You recently made a statement about the July mass uprising, mentioning the state of Bangladesh before the uprising and after. What changes are you seeing in Bangladesh as a result of the uprising?
Swapan Adnan: There's no black and white answer for this. There is both hope and disappointment. I don't have to think twice before giving you an answer to your question, there won't be any case lodged against me for my answer - we are more or less free from such fears. The fact that we have emerged from an autocratic or authoritarian rule is something big.
Has this been simply the fall of an autocratic government? Has the mass uprising brought about any socioeconomic changes or any changes to the state structure?
Swapan Adnan: There have been no structural changes, such as changes in the state, state institutions or the power structure. So there is no scope of calling this a revolution. However, it cannot be described merely as a regime change either; it is more than just a change in rulers. It is more in the sense of the extent of repression that had taken place. Over a thousand people were killed, more than 20,000 injured. Nothing like that had happened in Bangladesh since the liberation war of 1971.
The impact of this has been so severe that it damaged the very fabric of society. If we take that into consideration, we must acknowledge that some form of change has occurred. It is not a revolutionary change, yet certain changes have appeared within the power structures as a result of the uprising. There have been certain changes in the ancillary institutions of power, such as the media. What we used to hear in the media, we no longer hear. Perhaps we can now speak a bit more freely than before.
If we analyse this from a Marxist viewpoint, then in a political and economic sense this is not any sort off bourgeoisie revolution. It is a sort of petty bourgeoisie movement. The movement was sparked off petty bourgeoisie aspirations of getting a job, making money and such. At the start it was not about changing the state structure, there wasn't even mention of overthrowing the government.
The matter of state reforms emerged in discussions, debates and discourses after 5 August. But that still remain just in discussion, not tangible measures have been taken. Work hasn't begun even on implementing the reports of the government's reform commissions.
The mass-uprising was centered on the anti-discriminatory movement of the students. How do you see Bangladesh 10 months since the uprising? Are there any visible initiatives to alleviate the discrimination?
Swapan Adnan: There was a lot of passion behind the students' movement, a lot of enthusiasm. They took to the streets, not bothered about the tear gas, the bullets. They even gave their lives. This is not just a matter of emotion. They had an objective, but that is not quite clear. From the documents and statements and speeches in the media at that time, it does not seem that they any clear idea of what would happen after the uprising.
The protestors spoke against discrimination, but it is not clear whether that was about discrimination just in jobs or overall discrimination. It is a difficult task to bring down the level of discrimination in society. It is a rather utopian concept to imagine a society without wrongdoing, without oppression. But there must be an endeavour to bring the discrimination down to a tolerable level. Frankly speaking, there has been no such visible effort till now.
Some have the opinion that various international powers are involved in such significant political changes in Bangladesh. Do you think this is true about the mass uprising this time too?
Swapan Adnan: I feel that the sheer force and the numbers involved in the uprising were so strong that the autocratic government would have to step down even without any support from outside. International human rights agencies and the United States had for long taken a stand against the former government's oppression and repression. In 2021 the US had imposed sanctions against RAB. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, had sounded warnings on various issues. Overall, the Awami League government was under pressure from the international community.
Now that the uprising is over, in which direction is Bangladesh's politics headed? Many say that our state and politics is veering right.
Swapan Adnan: It is not as if we were left-leaning or centrist before the uprising. In the true sense, we were under an authoritarian rule. The Awami League government was repressive. We can't really say that we have taken a middle-path now.
The current government is not a revolutionary one either. They are talking about limited reforms. The government is moving forward along a relatively conservative path, following the advice of the World Bank and the IMF, and signing agreements with multinational companies.
On the other hand, the influence of religious parties in society and the state has increased. It is true that the right-wing, left-wing, and centrists together forced the authoritarian government to step down. Students from universities, colleges, schools, as well as madrasas participated in the movement. Islamic parties and organisations also played a significant role. It's only natural that this would have an impact on the state and politics.
However, there is no reason to assume that everything they say or do is correct or acceptable. Recently, at a Hefazat-e-Islam rally, it was alarming the way women, particularly the Women's Reform Commission, were vilified. However, I believe the broader public has not accepted such rhetoric. Even so, religion continues to be used in various ways to advance political agendas.
Prothom Alo :
The interim government has formed many commissions aimed at reforms. How optimistic are you concerning reforms?
Swapan Adnan: I believe the recommendations that have come through various commissions are necessary. Although these are not revolutionary ideas, they are constructive. Whether they will be implemented or not depends on the current and future governments.
