Perilous relations between neighbours

When it comes to your neighbor, you cannot be completely oblivious. It is better to be aware of the neighbor’s affairs and activities. The same goes all the more for countries which share a border. The ongoing Russo-Ukraine war has been regarded as the biggest neighboring country conflict since World War II. Months prior to that, tensions arose between China and Taiwan due to Nancy Pelosi visiting the latter. Everyone thought an all-out war would break out after Taiwan’s military shot down a trespassing Chinese drone but things appear to have cooled down a bit. Perhaps China realised that escalating open warfare would be ill-timed and costly. Sanctions imposed by the UN on China may prove to be detrimental to the country’s economy, not to mention the fact that it has so many exports to several parts of the world. However, the same cannot be said of Myanmar. Recently, there have been several incidents of shootouts and mortar fire along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and the country seemed to have paid no heed to the warnings delivered by the Bangladesh government.

What’s more surprising is that Myanmar’s ambassador in Bangladesh has been repeatedly summoned by the Bangladesh government and even after assuring to cause no more shelling on the mainland of our country, firing can still be heard almost on a daily basis in Ghundhum Union of Naikhongchhari in Bandarban. Residents there have spoken of how they cannot sleep at night due to fear of mortar shells. Many are said to be moving away from there.

The incidents of these shootings are due to a conflict between the Arakan Army and the military junta government (known officially as the Tatmadaw) of Myanmar. The Arakan Army is the armed organisation of Rakhine state in Myanmar, which is located on the south-east of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Recently, the Tatmadaw conducted several airstrikes in this particular region, in order to subdue the operating rebel insurgents. Due to being at such close proximity, these open artillery attacks have reached the territory of Rakhine’s immediate neighbor – Bangladesh.  The first mortar shell was found on Sunday, 28 August and since then, a succession of these followed. The issue should no longer be considered trivial because a month has passed since then with no improvement to the situation, despite the multiple summoning of Burma ambassador in Bangladesh.

The Awami League government has expressed deep concerns regarding the issue, which involved sending complaints to UN and ASEAN. These organisations stand in favour of Bangladesh, as they are opposed to the military regime of Myanmar. Unfortunately in Bangladesh, many remain unaware of the matter in hand, which is worrying if we think about the long term outcomes. Burma’s geo-politics is complex yet necessary to comprehend as we are already under a huge refugee crisis involving the Rohingyas. Myanmar is a large country with many states that are in open rebellion at present. Prominent among them are Kachin, Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Rakhine.

History tells us that Myanmar civil war actually began way back in 1948, with the Bamars being the principal instigators of the conflict. The Bamars have a tradition of possessing a supremacist mentality, while looking down upon the other ethnic groups as inferiors. The Rohingyas can be a classic example of victims of this attitude and being Muslim does not help either. Back in 1948, the original dispute began among the Bamars themselves. The two main conflicting parties were the communists and the Karen nationalists.

Therein followed an interval of power struggle with unsuccessful parliamentary exercise along the years until the coup d’etat in March, 1962 when finally the Tatmadaw under General Ne Win overthrew the then democratic government and seized power. Ne Win’s government began detaining several protesters and ethnic minorities. With the country under an autocratic government and Ne Win in no mind for compromise, several ethnic groups began forming their own factions of insurgents for the ultimate gain of autonomy against military junta. The first to do so were the Karen guerillas and Kachin Independence Army.

Not long afterwards, many other states followed their example and created their own militias and a full scale civil war erupted throughout the country that remains ongoing to this day. What good news there is for the rebel insurgents is the fact that Tatmadaw itself is weakening, as a result of its internal problems. The root cause behind this is due to the strife within Bamar community – which is now fiercer than ever. Earlier in February 2021, there occurred yet another coup d’etat by Tatmadaw members against government head Aung Sang Suu Kyi, leading to her detainment and establishment of a new military regime. The rebel activists gained upper hand over the following months because of the ensuing chaos within the Bamar community and Tatmadaw.

None of the insurgents at this point want to overthrow the government, rather they want autonomy of their own. Recently, the Wa state in Shan was granted this after years of hard struggle. Some say other states too will achieve their goals in the long run. Bangladesh should be wary of these prospects because an increase in the number of independent states will mean more complicated diplomacy to deal with for our politicians. Let us consider the scenario where Rakhine becomes an autonomous area. A negotiation with Rakhine would anger the regime of Tatmadaw and destroy the possibility of any further diplomatic ties with the country. On the other hand, a negotiation with Tatmadaw might turn Rakhine against Bangladesh that could lead to many skirmishes along the border.

Furthermore, in the event of several states gaining autonomy, the crisis of drug trafficking and arms trade might grow along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. It should be understood that a major source of income for the insurgent states is drug and weapon business. Some of the states which already have autonomy (like Wa) are continuing to utilize it to their advantage, even to the point of exploiting it at times. Drug addiction has already been cited as a major source of concern for Bangladesh youths so imagine what an increasing drug trade would lead to! Moreover, more illegal arms trade can incite internal violence within the country and will certainly be looked down upon by foreign countries, once it catches their attention. To put it shortly, there are several prospects and possible future challenges for Bangladesh in this issue. This would also be pivotal in shaping the international relations of Bangladesh, especially with the United States and its allies.

The US has condemned the acts of violence of the junta government of Myanmar ever since the Rohingya refugee crisis and the 2021 coup d’etat, imposing many sanctions on the country. As a result of the recent border disruptions, Bangladesh’s relations with Myanmar will most likely deteriorate too. In order for Bangladesh to be in the good books of NATO, it is imperative to not form any close ties with the current junta administration. The US has a tendency to meddle in other countries’ affairs which can be seen as either good or bad, depending on the interfered country’s perspective. For Bangladesh, this might turn out to be good as long as its relations with the powerful America are well maintained in the upcoming years to come.

Just in case there a war breaks out between the two South Asian countries, Bangladesh can actually be benefitted, provided it remains in the positive side of the Western powerhouses. Many people have laughed at the idea of such an event unfolding but the same thing was said about Russia and Ukraine in the past years. If anything, history has taught us that future is always uncertain. The prospect of making alliances with the rebel insurgents of Myanmar may also prove to be beneficial for Bangladesh in case such a war happens. At present, the Tatmadaw is losing more and more territory to the militias which many experts see as the beginning of the end of the junta regime.

* Chowdhury Taoheed Al-Rabbi is a student of Bangladesh University of Professionals