Bangladesh is at a pivotal moment in its history, transitioning from quasi-authoritarian rule to an anticipated functional democracy. The recent uprising and the supreme sacrifices made by thousands of individuals led to the removal of the Awami League's fifteen-year regime, paving the way for an interim government led by Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus to fulfill the promises of change. The world has noticed how fast the public has risen to topple a fifteen-year-old Awami League in power. Despite its challenges, this transition is fueled by the passion and active participation of the younger generation and the wider public.
The July 2024 movement reflects the collective desire of the people to position Bangladesh as a confident nation, both domestically and on the global stage. Dr. Yunus, a highly esteemed figure worldwide, embodies the spirit of Bangladesh. His assumption of leadership has reignited global interest and enthusiasm in Bangladesh. The substantial support from the multilateral agencies and international community, particularly from the Western bloc, China, and significant economic powers in the East, such as Malaysia, Japan, and Korea, is a testament to the global confidence in Bangladesh's reform initiative and recognition to the changes that the public wants to see.
As Bangladesh continues to attract global attention, the responsibilities confronting the government and political parties as they engage in the democratic process are increasingly complex and challenging. The primary goal of the interim government is to ensure a smooth election process, a commitment that should instill confidence in the democratic transition. Dr. Yunus's administration must implement electoral reforms and secure global support for the transition to democracy. Foreign policy will require a comprehensive revision to sustain the reform efforts beyond the interim government's term and protect Bangladesh's national interests.
It's important to understand that foreign policy is no longer just a matter of high-level politics; with advancing technologies, it has become a subject of public scrutiny. In the post-July 2024 movement, public perception has become a critical influencer in foreign policy decisions toward the US, China, and India. The events of the July 2024 movement have emphasized a radical shift in our foreign policy. It necessitates a proactive foreign policy, constructive narratives that reflect our national interests, and a national consensus, regardless of political affiliations.
So, what should we reform in foreign policy then?
The key reform should be rooted in narratives. Bangladesh upholds multilateralism and is dedicated to international trade. That’s not enough. Article 25 of its constitution mandates support for oppressed populations, regardless of their political, racial, religious, or ethnic affiliations. Our foreign policy narratives must confidently articulate objectives and advocate for global humanitarian concerns, whether regional or extra-regional. This necessitates clearly articulating national sovereignty to establish boundaries for external actors influencing domestic politics and national security priorities. But here is a caveat – the narratives will only be compelling if a good government is at home.
The reform should include a well-defined and cohesive foreign policy. The government should have four key international goals aligned with a practical foreign policy approach. Firstly, the two major power blocs—the US and China—will inevitably seek to maintain a geopolitical balance of power. Therefore, Bangladesh's strategy should prioritize maximizing national interests while maintaining a delicate balancing act based on mercantile liberalism. Undoubtedly, the Bay of Bengal, as the middle sea in the Indo-Pacific region, exposes Bangladesh to ongoing geostrategic complexities.
Second, bilateral engagements would require Machiavellian realism to be on the center stage. Multilateralism, the cornerstone of Bangladesh’s foreign policy, requires a shift from idealism to pragmatism based on global humanitarianism and domestic human security interests. Built on the spirit of the 1971 liberation war and the constitutional obligation, standing for fair and equitable international affairs and resolving disputes through international mechanisms is imperative. This should be the case in bilateral relations with the countries Bangladesh shares borders with.
Third, our Indo-Pacific Outlook needs to be broadened, and the issues with Myanmar must be addressed pragmatically. While Japan, Korea, and the Southeastern countries will be critical to Bangladesh’s economy and connectivity, it is crucial to design clear foreign and coordinated strategic policies to stabilize Myanmar in collaboration with the international community, Rakhine stakeholders, Rohingyas, and the political actors in Myanmar. Bangladesh and Myanmar have a successful history of repatriating the Rohingyas in 1978-79 and 1991-92. Therefore, Bangladesh must demonstrate a Myanmar policy based on national strategic considerations rather than being influenced by the interests of third countries.
No foreign policy—no matter how ingenious—has any chance of success if it is born in the minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none.Henry Kissinger, American diplomat and political scientist
Bangladesh needs to design a comprehensive South Asia policy with a primary focus on India. Bangladesh's approach towards India should be based on transparent trade and investment principles and international law and norms rather than overemphasizing political and security concerns. Bangladesh is crucial in ensuring the external security of India's northeastern region, the Bay of Bengal, minority issues, and even its domestic politics. Therefore, the focus should be on the potential impact of Indian instability on Bangladesh. I have no hesitation in saying that our political community has much to learn from India's strong partisan consensus and unified media stance on foreign policy to protect their national interest.
Where do we go from here?
Bangladesh needs to adapt its foreign policy approach considering the public sentiment demonstrated during and post-July 2024 movement. To embody the spirit of a confident nation, the country requires diplomats, negotiators, defense strategists, and politicians who are merit-based, innovative, and courageous. It is undeniable that rapid advancements in AI and technology are reshaping societies, and diplomacy is no exception. The Rohingyas or Ukraine and Palestine are classic reminders that the intertwining of social, religious, cultural, or language is not a guarantee of protection from the neighboring states.
Factors such as interest groups, demographic divisions, resource nationalism, trade protectionism, energy supply lines, technology disparities, political populism, labor migration, misinformation, disinformation, climate, water, and health crises will continue to present significant challenges. It's important to note that as we see religious far-right narratives rising across the world, foreign policy should weigh costs and benefits rather than be driven by theology.
As a result, the current tasks differ significantly from those of the past. My conversation with senior diplomats reminds me that our foreign policy objective should be to strive for strategic autonomy in our decisions. Coordinating foreign policy still presents a significant challenge that has troubled the foreign ministry for decades. Additionally, foreign policy accountability needs to be more noticed, as evidenced by the rare discussions of the constitutional articles 145 and 145A within the policy domain.
It is crucial to recognize that a strong national consensus will be essential for advancing significant foreign policy in the coming years. It's important to remember that our primary foreign policy challenge arises from political divisions at home. Henry Kissinger once ironically remarked, "No foreign policy—no matter how ingenious—has any chance of success if it is born in the minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none." This serves as a poignant reminder.
* Professor Shahab Enam Khan, Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University