Prothom Alo :
You have worked on the rural society of Bangladesh. You also have a research-based book titled 'Gram Banglar Rupantor: Samaj, Orthoniti O Gono Andolan' (Transformation of Rural Bengal: Society, Economy, and Mass Movements). How far do you think this uprising has had an impact on the rural society?
Swapan Adnan: Last April, I visited a region in North Bengal. I spoke to leaders from many parties including Awami League, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. I also talked to influential people in the rural society. From their conversations, it seemed that while there were movements in the cities, such movements did not take place in the villages.
However, after 5 August, local Awami League leaders went into hiding. Union parishad chairmen and upazila chairmen fled. This had never happened before. From the top levels of the party down to the grassroots, people were angry at the Awami League leaders and activists. Many Awami League leaders' homes in the villages were attacked and some were set on fire. Not all of these incidents were necessarily politically motivated. Some could have been due to personal grievances.
Another thing I observed is that the wealthy classes in the villages, the elites and landlords, did not flee. Among them are supporters of both the Awami League and BNP. Each of them has their own sphere of influence. Where the power structure of rural society was connected with the state apparatus, changes have occurred; in other areas, it has not.
One reason for these concerns is that the US Pacific Strategy is clearly anti-China. We do not know whether Bangladesh is in any way part of this US strategy or plan. However, there is no realistic basis for Bangladesh to become part of such a strategy
You have done research on the Rohingya issue. There is a lot of talk in Bangladesh now over the Rohingya issue and various activities along the Myanmar border. What do you think about all of this?
Swapan Adnan: The Rakhine state in Myanmar, which we commonly call Arakan, is a place where the Rohingyas are not the majority but a minority. The Buddhist Rakhine people are the majority there. There used to be a good relationship between these two communities. However, in 2012, a there were riots and many Rohingya Muslims were killed. Millions of Rohingyas were detained in camps.
Afterwards, a kind of resistance emerged among the Rohingyas. Several armed groups were formed, one of which is the ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army). In 2016, ARSA attacked a police checkpoint. Following this, the Myanmar military brought in heavy weaponry, launched operations, and prepared for a kind of war. As a result, millions of Rohingyas were forced to flee to Bangladesh.
However, ARSA’s attack was just an excuse for the Myanmar military who had already been oppressing the Rohingyas. One major reason was that the Rohingyas had refused to accept the Myanmar government’s proposed National Verification Card. Accepting this card would have meant acknowledging that they were not citizens of Myanmar.
By refusing the card, the Rohingyas showed a kind of silent protest. This angered the Myanmar junta government. They not only killed Rohingyas and detained them in camps but also burned and destroyed their villages and homes. As a result, even if the Rohingyas return to Rakhine, they have no opportunity to reclaim their land or homes.
In recent years, there have been many changes in Myanmar’s internal politics and simultaneously in the situation in Rakhine. Various ethnic groups in Myanmar are engaged in armed struggles against the junta government. Among them are the Buddhist people of Rakhine, who form the Arakan Army.
The Arakan Army is a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance fighting against the junta government. What is important here is that China maintains relations with both the junta government and the Arakan Army. This is because China has many economic and geopolitical interests in Rakhine. On the other hand, the United States has declared its presence and strength-building in the region under its Indo-Pacific strategy. Additionally, India has become involved in various ways. As a result, the Bangladesh-Myanmar border area around Rakhine has become a geopolitical hotspot.
Prothom Alo :
There's talk of a humanitarian corridor or channel. What's the significance of this?
Swapan Adnan: The government has not yet said anything clearly about a corridor or channel. It is being said that the United Nations will deliver relief materials which will be transported through Bangladesh. One point to note is that these relief materials could have been delivered with Bangladesh's involvement anyway. So a logical explanation is needed as to why Bangladesh has been involved in this way. Since such an explanation has not been provided, various concerns and speculations have arisen.
One reason for these concerns is that the US Pacific Strategy is clearly anti-China. We do not know whether Bangladesh is in any way part of this US strategy or plan. However, there is no realistic basis for Bangladesh to become part of such a strategy.
It must be remembered that Bangladesh is a small country. On top of that, there are already many questions regarding the country’s political stability. Furthermore, given the recent deterioration in our relationship with India, maintaining a friendly relationship with China is very important for us. In such a situation, becoming part of any adventurous initiative could be risky and may lead to serious danger for Bangladesh.