What's at stake as India-Pakistan tensions rise in Kashmir

India and Pakistan appear closer to the brink of conflict after New Delhi launched a wave of missile strikes overnight, targeting what it said were terrorist camps deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The strikes, which India dubbed "Operation Sindoor," hit multiple locations including Bahawalpur and Muridke, and reportedly killed dozens of militants. Pakistan condemned the action as an "act of war," saying it had caused civilian casualties and put its military on high alert.

The attacks were in retaliation for a brutal assault on 22 April in Indian-administered Kashmir, where militants killed at least 26 Indian tourists and wounded dozens more — the deadliest civilian attack in the region in years. India blamed Pakistan for backing the militant group perpetrating the attack.

Few regions on earth are as densely militarized and persistently volatile as Kashmir. Cradled in the Himalayas and bordered by three nuclear powers — India, Pakistan, and China — the disputed territory has long been a flashpoint for regional rivalries and unresolved territorial claims.

Spanning roughly 85,800 square miles (222,200 square kilometers), the Kashmir region is divided among India, Pakistan, and China — but claimed in full by both India and Pakistan. The region is home to roughly 20 million people — with an estimated 14.5  million living in India-administered territory, about 6 million in Pakistan-administered territory, and less than a few thousand in China-administered territory — and sits at a confluence of critical strategic, economic, and religious interests.

The modern history of Kashmir's conflict dates back to 1947, when British India was partitioned into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. What today constitutes the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir — part of the wider region of Kashmir — was at the time ruled by the Hindu maharaja Hari Singh, who initially declined to join either country.
That changed after Pakistani guerrilla fighters attempted to seize the region and topple him. The result was the first India-Pakistan war, as the maharaja sought India's help to ward off the invaders and in return acceded his princely state to New Delhi — reinforcing a de-facto division of Kashmir that still holds.

Today, India controls the most populous portion of the region, which includes the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh. Pakistan holds parts of northern Kashmir, including Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan. China, meanwhile, administers the sparsely populated Aksai Chin region in the northeast, which India also lays claim to, and Shaksgam Valley, where Indian does not acknowledge Chinese control.

Pakistan’s claim to Kashmir is rooted, among other things, in the assertion that the region, with its Muslim majority, should have become part of Pakistan at the time of partition. India, in contrast, maintains that the 1947 Instrument of Accession signed by Hari Singh makes India's claim to the territory legitimate and final. But legal scholars dispute this, and call the validity of a document signed under duress into question.
The disagreement has fueled multiple wars, insurgencies and decades of diplomatic hostility.

While India and Pakistan dominate the Kashmir narrative, China also holds a strategic piece of the puzzle — and has now entered the conversation with a warning of its own. In response to India's overnight strikes, Beijing urged both countries to exercise "maximum restraint" and called for an immediate de-escalation, expressing concern that further conflict could destabilize the broader region. A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry reiterated Beijing’s position that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected, signaling unease over India’s cross-border operations.

In the northeastern part of the region, Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin are administered by China but claimed by India. While Shaksgam Valley is barely inhabited due to its harsh terrain, the area of Aksai Chin is crucial for Beijing’s overland connectivity between Tibet and the western region of Xinjiang.

China established control over Aksai Chin in the 1950s by constructing a strategic highway linking Xinjiang and Tibet, a route that ran through territory claimed by India. India objected to the Chinese presence in the area, and tensions escalated into the brief but intense Sino-Indian War of 1962. After a brief conflict, China retained control of Aksai Chin and has administered it ever since. In recent years, Beijing has expanded its military presence along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) meant to demarcate the border between China and India, leading to frequent standoffs between troops on either side.

The region’s importance to China is not just strategic, but also economic. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, runs through Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan. That makes the stability of Kashmir a matter of financial, not just geopolitical, concern for Beijing.

A Buddhist monastery located in the remote Lungnak Valley in south-eastern Zanskar, in the Himalayan region of Ladakh, in northern IndiaA Buddhist monastery located in the remote Lungnak Valley in south-eastern Zanskar, in the Himalayan region of Ladakh, in northern India

India is believed to maintain more than 750,000 troops across Jammu and Kashmir, primarily concentrated in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. Pakistan, for its part, stations as many as 120,000 security personell along the Line of Control (LoC) separating its administered regions from India, including specialized forces like the Mujahid Force, and 230,000 troops in the region.

Both sides accuse the other of exaggerating their respective deployments, and neither publishes precise figures. However, analysts agree that the region's military density, particularly in relation to its civilian population, rivals or exceeds that of the Korean Peninsula.

Insurgent groups add another layer of complexity. Armed insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir, which began in the late 1980s, has been sustained by a mix of local discontent and external support. India accuses Pakistan of backing militant groups, an allegation Islamabad denies.

Over the decades, groups such as Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have carried out attacks in the region.

What happens next will depend largely on how India and Pakistan manage the diplomatic and military fallout in the coming days. So far, both sides appear to be engaging in calibrated escalation: India has limited its strikes to non-military targets and avoided airspace violations, while Pakistan has responded with artillery fire and claims of shooting down Indian jets — but has not yet launched its own offensive strikes.

However, experts say the situation might remain dangerously volatile. With both governments under intense domestic pressure to appear strong and decisive, especially in the wake of deadly attacks and rising nationalism, the potential for miscalculation is significant.