Maj General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd) is a former army officer, a security analyst and the president of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS). In an interview with Prothom Alo, he talks about the operations of the Myanmar army along the border, border violations, Myanmar's internal situation, rebellion, the activities of the separationists, the Arakan-centric geopolitical situation, Rohingya problems and the Bangladesh predicament.
Q :
Are the occurrences along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border an instigation on the part of Myanmar, or is it a part of their efforts to bring the rebellions in their country under control?
The main group carrying out the insurgent activities within the Rakhine state of Myanmar, is the Arakan Army. In recent times the Arakan Army has consolidated its strength in Rakhine. Influence and support for the Arakan Army has grown among the communities there. They have gained strength both politically and militarily. Given this situation, the Myanmar army, Tatmadaw, has taken up a strong operation against the Arakan Army. Shells have been coming into Bangladesh territory and there have been deaths too. It is not acceptable that they fire shells into the neighbouring country in their operation against their own country's insurgents. But it still does not seem that they are doing this to instigate Bangladesh in any way.
Q :
There is a sort of recklessness in the way that Myanmar is dealing with the rebels or insurgents along the border with Bangladesh. They are not bothered whether the border is being violated or not. Are they trying to give Bangladesh some sort of message?
Certain matters must be taken into consideration when carrying out any operation along an international border. The other country's independence and sovereignty is involved and this must be respected. But the manner in which the Myanmar army is carrying out its operations in the Rakhine state, they are not displaying this respect. Neither are they really bothered about international norms. From the manner of their operations it seems that they do not have much regard for Bangladesh's capacity. Perhaps by carrying out these operations in this manner, they are assessing Bangladesh's attitude. Perhaps they want to assess how Bangladesh may react or respond if they carry out operations on a larger scale in the future.
Q :
Why has the Arakan Army suddenly become so active in the Rakhine state?
The Arakan Army is the military wing of the United League of Arakan. They began their activities in 2009 in the Kachin state and took training from the Kachin Independent Army there. They then gradually strengthened their independence movement. They set up base at the Paletwa region along the India-Bangladesh border and carried out their operations. Under the leadership of Major General Twan Mrat Naing, this army has increased its capacity in recent times. This force calls for the self-determination of the Rakhine people, their right to live their lives as they want and the establishment of an independent Rakhine state. They are carrying out their armed struggle to this end. As the Arakan Army in recent times has strengthened its political and military position in the Rakhine state, the Myanmar army authorities have launched an all-out attack on them.
Q :
The Arakan Army has become quite strong. Who are behind them? Where are they getting their arms and financial support from?
It is still not clear from which country or group the Arakan Army is receiving support and assistance.
Q :
International sources say that various active ethnic armed rebels and insurgents in Myanmar have become stronger than before. Areas under their control are expanding. The army is losing hold in several places around the country. Is that how things are?
After the Myanmar army overthrew the Suu Kyi government on 1 February 2021 and took over power, the insurgent groups there stepped up their operations and activities. They are gaining ground in their fight against the army. Kachin Independent Army (KIA) has already managed to capture quite a few Tatmadaw installations. The Karen Union is fighting for the self-determination of the Karen people. Their position in the Karen region is stronger than before. The army has lost its stronghold. Chinland Defence Force (CDF) and Chin National Defence Force (CNDF) have recently reached an understanding with the big organisation Chin National Army there. The various separationist groups are consolidating cooperation among each other in order to oust the Tatmadaw. And the general people, those opposed to military rule, are also getting involved with the various rebel and separationist groups and joining the anti-government struggle. However, the situation hasn't reached a point where it can be said that Tatmadaw has lost control over Myanmar in a major sense.
Q :
Other than the ethnic armed forces and rebel groups, Aung San Suu Kyi's party that was ousted by the Myanmar army, has also taken up armed struggle against the government. They have formed a counter National Unity Government. How do you see the prevailing civil war in Myanmar?
We note that the people of Myanmar have mobilised a strong resistance after the Myanmar army took over power by means of the coup and sent the elected leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi to jail. There is bloodshed and battle all over. The army has taken a firm stand to quell these uprisings. A People's Defence Force or PDF has been created to resist the army. They are active all over the country. This can be called the preliminary stages of a civil war. But PDF's success is nothing significant. They have failed to maintain their unity throughout the country. They may have manpower and supporters, but lack in arms and ammunition. So the situation in Myanmar at present is not a full-blown civil war as yet.
Q :
Myanmar has been under strict military rule for a long time. It is nothing new there. But would you call the resistance against the army now, after it took over power, unprecedented? Are the people of Myanmar no longer willing to accept army rule?
