rate in the month due to the unprecedented hike in fuel price.

Following that BBS did not release the inflation data at that month. Rather, it published the data of August and September the following month in October.

Bangladesh registered the highest inflation rate – 9.52 per cent – in 11 years in August while the figure declined slightly to 9.1 per cent in September. Earlier in May, 2011, the inflation rate was recorded at 10.20 per cent.

Matiar Rahman, director general of the BBS, told Prothom Alo, “The IMF delegation sought to know why there was a delay in publishing the inflation data for the month of August?”

I told them in response that we were yet to receive the field level data. Also, it took time to get approval from the policymakers. Now the inflation data is being released regularly,” he explained.

In the meeting, the IMF suggested reforms in the inflation calculation method. Currently, the authorities consider 2005-2006 as the base year for calculating inflation data. The IMF asked to change the method and count 2015-16 as the base year instead.

The authorities generally change the base year after few years to ascertain the real picture of inflation. But it has not been updated here for more than 10 years.

The picture of food and non-food commodity consumption changes with he time. People's food habits change, and so do their lifestyle. An updated base year helps ascertain the real trend of public expenses.

The statistics bureau now publishes the GDP data twice in a fiscal year – a half-yearly provisional data and a final data at the yearend. The IMF suggested publishing the GDP figures after every three months.

The delegation asked whether it is possible to release the GDP data after every three months as per the best international practice. They said a quarterly calculation reflects the actual state of GDP. The IMF may help the BBS enhance its capacity to implement these reforms in GDP calculation.

The BBS officials said they have already started the process to calculate GDP on a quarterly basis. The officials concerned are being trained up and the government will be informed once the BBS is ready to release the quarterly GDP data. They, however, are planning to publish quarterly GDP data from the next fiscal.

Meanwhile, the IMF team held a meeting with Bangladesh Bank (BB) on 30 and 31 October and suggested adjusting the monetary policy four times in a year. The BB officials said that they do not have enough data in this regard due to the yearly calculation of GDP.