The Mecca Agreement will create military and economic opportunities for us

Fazle Elahi Akbar: To understand the context of this agreement, it is necessary to go back in history. Since the beginning of the Ottoman Empire’s decline after World War I, Western powers have sought to keep the Muslim world divided by keeping the Shia-Sunni conflict in focus. For the past 150 years, this artificial division has sustained conflict between the Sunni bloc led by Saudi Arabia and the Shia bloc centered on Iran, Iraq, and Syria. To counter the challenge posed by the Shia bloc, the United States emerged as a “security umbrella” for the Gulf states and, in return, established a series of military bases across the Middle East.

However, the conventional understanding of warfare has changed in recent times. Despite putting immense pressure on Iran, neither the United States nor Israel has been able to defeat Iran militarily. During this war, countries in the Middle East came to realize that the United States could not ensure their genuine security. Against this backdrop, a common ground emerged between the thinking of both the Shia and Sunni sides. Iran made it clear that it had no fundamental hostility toward the Arab countries; rather, the presence of foreign military bases in Arab countries was the root cause of the conflict.

The Mecca Agreement emerged from this mutual understanding and the guarantee of security for the GCC countries. Although it is currently at an early stage, it has given rise to a new concept. It is essentially a defensive alliance, rather than an offensive one like NATO. Its principal objective is to protect member states through mutual assistance if any one of them comes under attack.

There are geopolitical reasons behind the participation of the three countries involved. First, all three are predominantly Sunni and possess strong military foundations. Despite being NATO members, Turkey is seeking an alternative alliance because of uncertainty over whether it would receive collective security assistance (under Article 5) in times of danger. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has refrained from signing the Abraham Accords despite considerable pressure. It believes that if Iran loses its power, Israel could become a threat to Saudi Arabia itself in the future. Pakistan’s inclusion in this alliance is primarily due to its nuclear capability, extensive experience in warfare, and advanced air-defense capabilities. Ultimately, the convergence of these three countries’ own capabilities and geopolitical interests is the driving force behind the Mecca Agreement.

Fazle Elahi Akbar: First, there is our geographical position and its limitations. Bangladesh is a small, densely populated country, and it has no Muslim neighbors. Since we lack mountains or deserts that could naturally provide protection, our “strategic depth” is extremely limited. If a war were to break out, we would not have much of an advantage because our supply system is heavily dependent on the outside world. While neighboring countries are trying to become self-reliant in defense, our capabilities in this area are very limited.

Second, despite following a diplomatic policy of supporting world peace for the past 55 years, we have no genuine ally today who would stand by us selflessly in a crisis. There is not even a permanent member of the UN Security Council that would stand up for us. As a result of pursuing the policy of “friendship with all,” we have, in reality, no true friends. Consequently, we have found ourselves in a state of global isolation and uncertainty.

Third, there is the regional context and India’s role. The main reason behind the interest of ordinary Bangladeshis in the Mecca Agreement is essentially India’s attitude. Repeated threats and derogatory statements from the Indian media, social media, and political leaders have created a profound sense of insecurity in Bangladesh. Despite years of efforts to maintain friendly relations, this hostile behavior has made it imperative for Bangladesh to seek a new “security umbrella” to protect its sovereignty.

Fazle Elahi Akbar: Yes, this is certainly the first time we are in the process of becoming part of a defence alliance. However, in my view, the scope of this agreement is not limited to military protection. When efforts are made to develop the states covered by an agreement into effective partners, their standard of living and economic capacity must also be raised to a certain level.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are currently at the center of the Mecca Agreement, as well as countries interested in joining in the future, are extremely prosperous economically. If we are able to gain membership in this alliance, it will open the door to significant cooperation in strengthening our economic capacity as a member of the alliance. Alongside national security, this agreement would also present a unique opportunity for Bangladesh’s economic development.

Fazle Elahi Akbar: We must remember that we are an independent and sovereign state. We have the full right to decide what is in our own interests. The current government’s policy is also “Bangladesh First.” As a neighbor, India may certainly express its concerns, but the final decision will be ours. What we need is national unity and solidarity. If that can be ensured, there is no reason to be unsettled by any threat.

Fazle Elahi Akbar: The process of deciding whether to join an alliance is extremely important. Although details of many agreements with neighboring countries have been kept secret in the past, there is no scope for secrecy on an issue as significant as the Mecca Agreement. Every term and provision of the agreement must be thoroughly scrutinized. The decision should be made through consultations with Parliament, political parties, and all stakeholders, and on the basis of national consensus. In a democracy, the people are the ultimate source of power, so this strategic step should be taken only after ensuring an accurate reflection of public opinion.