Army rule is nothing new to the people of Myanmar. While it is true that the people there have long been under military rule, the light of democracy had begun shine after an elected government was established there through a free election. The people after long got the taste of democracy and civic freedom. One thing rapidly took place there during the democratic rule and that was the flourishing of civil society. Communication with the outside world increased. This achievement in such a short time during the democratic government was quite striking. So when the Myanmar army took over power again, the people did not accept it. They were no longer willing to simply accept it as in the past. Despite much loss of lives and property, they have still resisted army rule and are continuing to do so.
Q :
With violence and conflict prevailing in Myanmar and its economy facing stiff challenges, what is the future of the country? What impact could there be in the surrounding countries, particularly in Bangladesh?
Myanmar's economic situation is weak and fragile, but it has not collapsed. They are trying to overcome the economic pressure they had faced during Covid. The various sanctions imposed on them at an international level after military rule, has made it hard for them to keep up their economy. But it must be kept in mind that Myanmar is a country replete with resources and have many essential resources with which they can run themselves. The fresh sanctions on Myanmar are nothing new to the country. They have already spent four decades under sanctions in the past and have the experience of how to survive in such circumstances. They are using that to try and tackle the present circumstances. Taking the Ukraine war situation into consideration, the World Bank predicts a 3 per cent growth for Myanmar next year. While it is under pressure somewhat where energy and food is concerned, Myanmar is not facing any major economic threat. The country hasn't collapsed economically and so there is no scope for economic refugees. Nothing like that is likely to happen any time soon.
Q :
Our columnist Altaf Parvez has quoted the Arakan Army in one of his columns. The Arakan Army said that if the Rohingyas are to be sent back there, the Arakan Army will first have to be recognised and then they can hold talks. That means the Rohingya repatriation issue has become all the more complex. What do you say?
The Arakan Army has taken a stern stance. They have established their control in many areas there. There are several areas where their administration has been established and they are even collecting taxes. It is under such circumstances that they have made such a statement. This indicates that they want to say that they are not only strong domestically, but are also seeking international recognition now. They want to claim that they are such a power in this region now that no problem can be resolved without them. The question is, what will Bangladesh do in this circumstance? The answer is that there is no scope for Bangladesh to come to an understanding with any such separationist group.
Q :
What role is China, Russia, India and such countries playing in Myanmar's present circumstances?
The three countries that you have mentioned as providing support and backing to Myanmar. The stand of these countries hasn't changed even after a democratic government was ousted and replaced by a military rule there. These three countries have major strategic interests in Myanmar's Rakhine state. A deep sea port has been constructed under China's special economic zone in Kyaukpyu. They are setting up an oil refinery there. This port and refinery are important for China's energy security. If the Malacca strait is shut down in the event of a war, China can use this port to keep up its fuel supply. This will ensure the supply of oil, gas, LNG and everything. There will be a direct railway line from here to China's Yunan province.
In the meantime, India has taken initiative to reconstruct and use the Sittwe port which had been damaged during World War II. The Kaladan multimodal highway will lead from here to India's northeastern states. The Kaladan highway is extremely important to India. Russia has economic interests there. They want a specialised economic zone there.
Strategically speaking, the Rakhine state is a very important region. It is an entrance to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. One of the six BRI corridors of China will go through this state. As the Rakhine state is very attractive to these three countries, Bangladesh will have to understand these strategic aspects and proceed with this in mind.
Q :
Bangladesh has approached its friendly countries for their support regarding the Myanmar issue. Do you think that the policies and strategies adopted by Bangladesh so far have been appropriate?
Bangladesh called the representatives of certain friendly countries and explained the situation to them and asked for their support. This will not yield any tangible results. We displayed our diplomatic weakness when the refugee crisis evolved. Neither ASEAN nor SAARC stood by us. If any pressure is to be applied on Myanmar, this must be done by China, India and Russia. Myanmar must be sent a message through them that what they are doing on the Bangladesh border is not acceptable. Nothing will be effective other than approaching these three countries. If the situation worsens, we will have to go to the UN Security Council. China and Russia have veto powers there. The bottom line is, we cannot get embroiled in any conflict and we must seek a peace resolution to this crisis through diplomatic means. But we must have the capacity to exert force behind our diplomacy and this must be clearly displayed. If a threat to our national security arises, there will be need for national consensus. If military capacity is added to national consensus, that will function as a deterrent power. If these factors are there, then diplomacy functions effectively.
Q :
Thank you
Thank you too