Prothom Alo :
What global realities have influenced the signing of the 'Mecca Joint Defence Agreement'?
M Humayun Kabir: The geopolitical context of the Mecca Agreement can primarily be divided into two main parts. The immediate cause is the current Iran crisis and the 'security vacuum' created by the activities of the United States and Israel in the Middle East.
After the Iranian revolution, an undeclared strategic security ring, led by the US and Israel and incorporating Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, was formed to exert pressure on Iran in the Middle East. Its aim was to shield other Middle Eastern countries from the revolution's impact.
The recent attacks on American bases during the Iran war have created uncertainty around conventional security, prompting US allies to seek alternative measures. As a new security initiative, Saudi Arabia signed a major defence agreement with Pakistan in September 2025. Meanwhile, NATO member Turkey, under the continuous threat from Israel, is unable to fully trust NATO, prompting them to consider joining a new defence framework.
The dominance of the Petrodollar, the US's unconditional support for Israel, atrocities in Gaza, and agreements like the Abraham Accords have fundamentally altered the equation in the Middle East. This changing situation and the consideration of how to fill the void if the US reduces its strength in the Middle East led to the emergence of the Mecca Agreement.
However, the Mecca Agreement is not yet a complete system; it is a 'partial security framework'. In short, the Mecca Agreement has been accelerated to counter Iran's growing influence and consolidate its participants in the face of the US's uncertain role.
Bangladesh maintains close ties with both China and the United States. Will the Mecca Agreement complicate our international relations?
M Humayun Kabir: It's difficult to say for sure. In recent times, China's diplomatic position has been particularly significant. During the Iran crisis, we saw China primarily siding with Iran. Also, in 2023, China played a crucial role in establishing a historic understanding between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China, like the US, would not favour any political instability, division, or conflict in Bangladesh that might counter its business interests. Similarly, the US also desires long-term stability in Bangladesh. A peaceful environment in Bangladesh that allows for unhindered business development would safeguard both economic welfare for the general public and US commercial interests.
Overall, analysis suggests that both China and the US, as major powers, are likely to support maintaining Bangladesh's current balanced foreign policy approach.
Why has the Mecca Agreement become significant for Bangladesh?
M Humayun Kabir: Two perspectives primarily drive the interest in this agreement in Bangladesh. First, since it is the 'Mecca Agreement,' there is a tendency to associate it with a religious interpretation and sentiment. The argument is that being part of such an alliance will enhance internal cohesion among Muslim countries and strengthen national security.
Second, in many discussions, the current strained relationship between Bangladesh and India and regional security are significant. Given India's status as a large neighbour and existing diplomatic tensions, many harbour security-related concerns. Joining such a defence alliance is seen by many as a way to better manage potential security risks or concerns.
Prothom Alo :
How do you perceive Bangladesh's positive attitude toward joining a defence alliance for the first time?
M Humayun Kabir: Since Bangladesh's independence, we have never participated in any military alliance. Even without explicit UN approval, we have never engaged in international military or peacekeeping missions. Despite various political changes over time, Bangladesh has never deviated from its neutral foreign policy. Joining such a military alliance would be a fundamental change to our long-established security and diplomatic framework, requiring considerable prudence and caution.
Secondly, the current government's declared foreign policy emphasises 'Bangladesh First'. The foundation of this policy is to maintain balanced relations with all, ensuring national interests without leaning toward any particular power. If Bangladesh joins this new military alliance, it could call the government's neutral stance into question. Therefore, before making a final decision, it is crucial to thoroughly analyse the alignment of this with our long-standing national consensus and the current government's own foreign policy.
What are the potential risks and benefits of joining this alliance?
M Humayun Kabir: When discussing the possible benefits of this agreement, the foremost considerations are military and technological cooperation. Additionally, there is the prospect of financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and increased benefits for our massive labour market in the Middle East.
However, the risks are equally significant. First, the Middle East has been an extreme conflict zone for decades, and Bangladesh has historically remained outside it. Joining this alliance increases the risk of becoming directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Secondly, if this alliance is viewed as a 'Sunni alliance', Bangladesh's existing friendly relations with countries of other sects may face challenges.
Thirdly, there could be a negative impact on our foreign trade. The primary route for Bangladesh's garment exports is the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, currently influenced by Yemen's Houthis, with ongoing conflict with Saudi Arabia. Directly joining this alliance could make Bangladesh a target for the Houthis.
The crucial aspect is that we currently maintain successful bilateral military and diplomatic relations with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. The benefits we enjoy bilaterally can be maintained without joining this agreement, with no risk involved. Therefore, we must consider whether to stay risk-free through bilateral relations or join an alliance and face new challenges.
There seems to be a strong reaction from India regarding Bangladesh's potential involvement in this agreement. How should Bangladesh view India's concerns?
M Humayun Kabir: India's behaviour or reaction is their own concern. Our decisions should be made entirely based on our national interests. Although the discussions of this agreement are currently limited to security, one of the main pillars of national interest is economic prosperity. Our economy is closely tied to China, India, the United States, the European Union, and Southeast Asian countries; maintaining this balance is crucial for us.
Prothom Alo :
What should be the process for making a decision regarding joining any defence alliance?
M Humayun Kabir: For such significant decisions, the necessity of a discussion in the national parliament is undeniable. Outside of parliament, it's also important to have detailed discussions with civil society, the media, various research institutes, and experienced diplomats. This should not merely be an internal government decision; instead, an open and transparent process involving input from all stakeholders is necessary.
Prothom Alo :
Thank you.
M Humayun Kabir: Thank you.