'Indo-Pacific region may become a hotbed for conflict'

The Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly contested by big power politics, with the US and the West on one side vs. China and its allies on the other. It has a host of both traditional and non-traditional security challenges.

This observation was made by the president of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Maj. Gen ANM Muniruzzaman, at a recent expert roundtable on “Maritime Security Challenges in the Indo-Pacific” organised by BIPSS in the capital city. The keynote speaker for the event was Dr. David Brewster, Senior Research Fellow, National Security College, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.

In his introductory presentation as moderator of the discussion, General Muniruzzaman highlighted some of the traditional security challenges such as growing tension between various actors in the maritime space, and non-traditional security challenges like piracy, human trafficking and climate change, that have been manifested within this maritime space. The Indo-Pacific region is of particular importance to Bangladesh due to its strategic realities, he added.

Dr. Sacha Blueman, First Secretary, Australian High Commission, highlighted the growing importance of the region and the evolving defence cooperation between Bangladesh and Australia.

Keynote speaker of the event, Dr. David Brewtser, pointed to the varying degrees of traditional and non-traditional security threats and the reciprocal relationship between these two. He went into the crux of the issues and the underlying dynamics associated with the region. Indo-Pacific is built on international trade. It is heavily reliant on commerce and on input that comes from the seas, including oil from the Gulf. Any kind of disruption may have catastrophic implications globally, a possibility that seems all too real in the current world order.

Two other major maritime spaces within this region are the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean and China’s attempts to claim the entirety of the entire South China Sea has led to incessant growing tensions in the region. The great majority of countries in the region have a strong dependence on the water bodies and the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCS) within and disturbances and disruptions in these areas would have consequences on a major scale. So, (SLOCS) protection is of paramount importance. He also discussed the ongoing 'Malacca dilemma', the unpredictability of navigation and the major extent to which the threat is brewing up in the maritime space.

A major security threat in the region has been piracy, which has also brought all countries together to stop this particular threat. Over the years there has been a massive drop of piracy.

Indian Ocean has also been one of the least governed maritime regions in the globe and despite the arbitrary introduction of maritime borders, causing the region to be subjected to a number of criminal activities such as IUU fishing, human trafficking, drug trafficking etc. This has given rise to the need for a well-articulated governance structure in the region.

Another major challenge in the forefront is climate change. The region is prone to a number of dangers introduced by climate change, even on an existential level, further introducing consequences such as economic dislocation, political instability, social dislocation and growing sense of disconnect, discomfort and militancy among communities.

In an extensive discussion on the subject matter after the presentation by Dr. Brewster, interesting questions and comments were made. General Munir raised the question concerning the achievement of an operational cooperation between the actors in the region. The other panelists also raised their concerns regarding the possibility of conflict and whether the region might become a hotbed for such conflict in the near future. The session ended with the panelists and the guests.

Key takeaway points of the roundtable

1.      There is a reciprocal relationship between traditional and non-traditional security threats, and any deterioration concerning one aspect can significantly exacerbate the other.

2.      The oceanic bodies in the Indo-Pacific region are crucial towards preserving and sustaining the economic and energy requirements of all the littoral regions. Disruptions caused by any actors or events will have major repercussions.

3.      Climate change is an existential threat looming over the region, with a potential to introduce a number. 

Recommendations

1.      A well-articulated governance and structure, including the participation of all the relevant actors is of utmost importance.

2.      State to state consensus to ensure operational cooperation is required in the region.

3.      Institutions such as IORA ought to be reinvigorated to ensure further economic integrations and cooperation within the region 

4.      Climate change should be considered as global challenge rather than a local phenomenon

and the policy making community should come up with solution that can meet these global impediments.

5.      The international stakeholders, starting from states, non-state actors, NGOs, military

institutions, civil society need to come together on the same table and devise policies and

laws that are liable of implication and can be practiced not only at national but global

circumstances to ensure control over effects from climate change.

Mechanisms to combat the dangers stemming from economic and social dislocations have to be formulated to ensure the sustenance of peace and security in the region.